Fed minutes may shed more light on officials’ latest thinking about tapering (14.00 BST) We expect Germany’s industrial production to have edged up in May (07.00 BST) Russia’s headline inflation probably rose last month (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
6th July 2021
EZ retail sales for May likely to underline the strength of economic recovery (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide detail on tapering discussion (Wed.) Reopening probably boosted UK GDP in May (Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly …
2nd July 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by around 500,000 in June (13.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably widened again in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The US …
1st July 2021
We think Sweden’s Riksbank could signal a rate hike in late 2023 (08.30 BST) June’s ISM Manufacturing Index may provide insight on recent supply shortages (15.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key …
30th June 2021
We expect that China’s manufacturing PMIs edged down in June (02.00 BST) The flash estimate of euro-zone HICP inflation probably fell slightly in June (10.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
29th June 2021
UK consumer credit likely to have increased as the economy reopened (09.30 BST) We think economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably stay on hold, but sound more hawkish Key Market Themes …
28th June 2021
Euro-zone inflation likely to have risen above 2% as the economy re-opened (Wed.) June PMIs for Asia may suggest that demand for the region’s exports has peaked (Thu.) We think labour supply shortages continued to limit gains in US payrolls this month …
25th June 2021
We think that US real consumption fell slightly in May… … while change in the core PCE deflator remained high, at 0.6% m/m (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year …
24th June 2021
Germany’s Ifo survey likely to rise again this month (09.00 BST) We don’t expect BoE to suggest it is any closer to tightening policy (12.00 BST) Banxico likely to look through rising inflation (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes As the dust finally begins to …
23rd June 2021
Fed Chair Powell may comment on the FOMC apparent hawkish shift in House testimony Q&A PMIs could reveal whether shortages continued to weigh on manufacturing output in June We expect the Czech central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (13.30 …
22nd June 2021
Euro-zone and UK composite PMIs probably rose further in June (Wed.) BoE meeting should provide clues as to how concerned it is about rising inflation (Thu.) We think US durable orders rose in May, but real consumption declined Key Market Themes We think …
18th June 2021
We think UK retail sales rose further above their pre-pandemic level in May (07.00 BST) The Bank of Japan may extend its emerging lending facility Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The market …
17th June 2021
We expect both the SNB and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold… (8.30/9.00 BST) … and Turkey’s central bank is likely to also stand pat, for now (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
16th June 2021
Fed may begin discussion of how to eventually begin tapering its asset purchases (19.00 BST) We think industrial production growth in China slowed last month (03.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy rate by 75bp to 4.25% (22.30 …
15th June 2021
UK unemployment rate probably fell while wage growth rose in April (07.00 BST) We think that US retail sales fell back from a high level in May (13.30 BST) US industrial production may have risen at a slower pace last month (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
14th June 2021
US consumer confidence and inflation expectations probably picked up in April (15.00 BST) We think UK GDP expanded by 3% m/m in April (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
10th June 2021
ECB may prepare the ground for gradual tapering of PEPP purchases later this year (12.45 BST) US core CPI inflation probably hit a 28-year high in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
9th June 2021
We think May producer price inflation in China rose to its highest level since 2008 (02.30 BST) Central banks in Canada, Poland and Chile are likely to leave rates unchanged Headline inflation probably fell in Mexico in May, but rose in Brazil Key Market …
8th June 2021
Industrial production in Germany probably continued to expand in April (07.00 BST) We forecast only 1.5% Q1 GDP growth in South Africa due the latest virus wave (10.30 BST) We think Chile’s central bank will keep its guidance of tightening later this year …
7th June 2021
We think US core CPI inflation to rose from 3.0% to 3.7% in May (Thu.) ECB likely to drop pledge to keep PEPP purchases significantly higher than in Jan./Feb. (Thu.) The central bank of Russia will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25% (Fri.) Key …
4th June 2021
We think that US nonfarm payrolls rose by around 500k in May (13.30 BST) Employment in Canada may have fallen again last month (13.30 BST) See our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes After a turbulent first …
3rd June 2021
We think that Australia’s GDP expanded by about 0.5% q/q in Q1 (02.30 BST) UK consumer credit data are likely to show that card spending picked up (09.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
1st June 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have risen by 500,000 this month (Fri.) ISM surveys are likely to suggest that supply constraints in the US intensified (Tue. & Thu.) We think China’s manufacturing and services PMIs edged up in May (Mon. & Thu.) Key …
28th May 2021
We think that US real consumption was unchanged in April (13.30 BST) The EC’s measure of euro-zone consumer confidence probably rose in May (10.00 BST) Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market Themes …
27th May 2021
We think US durable goods orders grew by a healthy 4.2% m/m in April (13.30 BST) With inflation subdued, we think the Bank of Korea will leave interest rates unchanged Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here …
26th May 2021
RBNZ likely to leave policy settings on hold despite new housing mandate (03.00 BST) Unemployment in Sweden may have edged down in April (08.30 BST) Read our latest views on currency markets on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market …
25th May 2021
