Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Europe’s deleveraging to increase pressure on Gulf businesses Ample liquidity coupled with a decreasing reliance on foreign funding mean that most banks in the Gulf are well-placed to weather any storm in the euro-zone’s financial system. But deleveraging in... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does our new oil price forecast mean for the Gulf? On the back of a brighter outlook for the US economy and concerns over supply, we have nudged up our forecast for Brent crude prices to end the year at $95 per barrel ($85pb previously). Although this... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Explaining our forecasts for the Gulf economies We think that GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could fall to around 3.8% in 2012, down from 7.2% last year (and lower than most analysts expect). Admittedly, healthy balance... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Crunch time for Egypt Egypt’s talks this week with the IMF over a $3.2 billion package could prove to be a defining moment in the post-Mubarak era. With FX reserves now at dangerously low levels, external financing is... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflationary pressures mounting in Saudi Arabia and Egypt In contrast to other regions, February’s inflation data from Saudi Arabia and Egypt show that price pressures are mounting. In Saudi, strong domestic demand and favourable base effects are largely to... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa’s new parliaments at risk of losing sight of economy A lack of policy direction in North Africa is jeopardising the already-sluggish economic recovery. Unemployment has reached record highs in both Egypt and Tunisia, fiscal and external positions are... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack High oil prices to swell Gulf coffers The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC: full political union a non-starter King Abdullah’s plan for a full political union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is unlikely to materialise. Although each country within the GCC is similar both in terms of economic structure... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook 'Arab Spring' puts the focus on near-term divergence It is becoming clear that one year on from the start of the ‘Arab Spring’ several countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are facing difficult transitions. Most of these are in... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taxation plans in the Gulf are good news, but will take time Given that public finances are vulnerable to swings in oil prices, rumours that Qatar and other Gulf countries are considering Value-Added Tax (VAT) to diversify revenue sources are welcome. Indeed... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syria: A prolonged crisis is on the cards The Arab League’s uncharacteristically unified position on Syria last year has quickly reversed. While some countries, led by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), favour a tough stance, others... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
