Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to outperform in Q3 We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries. At the same time, supply will remain relatively... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large... 28th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rebound in prices likely to be short-lived Most commodity prices recouped some of their post-FOMC losses this week. Investor concerns surrounding Fed tightening have seemingly eased, which weighed on the dollar. At the same time, news that a... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) Average daily global aluminium production edged up in May as smelters continued to take advantage of high prevailing prices. We think that production will rise further in the near future. 21st June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly This week’s sell-off a sign of things to come Commodity prices fell sharply this week following a more hawkish than expected Fed meeting and a disappointing batch of activity data out of China. Both developments are in line with our forecast of... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Despite an uptick in domestic production, US commercial crude stocks plummeted last week as refinery throughput rose and net imports slumped. However, we suspect that the pace of draws will slow in... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Industrial slowdown in China a headwind for prices The prices of most industrial commodities held up fairly well this week. However, the slowdown in broad credit growth and the fall in volume terms of China’s imports of industrial commodities in May... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) OPEC’s oil production increased sharply in May on the back of higher quotas and Saudi Arabia starting to phase out its voluntary production cut. Production will rise again in both June and July in... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar no longer in a sweet spot Even after accounting for a fall in Brazilian production and a rise in global demand, we still expect the size of the global sugar market surplus to increase in 2021/22, which will weigh on prices. 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s iron and copper imports to fall further China’s imports of industrial commodities, particularly iron ore and unwrought copper, eased back in May. We expect import volumes of both these commodities to fall further in the coming months as... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices to rise a little further as OPEC+ hold the line In what proved to be one of the shortest OPEC+ meetings ever, the group agreed this week to stick to its previously planned increase in output in July. Oil prices rose sharply on the back of the... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Prices to be falling by end-year Cold weather in parts of the northern hemisphere helped push up the prices of coal and natural gas last month, while oil prices also rose. We still think that average energy prices will be higher this... 2nd June 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Most commodity prices to fall back before long Prices generally rose in May, bolstered by signs of recovery in the global economy – led by the US – and stronger commodities demand. While prices could make further gains in the near term, we expect... 2nd June 2021 · 7 mins read
