CBC on hold despite booming economy Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. GDP growth has …
15th March 2024
ECB postpones some big decisions After 15 months of waiting, this week the ECB finally published the outcome of its operational framework review. We set out the key points here . In the near term, the status quo will largely be maintained, with the …
BoJ set to unwind negative rates next week A preliminary tally published by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (RENGO) today showed that pay hikes in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) reached 5.28%, up sharply from 3.6% last year and the …
Global outperformance set to continue This week we published our Q2 India Economic Outlook . The key point is that while growth is likely to moderate over the coming quarters, India will remain a global outperformer. We are forecasting GDP growth of 7% in …
Property downturn set to weigh on iron ore prices As our China team explains here , the downturn in China’s construction sector has barely started but once it does happen, it could knock off one percentage point from GDP growth. Australia got a glimpse of …
Higher inflation a cost to Egypt’s policy shift The fall in the Egyptian pound last week has raised concerns of a fresh surge in inflation, which wasn’t helped by February’s strong reading. However, while we may see another acceleration in March, we think …
14th March 2024
South Africa’s struggling PGM producers Lower global metal prices are pushing South Africa’s major producers to contemplate cost-cutting which could lead to lower output and fewer jobs, adding yet another constraint to the modest pick-up in growth that we …
8th March 2024
Today’s softish US non-farm payrolls report , combined with Fed Chair Powell’s relatively neutral testimony to Congress earlier in the week, has put an end to the dollar’s strong start to 2024, and suggests to us that the greenback will remain on the back …
Governor Tiff Macklem dropped a hint this week that the Bank of Canada may be ready to cut rates by June. There was little in the data to dissuade the Bank, with unemployment rising and bankruptcies surging, while a productivity rebound pulled down unit …
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little support for the idea of a renewed upturn in inflation, we …
Sheinbaum’s policy platform to hit fiscal realities Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, revealed her policy plans over the past week which, as expected, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy. But her …
June rate cut coming The main event this week was the ECB meeting on Thursday where the key message was that officials are getting closer to easing policy but want to see more evidence that wage growth and underlying inflation are moderating before …
Setting the record straight on recent HUF weakness The dispute between the Hungarian central bank (MNB) and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent …
The rally in the spot price of gold this week to a new record high of over $2,170 per ounce was the result of several financial and macro drivers that should generally keep prices elevated over 2024. Investors grew more confident that the Fed would begin …
New Productive Forces, old ideas At the top of the premier’s list of Major Tasks for 2024 in his Work Report is a call to develop “New Productive Forces at a faster pace”. NPF is taking a place alongside “common prosperity” in the lexicon of Xi Jinping …
Much ink has been spilled on the Spring Budget this week. For our part, we discussed the macroeconomic and financial market implications in our UK Drop-In and in our UK Economics Focus . The main takeaway is that while the Chancellor was desperate to use …
Activity holding up The second estimate of Korea’s GDP figures published this week confirmed that the economy grew by 0.6% q/q in the final quarter of last year. Encouragingly, the more recent monthly activity data suggest the economy made a decent start …
RBI is stepping in to prevent currency appreciation The Indian rupee has stood out so far this year as being one of only a small handful of EM currencies to have strengthened against the US dollar. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Currencies vs. US$ (% change, …
Household spending could be at a turning point The big news out of Australia this week was that the economy just barely managed to limp along last quarter. To be sure, the 1.5% annual rise in real GDP in Q4 was broadly in line with what the RBA had …
The recession that probably wasn’t Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. For a start, following several weeks of discouraging data on …
The raft of policy reforms announced by the Egyptian authorities yesterday, including a devaluation of the pound and new IMF deal, has put the economy on a path out of its current crisis. There have been false dawns before, but we think that momentum is …
7th March 2024
Cut, cut, cut … oh no, we’ve lost market share According to reports, OPEC+ members will make a decision in the coming week on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts. A number of possibilities have been mooted, ranging from extending cuts for …
1st March 2024
The dollar has remained roughly unchanged against most major currencies over the past two weeks. Given that our expectations for upcoming data releases and central bank meetings – notably, nonfarm payrolls and the ECB meeting next week – are not far from …
Turkish GDP growth continues to run hot Data released this week showed that Turkish GDP growth unexpectedly re-accelerated in Q4, which challenges the view that recent aggressive monetary tightening is rebalancing the economy. We published our initial …
The return to growth in the fourth quarter means it is probably safe to say that the economy has avoided recession, but that is mainly due to rapid immigration. Per capita GDP fell for the fifth quarter running and is now barely higher than in 2016. Ahead …
