With Treasury yields rising in Q4 and property cap rates falling for the first time since mid-2022, our property valuation scores declined across the board. This supports our view that the recovery in 2025 will be weak. There remains a gap between …
20th February 2025
Property valuations worsened in Q4 as alternative asset yields rose and property yields essentially held steady. With the 10-year gilt yield now falling back, and property yields set to for a period of stability, we expect property valuations will …
13th February 2025
We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still, we think the CBN will be wary of the inflationary risks …
8th January 2025
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 24) …
7th November 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2024) …
20th August 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) …
16th May 2024
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 24) …
10th May 2024
All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1 2020. At the sector level, industrial still looks …
26th February 2024
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) …
21st February 2024
Our latest UK commercial property valuation monitor is embedded below: A small rise in property yields in Q3 was not enough to offset a surge in alternative asset yields, particularly the 10-year gilt, and as a result valuations worsened. Looking ahead, …
8th November 2023
Our latest UK commercial property valuation monitor is embedded below: A small rise in property yields in Q2 was not enough to offset a surge in alternative asset yields, particularly the 10-year gilt, and as a result valuations worsened. Looking ahead …
9th August 2023
A sharp increase in property yields in Q4 helped European property valuations improve for the first time in two years. That said, spreads over alternative assets remained very narrow by past standards and all markets besides Istanbul were still …
2nd March 2023
Despite a sharp rise in property yields, renewed increases in alternative asset yields led to a further deterioration in European property valuations in Q3. (See Chart 1.) All markets were overvalued except for Istanbul, where sharp falls in Turkish …
30th November 2022
We don’t think the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities will continue to hold up better than those in developed markets (DMs) if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. The valuations of emerging market equities – as measured by …
21st October 2022
Despite a rise in property yields, increases in alternative asset yields led to a further deterioration in European property valuations in Q2. (See Chart 1.) While industrial and office valuations still look the most stretched, retail has now joined …
2nd September 2022
Even though equity and bond valuations in frontier markets and a few smaller emerging markets (EMs) have fallen sharply, we think the risk of contagion is low and that most EMs will hold up relatively well. EM financial assets have come under serious …
21st July 2022
Even though the valuations of technology stocks have, in general, already fallen sharply in recent weeks, we suspect they may decline further over the next couple of years. This is one reason why we expect the sectors in which they are heavily represented …
25th January 2022
The US dollar remains somewhat above its “fair” value on most of the metrics we track. But its overvaluation is not extreme by historical standards, nor is that of many other currencies (see Chart 1), and we do not think that it will prevent the greenback …
20th August 2021
While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices. After getting close to its highest levels in over a …
5th August 2021
The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. Admittedly, the forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300, one of the benchmark …
19th January 2021
Despite signs of exuberance in a few markets, we don’t think that we are in the late stages of a bubble in “risky” assets generally. Provided vaccines enable the gradual relaxation of coronavirus restrictions around the world, we continue to forecast that …
14th January 2021
We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be weak, valuations are also unlikely to provide much …
13th January 2020
We don’t expect the valuations of US equities to continue to rise over the rest of 2019. In fact, we expect the price/earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 to fall, and this is a key reason why we forecast that the index will drop by about 15% from its …
3rd October 2019
