Europe Economics Update Raising our long-run ECB interest rate forecast We have recently published detailed analysis arguing that equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are now higher than they were before the pandemic, and that they will continue to rise over... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
India Economics Weekly Investment growth shows signs of softening Investment growth held up well in the first half of the year but there are signs that it is entering a softer patch. Meanwhile, despite the encouraging inflation data from September, the RBI is... 13th October 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Industry no offset for slump in property credit demand An increase in lending to other parts of China’s economy has provided a counter-balance to the slump in credit demand that was triggered by the property crisis, but still only a partial one. 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: rate cuts won’t prevent a sharp slowdown Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to... 3rd October 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy buckling under weight of high interest rates We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to... 26th September 2023 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreigners staying away, consumers perking up When officials launched the “Invest in China” campaign in March, they had hoped 2023 would be the year in which foreign investment came roaring back, supported by the removal of COVID restrictions... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Downturn will prompt policy easing next year Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets... 22nd September 2023 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2023) The unexpectedly strong rebound in activity last quarter means that the RBNZ may well judge it has more work to do. All told, there are growing risks that the Bank will not only hike again, but also... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
