Filtered by Topic: Property after the pandemic Use setting Property after the pandemic
The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency rates, and with office utilisation rates topping out …
15th July 2022
By increasing the demand for accommodation and boosting rents, the shift to remote work will have put some upward pressure on house prices. But while rents have seen an above-trend increase since the end of 2019, that would only have boosted house prices …
1st June 2022
One of the unforeseen consequences of the homeworking revolution is its negative impact on city centre retail footfall. The evidence suggests that in urban centres there is a link between higher levels of remote work and poorer retail performance, which …
13th May 2022
Structural changes to working patterns and the resultant shifts in office demand will vary by industry and job type. Occupations like life and physical sciences are likely to see a low adoption of remote work, whereas IT sector jobs and those in financial …
13th April 2022
The pandemic turbo-charged a move away from major coastal cities, and that drop in demand led to a sharp fall in their rents relative to the national average. But with those moves now made and cities reopening, we doubt they will continue to get cheaper. …
9th December 2021
Data show a vast divergence in performance across the industrial sector over the last year. While some of the strength is consistent with that in the apartment and office sectors, driven by migration to the South, others have been supported by …
23rd November 2021
Google mobility data show a much fuller recovery in visitors returning to retail and recreation than to the workplace. This supports our view that structural changes will weigh on the office sector more than retail over the next few years, helping to make …
19th November 2021
The faster-than-average recovery in financial sector employment in the Miami metro owes much to new office openings by banking and finance firms in the last 18 months. This has made Miami one of the best-performing office markets since the end of 2019 and …
8th November 2021
Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on performance in cities with large concentrations of …
2nd November 2021
Americans are returning to cities, but the return to the office has been much slower. We see suburban areas being net winners in the residential and retail sectors, although the picture for downtown versus suburban offices is less obvious than the …
22nd October 2021
National office data suggest that suburban office markets have significantly outperformed downtown offices since the onset of the pandemic. But metro-level data point to a more nuanced picture in which metros reliant on commuting have seen downtown areas …
18th October 2021
The Future of Cities: How pandemic changes will affect returns …
13th October 2021
The retail sector appears to be turning a corner, and we think that convenience-oriented Neighbourhood and Community (N&C) centres, out-of-town retail, “destination”-type malls and retail located in “desirable” southern metros are likely to be the …
8th October 2021
In-migration to southern metros with relatively low living costs and high desirability will be positive for office demand in those same metros. We think firms will be encouraged to set up offices in those locations given the growth in their skilled labour …
4th October 2021
We think that for the extra one million footloose American workers created by the pandemic, the cost of living has become far more important to their decision of where to live than in the past, while the “desirability” of a metro and its climate have also …
28th September 2021
Apartments kept getting smaller in the second quarter of this year, with the median floor space of units falling to under 1,000 sq. ft., the lowest since records began in 1999. That trend seems at odds with rising demand for larger units to accommodate …
14th September 2021
Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that performance in gateway markets will remain relatively …
10th August 2021
There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But once the dust settles, the shift to working from home …
9th July 2021
A year ago, we were just digesting the impact of remote working, but already permanent change looked likely. And while we know more now and continue to refine our views, we see little reason to change our conclusions from last summer that office demand …
23rd June 2021
The pandemic has heightened occupiers’ focus on the quality and green credentials of the space they occupy. This trend is set to impact on demand, with modern, well-configured buildings with green building certifications set to attract tenants at the …
The acceleration of structural shifts is likely to result in some conversion of retail and to a lesser extent office space to urban logistics use. However, we think these conversions will be relatively limited given the significant shortfall in values …
9th June 2021
Retail has been the hardest hit of the major sectors during the pandemic, though hope is returning with the re-opening of economies. But new challenges are emerging. In particular, we think that more home working will divert (already-weak) instore retail …
18th May 2021
Increased demand for larger apartments to accommodate working from home is already evident in NYC, where the inventory of units with two or more bedrooms has seen a sharper decline compared to smaller units. With working from home set to stay even as …
14th May 2021
There currently appears to be little economic scope for conversions to residential across the six major office markets. But our forecasts of falling values and rising vacancy in the office sector suggest the incentive will increase, particularly in NYC …
7th May 2021
More working from home will inevitably change cities as we know them. However, cities are more than just workers. This means that cities where a higher share of jobs can be done remotely are not necessarily the ones where the impact of remote working on …
5th May 2021
Few office or retail markets currently look economically viable for residential conversions. However, expected falls in values, particularly for retail, and acute housing shortages suggest that there is scope for conversions to increase in many markets. …
9th April 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more fundamental economic decline in the world’s largest urban …
5th January 2021
The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural changes to demand may limit a return to former glories. …
22nd December 2020
Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the …
19th November 2020
An abrupt U-turn on workers returning to their offices last month signalled that the virus will continue to dominate lives in the UK into next year. In fact, we think office working may never quite be the same. As more remote working could reduce space …
19th October 2020
Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural change in offices, the rental outlook is expected to …
8th October 2020
Low utilization of office space supports our expectations of weak short-term demand. And, despite some firms raising concerns over productivity as the current remote work “experiment” continues, there are good reasons to think that these will not have a …
23rd September 2020
Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs should prove short-lived. Most of those leaving cities …
9th September 2020
Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the change in required office space and the effect on …
24th August 2020
We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least once a week. Even with a heroic supply response through …
6th August 2020
Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future across the main property types. We start this by …
15th July 2020
A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the impact on spending would be greater. But so long as the …
4th February 2020
