Industrial Metals Update

China property contraction to hit metals prices hard

In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now...

10th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Chinese gold craze likely to unwind later this year

We think the price of gold will have eased back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated.

9th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

World trade edging up as freight rates sink

After a historically weak 2023, there are early signs of a modest turnaround in world goods trade which we expect to endure. Meanwhile, global container shipping costs have halved – and those for...

9th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Maintaining market confidence is key to managing “snowballing” public debt

Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset allocation in an equity bubble

We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we...

4th April 2024 · 29 mins read

FX Markets Outlook

US dollar still likely to weaken later in 2024

The US dollar has started the year on the front foot as US growth and inflation again surprised to the upside, prompting the Fed to (again) take a more hawkish stance than other major central banks...

4th April 2024 · 24 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Excess Savings RIP

We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in...

3rd April 2024 · 20 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs continue to suggest global industry is recovering

March’s manufacturing PMIs provided further evidence that global industry is past the worst. And although higher industrial output has caused price pressures to increase in some advanced economies, it...

2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Governments can accelerate green jobs shift

While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a...

2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics

Shipping Disruption Dashboard: New Charts on Baltimore

Click here to visit our Shipping Disruption Dashboard, which we have updated and extended to include analysis of the Baltimore port closure.

28th March 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Baltimore tragedy not a major issue for energy flows

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are...

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Q2 could be a good one for equities and bonds

Equities have enjoyed another strong quarter and, while a lot of good news is priced in, we think they can extend their winning streak. Sovereign bonds have, by contrast, struggled over Q1; but we...

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Currencies calm ahead of next round of key US data

The US dollar has eked out small gains against some major currencies so far this week, leaving the DXY index just below 105 at the time of writing. During an otherwise quiet week, the February PCE...

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Five highlights from March

This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in March, including the launches of our New Three Export Indices and our second annual Climate Economics Outlook.

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

On course for a soft landing

In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US...

28th March 2024 · 45 mins read