Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US , we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the premium vanishing, as happened for instance at the peak …
18th March 2024
In a big year for elections, this is the biggest. India’s general election begins on 19 th April, with nearly a billion Indians registered to vote and Narendra Modi on course to win a third term as prime minister. But even if the conclusion seems …
The pandemic-induced “great migration” fuelled rapid growth for apartment rents and house prices in southern metros. But a huge supply response in many of those apartment markets threatens to unwind recent rent gains, while for those single-family …
It's been a tough few years for China's stock market, which has been, at times, one of the worst performers in the world. But it's turned around over the past couple of months, with some policy support seemingly on the way and the economy gathering a bit …
Stretched affordability limits future price gains House prices stabilised in February and, despite emerging signs of financial stress among households, we believe that the risk of renewed price declines is limited. Nonetheless, with affordability so …
Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest rates. Since the publication of our previous Capital …
The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger, whereas prices in most major and midwestern metros have …
Weak end to 2023, but better start to 2024 The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth forecast for …
Vladimir Putin secured a record victory in Russia’s presidential election over the weekend. The focus now will be on whether this emboldens Putin to devote more resources to the war effort, whether policymakers push through unpopular non-war fiscal …
Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated), then Vietnam should benefit from a new round of Trump …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . A decent start to 2024 despite a still fragile consumer China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal …
We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time, especially if – as we expect – yield differentials …
15th March 2024
Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy rate. These expectations will be put to the test next …
A good and bad week for Milei There was renewed optimism about Argentine president Javier Milei’s economic plans earlier this week. The government secured a successful swap of local currency debt (equal to about $50bn), extending the maturity profile of …
A few hot(ish) US inflation prints and the market has become spooked about how easily the Federal Reserve can get back to its 2% target. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses …
It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refineries. While, in …
The past few months have seen risk premia compress across most financial markets, and stress across core financial markets appears lower than at any point since mid-2021. While some lingering risks remain, we think that an emerging bubble in equity …
Pressure building in Turkey ahead of the election Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31 st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest …
Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic …
Households are offsetting the impact of high interest rates by paying down less of their debt. While that has helped the economy to avoid recession, it also suggests there will be less of a boost from interest rate cuts than in the past, because …
Nigeria eyes up return to Eurobond market The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to plug the budget …
Campaign will boost demand but also supply On Wednesday, the State Council published an action plan to promote the large-scale upgrading of equipment and trading-in of consumer goods. We already discussed the implications of the latter in our previous …
Overview – The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be cautious amid a softening labour market. …
Consumer confidence edges down The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing. As the current conditions index was …
January’s GDP figures received the most attention this week, mainly as they suggested the economy may have exited recession. (See here .) But while there was better news on demand, the same cannot be said for the supply-side of the economy. The rise in …
Overview – A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the end of 2025, suggests that further …
Unwinding of weather distortion boosts manufacturing In line with the rebound in retail sales, manufacturing output was boosted in February by the unwinding of the hit from the winter snowstorms that weighed on production in January. Even as that boost …
CBC on hold despite booming economy Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. GDP growth has …
ECB postpones some big decisions After 15 months of waiting, this week the ECB finally published the outcome of its operational framework review. We set out the key points here . In the near term, the status quo will largely be maintained, with the …
The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar somewhat overvalued in our assessment. At this point, we …
Inflation hits 31%, but CBN likely to hold fire on further rate hikes Nigeria’s headline inflation accelerated to a higher-than-expected 31.7% y/y in February and the naira’s latest sharp falls mean it will continue to march towards 35% y/y over the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Rebound in credit growth blown off course Bank loan growth in China decelerated to its slowest pace on record in February, while broad credit growth reversed most of its recent …
BoJ set to unwind negative rates next week A preliminary tally published by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO) today showed that pay hikes in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) reached 5.28%, up sharply from 3.6% last year and the …
Global outperformance set to continue This week we published our Q2 India Economic Outlook . The key point is that while growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India will remain a global outperformer. We are forecasting GDP growth of 7% in …
This Global Markets Focus looks at whether Chinese equities’ recent rally heralds the start of something larger and more sustained. It argues that they could continue to do well over the next year or two, both in absolute terms and relative to many other …
Property downturn set to weigh on iron ore prices As our China team explains here , the downturn in China’s construction sector has barely started but once it does happen, it could knock off one percentage point from GDP growth. Australia got a glimpse of …
Will 2024 mark the end of the downturn in the European commercial real estate market? And how strong will the recovery be when it comes? Our European commercial property team held a 20-minute briefing all about the market outlook. During this 20-minute …
14th March 2024
Inflation in Switzerland has surprised most other forecasters, including the SNB, this year by falling to just 1.2% in February, which was the ninth month in a row that it has been below 2%. We think this will encourage the SNB to reduce the policy rate …
Interest rates unchanged at 5.25% and BoE to keep hawkish guidance But data not the guidance counts We think rates will fall to 3.00% in 2025 rather than to 4.00% as investors expect At the policy meeting on Thursday 21 st March, the Bank of England will …
It is no surprise that the confidence of US consumers is closely aligned to the health of the stock market these days. After all, the share of households that own equities is the highest in at least three decades. With that in mind, the recent surge in …
Higher inflation a cost to Egypt’s policy shift The fall in the Egyptian pound last week has raised concerns of a fresh surge in inflation, which wasn’t helped by February’s strong reading. However, while we may see another acceleration in March, we think …
Inflation in Norway has fallen more quickly than Norges Bank expected, so at next week’s meeting it is likely to signal that it will cut interest rates sooner than it previously expected, perhaps in Q3. And we think there’s a good chance that it will make …
Recent years have sharpened investor focus on identifying risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the surge in US rates have exposed vulnerabilities, hammered EM currencies and triggered several defaults. But how …
“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data …
Weakness in control group sales suggests January fall wasn’t all due to weather The 0.6% m/m rebound in retail sales in February appears to reflect the unwinding of the drag on sales from the winter storms in early January, but the details suggest that …
Temporary rebound in sales volumes Lower prices mean that the muted 0.2% m/m rise in manufacturing sales in January was better than it looked, with sales volumes rising by a much stronger 1.1%. That strength was entirely due to the resumption of …
Germany's economy is in “troubled waters” and doing “dramatically badly” – and those are just the assessments of its economy minister. But are the recessionary conditions in the euro-zone’s biggest economy merely a cyclical blip or signs of deeper …
There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow rapidly, it could ultimately give a significant boost …
A Biden-Trump rematch is now all but inevitable on November 5 and polls are pointing to a tight race. With Donald Trump threatening to raise tariffs, his team talking about scrapping the Inflation Reduction Act, and the presumptive Republican nominee …
