Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Fall in the rupee this year likely to be limited The rupee is up by around 1% against the US dollar so far this year, leaving it in the middle of the pack among other EM currencies. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Currencies vs. US$ (% change, YTD) Sources: …
28th April 2023
With Egyptian policymakers dawdling on the IMF’s reform demand, pressure is growing for another devaluation of the pound and investors are increasingly fearing that a sovereign default could follow. For now at least, there is still a path out of the …
27th April 2023
Door remains ajar for further tightening… The minutes of the MPC’s April meeting – in which the committee voted unanimously to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) for the first time in a year – were published this week. While it has been clear for some …
21st April 2023
Aramco transfer accelerates under Vision 2030 plan Saudi Arabia’s government transferred a further 4% of Aramco to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) this week as part of its efforts to diversify its revenues away from oil as part of Vision 2030. But there …
20th April 2023
Note: Join our Tuesday 18 th April online briefing discussing what China’s Q1 “data dump” tells us about the strength of the country’s reopening recovery. Register Now . The rebound has exceeded most expectations Mixed data have contributed to differences …
14th April 2023
Inflation nearing a peak but devaluation fears linger Egyptian inflation rose to its fastest pace since mid-2017 in March and, while there are signs it could be nearing its peak, mounting pressure on the pound presents a clear upside risk. Data released …
13th April 2023
Raising exports to US$2trn by 2030 a tough task This week marked the start of the government’s new Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). While previous FTPs have had a five-year span and have typically focussed on financial incentives for exporters such as …
6th April 2023
CEE remains in recession in Q1 The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most economies again in Q1. We think the regional downturn will stabilise in Q2, …
Infrastructure boosting construction activity The shape of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound has become clearer over the past week: primarily services-driven, as expected, but with stronger construction activity too, which appears to be mostly about …
Israel’s legal reforms spark constitutional crisis Israel’s political crisis that flared up earlier this week has since calmed down after PM Netanyahu paused the government’s controversial judicial reforms. While tensions may flare up again and Israel’s …
31st March 2023
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Central banks re-upping the pace of tightening Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all delivered more aggressive interest rate hikes this …
Note: Join our 6th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Rosneft, IOC deal will keep Russian oil flowing We’ve made the case in much of our research that, in an increasingly fractured global economy that …
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . H2-oh… Droughts in the Middle East and North Africa are becoming more frequent and more severe, with Morocco and Tunisia experiencing them right now. …
30th March 2023
SARB to follow CBN in delivering dovish hike Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think the South African …
24th March 2023
Russia strengthens China relations after Xi’s visit Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China’s President Xi visited Moscow and the two countries announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped …
Labour reforms could encourage more MNCs The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be optimistic further …
Crisis of confidence at crunch CBE meeting The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision in February to leave interest rates on hold looks to have been a policy misstep and, with inflation surging and growing concerns over the commitment to orthodox policymaking, …
23rd March 2023
The view that interest rates in developed markets may rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated gained further traction this week following US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments on Tuesday. Our US Economics team revised …
10th March 2023
Very weak Q4 figures The fourth quarter GDP figures published over the past few weeks made for grim reading. GDP contracted in around half of the countries covered by our Emerging Asia services. Only India, Indonesia and the Philippines recorded decent …
3rd March 2023
Russia’s economy defied expectations in 2022 Russia’s war in Ukraine, which marks its one year anniversary this week, fundamentally changed the geopolitical and economic landscape in the region. From a macroeconomic perspective, one of the more surprising …
24th February 2023
Malaysia announces modest fiscal tightening Malaysia today announced a modest tightening of fiscal policy for 2023, but the most eye-catching element of the budget was a significant increase in infrastructure spending. The budget deficit is projected to …
Tough times ahead for CEE, after Q4 contraction … Q4 GDP data released across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week were a mixed bag, but show that the regional slowdown at the end of 2022 was (broadly) as we had anticipated. We now know that the …
17th February 2023
Early signs that the inflation tide is turning This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a marked and broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is …
13th January 2023
The narrative surrounding Europe’s energy crisis has completely shifted in recent weeks as warmer-than-normal winter temperatures have reduced heating demand and pushed gas prices down sharply. This will help to improve external positions and lower …
6th January 2023
Chile’s constitutional re-write: Attempt number two After three months of intense negotiations, Chile’s government and opposition parties agreed on a new process to re-write the constitution. This differs from the previous one (which led to a draft …
16th December 2022
Lula starting to show his true colours? Developments this week poured cold water on the rally in Brazil’s financial markets that followed Lula’s election victory. Comments from Lula himself yesterday suggesting that higher spending should be prioritised …
11th November 2022
Inflation & external pressures force the MNB’s hand The surprise decision by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) to tighten monetary policy further today underscores that the economy is facing much stronger inflation and external pressures than its regional …
14th October 2022
Apple production shift boosts local manufacturing Regular readers of our India research will be (perhaps all-too-) familiar with our view that the key to India sustaining rapid economic growth over coming decades is the development of its manufacturing …
The bi-annual Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) bolsters our view that the monetary tightening cycle will continue to take on a distinct path to most other EM central banks. In many ways, the SARB has …
7th October 2022
Turkey doubles down on unorthodoxy The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. After all, Turkey’s external position is …
19th August 2022