The Ifo Survey in Germany probably rose again in May (07.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil is likely to have jumped, leading to tighter monetary policy (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave rates unchanged but update guidance (13.00 BST) Key …
24th May 2021
Sentiment indicators likely to show recovery gaining momentum in Europe US durable goods orders probably rose further in April… (Thu.) … but personal spending may have flat-lined in real terms as stimulus boost faded (Fri.) Key Market Themes The latest …
21st May 2021
Inflation in Japan probably remained negative in April (00.30 BST) UK retail sales probably surged last months as shops reopened (07.00 BST) We think May PMIs improved in Europe and the UK, but they may have fallen a bit in the US Key Market Themes …
20th May 2021
South Africa’s central bank is likely to keep its rate at 3.5% due to weak economic growth We expect that higher headline inflation in Saudi Arabia will only last until June We think unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in April as wage subsidies ended …
19th May 2021
FOMC minutes to be scrutinised for signs that officials are worried about inflation UK CPI inflation likely to have picked up sharply in April (07.00 BST) We suspect policymakers in South Africa will look through temporary spike in inflation Key Market …
18th May 2021
We think that the UK labour market held up quite well in March (07.00) Chile’s GDP probably rose in Q1, although it faces renewed political uncertainty (13.30 BST) US housing starts probably remained strong last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th May 2021
US producer prices figures may provide further signs of inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Central banks of Mexico and Chile likely to keep policy rates on hold Our new FX Markets Service launches today – click here to find out more Key Market Themes We …
12th May 2021
We think UK GDP grew about by 1.5% m/m in March, marking the start of a rapid rebound E-Z industrial production likely to have grown by around 0.5% m/m in March (10.00 BST) US headline CPI inflation may have risen close to 4% last month (13.00 BST) Key …
11th May 2021
NFIB and JOLT surveys likely to point to growing labour shortages in the US We think that China’s headline inflation jumped from 0.4% to 1.3% in April… (02.30 BST) … and that Brazil’s headline rate remained well above the central bank’s target (13.00 BST) …
10th May 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 1.2m in April (13.30 BST) China’s export volumes probably remained very high last month Germany’s industrial production likely to have risen by around 2% m/m in March (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
6th May 2021
Retail sales probably surged in Germany, but fell in France (10.00 BST) BoE likely to revise forecasts up, but push back against expectations of rate hikes (12.00 BST) We expect US jobless claims to confirm that the labour market is rebounding fast (13.30 …
5th May 2021
The final reading for Euro-zone PMIs for April likely to be revised down a touch (09.00 BST) ADP report may point to stronger US employment growth in April (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp (22.30 BST) Key Market …
4th May 2021
We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp, to 3.50% (Wed.) China’s Caixin services PMI will probably point to growth momentum waning (Thu.) US employment report likely to show continued acceleration in the pace of recovery (Fri.) Key …
30th April 2021
The Fed is likely to leave its current policy settings unchanged this evening… … but we think data tomorrow will show Q1 US GDP growth hit 7.0% annualised (13.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment was probably unchanged in April (10.00 BST) Key Market …
28th April 2021
Fed likely to strike an optimistic tone but maintain its dovish stance (19.00 BST) Biden due to unveil details of $1.5tn American Families Plan Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes We do not …
27th April 2021
Higher inflation in Brazil may set the stage for further rate hikes (13.00 BST) We think that US consumer confidence continued to recover in April (15.00 BST) Bank of Japan & Sweden’s Riksbank will probably both keep policy settings unchanged Key Market …
26th April 2021
The Fed is likely to stick its dovish policy stance despite a brightening economic outlook (Wed.) We think a surge in consumption will have driven US GDP growth to 7.0% in Q1… (Thu.) … while we expect the euro-zone and Czech economies contracted in Q1 …
23rd April 2021
UK government borrowing probably hit a peacetime record in March (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) Strong April PMIs look likely in the US & UK, but they may have declined in Europe Key Market Themes …
22nd April 2021
Higher energy prices probably pushed up inflation in the UK in March (07.00 BST) We think inflation in South Africa rose to 3.5% y/y, primarily due to base effects (09.00 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to reduce the pace of its asset purchases (15.00 …
20th April 2021
Euro-zone bank lending survey likely to reinforce ECB’s resolve to keep policy loose UK unemployment rate probably remained around 5.0% in February (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro calls, and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
19th April 2021
ECB may explain reasons behind the limited rise in PEPP purchases since its last meeting (Thu.) We expect PMI surveys to have rebounded in the UK, but fallen in the euro-zone in April (Fri.) Russia’s central bank likely to hike rates in response to high …
16th April 2021
We think China’s Q1 GDP growth slowed in q/q terms (03.00 BST) Euro-zone inflation probably remained low in March, but it could pick up soon (10.00 BST) April US consumer confidence may have been boosted by stimulus & reopening (15.00 BST) Key Market …
15th April 2021
We think that US retail sales surged by 8.5% m/m in March… (13.30 BST) …and US industrial production rebounded by 2.8% m/m. (14.15 BST) We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut the policy rate by 200bp. (12.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the stock …
14th April 2021
We think that transitory factors pushed inflation in Sweden above 2% in March (08.30 BST) Industrial production in the euro-zone probably fell due to supply shortages (10.00 BST) We expect March retail sales in the US surged following weaker sales last …
13th April 2021
