Filtered by Topic: Geoeconomics Use setting Geoeconomics
We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here .) This Update answers some of the questions that we received, including …
5th September 2024
Attention at the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation that started today in Beijing will be on the extent to which China can stave off competition from the US to strengthen ties with the region. Relations with China are, for the most part, likely to remain …
4th September 2024
China’s announcement last week that it would curb exports of antimony, a critical mineral, was another example of global fracturing unfolding in the commodities arena. Recycling offers an obvious way for the US and its allies to shore up their own …
21st August 2024
The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region – would probably not itself be a game-changer for …
19th August 2024
Israel’s economy slowed more than expected in Q2 as weak investment and supply constraints continued to hold back activity. A ceasefire to halt the conflict in Gaza would clearly be positive for the near-term growth outlook, but we doubt the economy would …
Jordan’s economy has been among the hardest hit from the indirect spillovers of the war in Gaza. While severe balance of payments of strains are likely to be avoided, GDP growth will suffer as the key tourism sector has taken the brunt of the impact. And …
14th August 2024
Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs tactically courting investment from China to put …
13th August 2024
Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation is very different to that during the energy crisis. …
12th August 2024
The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to pressure on its already strained public finances, and would …
29th July 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not result in much of a deviation in economic policymaking. …
1st July 2024
Container shipping costs have rebounded in the past month amid a pick-up in demand for goods from China and a possible front-loading of festive orders due to concerns about future shipping disruptions. And shipping costs could yet rise further. Our …
6th June 2024
The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a major …
20th May 2024
The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the election and its implications for economic policy and …
India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential universal tariff on all US imports under a second Trump …
16th May 2024
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
15th May 2024
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
The Iranian strike over the weekend has been largely shrugged off by Israel’s financial markets and on its own is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. The key uncertainty now is how Israel responds. An aggressive Israeli military response that …
15th April 2024
There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving Iran disrupts oil production in the Gulf states is much …
The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there may be some nuances. This Update establishes a framework …
26th February 2024
Note: W e held a client briefing straight after the election weekend to discuss what the vote means for Taiwan and the global economy. View the on-demand recording here . China may respond to a victory for Tsai Ing-wen’s chosen successor in Saturday’s …
10th January 2024
In this Global Economics Update , we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central …
30th November 2023
With a lot of pessimism seemingly already priced in to China’s “risky” assets, we suspect a thawing in US/China relations could give them a boost. But we think their longer-term outlook is less rosy. Meanwhile, we don’t think US/China tensions will have …
17th November 2023
We have raised our gold price forecast to reflect the current heightened geopolitical risk. We think the price will rise further next year as the limited fallout from the conflict won’t prevent the US Fed from starting to cut interest rates in 2024. Our …
9th November 2023
An opposition win in Taiwan ’ s upcoming presidential election could lead to a complete or partial reversal of the economic sanctions that China has imposed on Taiwan ’ s economy during Tsai Ing-wen ’ s presidency. The restrictions on tourism are the …
The weeks leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election in January could be marked by another rise in tensions with China. The most likely outcome of the vote is another DPP presidency. While Lai Ching-te would be a new pair of hands, his election wouldn’t …
20th September 2023
Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, will try to use his meeting with the Chinese president Xi Jinping in Singapore on Saturday to highlight the big improvement in cross-strait relations during his presidency. But while the past few years have seen a …
5th November 2015