CBN delivers bold hike but inflation risks remain The Nigerian central bank’s 400bp rate hike and its reaffirmation of its inflation fighting credentials should help provide respite to the naira and inflation. But Nigeria will need to shift away from …
Following the more hawkish speeches from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Christopher Waller last week, that tone continued this week – with regional Fed Presidents including New York’s John Williams repeating the suggestion that interest rate …
Mexico election campaign officially kicks off Today is the first official day of campaigning for Mexico’s election that takes place on 2 nd June. President López Obrador (Amlo) is barred from running but his anointed successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, is well …
Reading the NPC tea leaves China’s legislature will kick off its annual gathering on Tuesday. This typically lasts a week or so. But from the perspective of analysts and investors, the key events are on the first day. These include the delivery of the …
Korea election: reform prospects in the balance President Yoon Suk-yeol has seen a rebound in his popularity in recent weeks, with an opinion poll published today showing an approval rating of 39% – up from a low earlier this year of just 29%. The …
Could there be a tax-cutting Budget bombshell? The rumours this week suggest that the Chancellor may have a bit less to play with in the Budget on Wednesday 6 th March than the £15bn we estimated. As a result, he seems to be considering more revenue …
The main data releases in the euro-zone this week will have done little to dispel ECB policymakers’ view that they should wait patiently before making a decision on when to cut interest rates. Economic activity appears to have made a slow start to the …
HCES underscores need to update CPI index The initial findings of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2022-23 (the full report will be released in June) show a shift in consumption patterns since the previous survey from over a decade …
Third contraction in GDP now likely We doubt that the slump in industrial output in January will prevent the Bank of Japan from ending negative rates over the coming months, but the recent string of disappointing data reinforces our view that this will …
More good news for the RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia should take comfort from the fact that most of the data released this week point to a better balance between demand and supply in the economy. On Wednesday we learnt that CPI inflation came in at …
Even with Ras el Hekma deal, Egypt needs the IMF Headlines in the past week have been dominated by Egypt’s deal to sell the Ras el Hekma project to the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, to provide crucial foreign currency inflows. But, even with this …
29th February 2024
Checking in on clean energy equities The MSCI Global Alternative Energy Index has outperformed the standard MSCI World Energy benchmark since we published an Update in November arguing that we had reached peak-pessimism for clean energy equities. (See …
Key takeaways from South Africa’s Budget South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but an inability to resist calls greater spending ahead of and after the election is likely to derail these fiscal ambitions, …
23rd February 2024
Wage data still offering reasons for caution The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of …
There was no clear direction to prices this week, but a number of individual commodities benefitted from producers announcing cuts to supply. First signs of a pull-back in US natural gas supply Having plummeted in recent weeks, the price of US natural gas …
The tailwind of US equity outperformance appears to be fading for the greenback, as the DXY Index looks set to post its first weekly fall in 2024. A pullback after such a streak isn’t all that surprising, and an upside surprise in PCE data out of the US …
The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait until June – unless the economic and labour market data …
Fed to delay first rate cut until June Fed to wait until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Moreover, when it does begin to loosen policy, we suspect that the Fed …
Venezuela’s inflation plunge In our last Weekly , we flagged Argentina’s inflation problem and the risk that things could get worse before they get better. Data out this week showed that Venezuela may be coming out at the other end of the tunnel. Headline …
Disappointing economic and fiscal forecasts from the OBR haven’t prevented the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, from unveiling a splash at previous fiscal events. This time last year, he was handed £14.5bn of headroom against his fiscal mandate to ensure the …
Funding boost could be large, if banks do their part China’s housing market is still struggling . High frequency data suggest that sales in major cities have ticked up since the start of the year. And price declines eased slightly in January. (See Chart …
This week saw a raft of data releases as well as the publication of the ECB accounts . We think that there are three key takeaways . First, the broad trend of economic stagnation and disinflation in the euro-zone is continuing. The Composite PMI edged up …
Trouble in Thailand Figures published earlier this week showed that Thailand’s economy contracted by 0.6% in the final quarter of last year. Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – GDP is now just 0.5% …
Majority of MPC in no rush to pivot The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show that the committee is …
Import volumes weakest since 2020 We’ve been arguing that Japan is not in recession even though GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters. However, February’s soft flash PMI and the large fall in imports in January hardly instil confidence in the …
