Event EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications 25th July 2024, 3:00PM BST Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November. What are the implications for economies and markets if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to...
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Budget and geopolitics in focus The full Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on 23rd July - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. Meanwhile, developments... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Modi in Moscow: old friends, new context Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow next week will irk the West, but it should be read as a sign of India seeking to reap economic gains from its non-aligned status rather than an effort to position... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not... 1st July 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The US election and EMs Under a second Trump administration, the imposition of large tariffs on China would hurts its economy but could speed up investment in manufacturing capacity elsewhere. However, a broader global... 28th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on... 20th June 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Europe leaves the road open for China’s EV-makers China protested the European Commission’s imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles this week but, if the EU goes no further, China’s government is likely to see this as a... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus EU to move cautiously on China de-risking In the coming years, we expect Europe to raise barriers to trade and investment with China but to do so in a targeted and gradual manner. If so, there would be big implications for some sectors... 7th June 2024 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update Why are shipping costs surging again? Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Spotlight 2024: US outperformance and the future of macro and markets leadership 1718265600 The global economy has been marked by the outperformance of the US economy and its financial markets. But past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will... 24th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
