China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) A stronger end to the quarter didn’t prevent growth from slowing in Q2 and we see more weakness on the horizon. Activity held up better than anticipated, but we expect this strength to be temporary. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Housing starts to drop It is inevitable that housing starts will drop back from June’s elevated level and we expect the decline over the next 12 months to be steeper than others anticipate. 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Economics Update A mini-bubble is building in Japan’s property market Froth has returned to Japan’s housing market, especially in urban areas where prices are now back to levels seen just before the collapse of the property bubble in the early nineties. A price... 10th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage approvals not expected to last Lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring an upturn in housing activity. True, there was a strong rise in mortgage approvals last month as borrowers took advantage of falling rates. But this was... 9th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) and Housebuilding (Q1) While house prices edged down in June, the Halifax index is still an outlier compared to the other main indices. Meanwhile, housing starts cooled in Q1. Looking ahead we expect the market to stay weak... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Weak PMIs don’t herald housebuilding slump The construction PMI fell sharply in June, but we doubt that housing starts will see a comparable decline. However, with Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we do expect a small fall in housebuilding... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications surged in June, as existing borrowers took advantage of declining mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile, house purchase applications also rose, but only modestly. Looking ahead, we... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun.) According to the Nationwide, house price growth was very subdued June. And while the Brexit outcome is as uncertain as ever, the already high level of house prices suggests a rebound in the housing... 2nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) We expect the pace of house price declines will continue to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New home sales rebound The recent rebound in new home sales in Toronto is an encouraging sign that the local housing market is not about to emulate the sharp falls in prices in Vancouver. 4,794 new homes were sold in... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Home equity loans to have limited impact The full details of the new first-time buyer (FTB) equity loan scheme do not change our view that it will have little effect on the housing market. While the recent drop in mortgage rates will help to... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Assessing the case for build to rent A high house price to rent ratio disadvantages the development of build-to-rent, relative to build-to-sell. And with capital values unlikely to grow as quickly as they have done in the past, total... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) High LTI and LTV lending saw little movement in Q1, despite competitive pressures on lenders, suggesting that mortgage lending is primarily constrained by demand. With uncertainty set to persist for... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
