UK Economics Chart Pack Past the nadir, but normal a long way off While the latest data suggest that our estimate that GDP has fallen by an eyewatering 25% from peak to trough is in the right ballpark, it looks as though the most restrictive parts of the coronavirus... 5th May 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market faces serious downsides The housing market will take a deep hit from the coronavirus. We expect housing transactions and housebuilding to drop by 70% in Q2 this year, as physical distancing measures halt activity. Meanwhile... 28th April 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Market functioning restored, but risks remain Strains in the financial markets have generally eased due to policymakers’ decisive action and equity markets have rebounded on hopes that the spread of the coronavirus is slowing. Of course, asset... 21st April 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Economy will struggle to get back to full health We think it will take the economy a few years to recover from an unprecedented hit to GDP of around 25% triggered by the lockdown implemented to contain the coronavirus. That’s because despite the... 16th April 2020 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Scale of the economic carnage is becoming apparent The scale of the economic damage in Switzerland and the Nordics following the imposition of draconian virus-related containment measures is becoming all too apparent. Business surveys have plunged... 8th April 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic costs of lockdown will be huge It’s become clearer that the economic costs of the lockdown to contain the coronavirus will be huge. The plunge in the activity PMIs in March provide some tentative support to our view that GDP could... 2nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: COVID-19 to drive a plunge in values Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, the hit to real estate markets is still uncertain. The drop in economic output expected in the first half of this year, along... 27th March 2020 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook COVID-19 to hit property values by at least 8% in 2020 The ever-changing economic effects of COVID-19 mean that the impact on real estate markets is highly uncertain. It is clear that the sharp contraction in economic activity and deterioration in... 20th March 2020 · 25 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sterling big casualty of financial market disarray 18th March 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Coronavirus hit to the economy is coming The economy started the year on a strong note, but it is only a matter of time before it succumbs to the effects of the coronavirus. To reflect the weaker global backdrop and the likelihood that... 5th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Waiting for the contagion Other than a lengthening of supplier delivery times in February, there is little evidence that the shutdown in the Chinese economy has had much impact on the euro-zone economy so far. Indeed, business... 4th March 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets may be caught out on interest rates We think the financial markets will be caught out this year by a decent acceleration in the quarterly rate of GDP growth preventing interest rates from being cut below 0.75%. And if we are right to... 12th February 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Activity no longer in rate-cutting territory Signs that the economy has turned a corner support our view that interest rates won’t be cut from 0.75% this year. After all, the activity PMIs are no longer in the territory where rates have been cut... 6th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Coronavirus a downside risk to already weak growth The euro-zone economy ended 2019 on a weak note and the outlook for early 2020 remains gloomy. Euro-zone GDP slowed from 0.3% q/q in Q3 to 0.1% q/q in Q4, with contractions in French and Italian GDP... 5th February 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack To cut, or not to cut, that is the question The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on whether to cut rates in January rests on a knife edge and could go either way. The MPC must weigh up the weakness of the economy and low inflation in Q4... 16th January 2020 · 8 mins read
