FX Markets Update

The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach

With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust...

21st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Recycling’s role in securing critical minerals and metals

China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way...

21st August 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlook

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After a summer of extraordinary economic, market and political developments, what can investors expect through the end of 2024?

Global Economics Update

The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire

The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region...

19th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (August 2024)

The latest data generally suggest that growth will be positive but unspectacular in the second half of this year. Survey indicators point to a potential slowdown in world industrial production and...

15th August 2024 · 0 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing

The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall...

14th August 2024 · 17 mins read

Commodities Update

History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas

Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Shipping costs still elevated, but no longer rising

Container shipping costs have fallen back slightly in the past few weeks. And while the potential for further shipping disruptions makes the outlook for shipping costs highly uncertain, as things...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

EU natural gas prices chart their own course

It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat; whereas some...

9th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Taking stock of the recent market turmoil

Financial markets have generally now unwound about half of the big moves from late last week and early this week, helped by jobless claims data today soothing concerns over a US economic recession. In...

8th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs

Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect...

7th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

China, not a US slowdown, the key for industrial metals

Following another leg down in industrial metals prices, this time due to growing worries about a US recession and the broader financial market carnage, we still think that prices will fall further...

7th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Investment recovering, but not without risks

While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama

The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider.

5th August 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Chart Pack

FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data...

2nd August 2024 · 1 min read