Latin America Economics Update Few signs of financial stress as credit bubbles deflate Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that Latin America’s credit bubbles are gradually deflating and so far this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors. Non... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy and Ireland the losers from bank stress test The latest EU bank stress tests confirm that, on the whole, the region’s banks are in a much healthier position than a few years ago. However, there are still significant problems in some countries’... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US Treasuries, credit spreads and the hunt for yield We doubt that spreads on US corporate bonds are set to widen, even though we expect the yields of Treasuries to rise as the Fed tightens policy faster than investors currently anticipate. Past form... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How big a threat are Italy’s banks? Italian banks are in trouble and there are no quick fixes for their problems. We think that policymakers will provide support to lenders this year, but this is unlikely to resolve banks’ underlying... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s tightening cycle has further to go The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its deposit and lending rates by 50bp each in whatwas Indrajit Coomaraswamy’s first monetary policy meeting as governor. With credit growing at... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico? In contrast to the prevailing view that tight credit conditions have been a constraint on Mexican growth, the debt ratio has actually increased at a reasonably sharp pace over the past five years... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Credit is still expanding at a fast enough pace to provide support to the economy over the next couple of quarters. However, today's figures provided signs that the boost to credit growth from policy... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Q2 GDP & June Activity While China is almost certainly expanding at a slower rate than its GDP data suggest, rapid state sector investment does appear to have kept growth broadly stable last quarter. Growth is more likely... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016) Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016) Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis? There is no easy solution to the euro-zone’s banking problems, but the risks of doing nothing are too large for policymakers to simply sit on their hands. We think that policymakers will find a way to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loss of AAA rating wouldn't raise borrowing costs S&P’s decision to revise Australia’s AAA credit rating from stable to negative is another political blow for the Coalition, but it doesn’t mean much for the financial markets, the States or the banks 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
