Overview – With virus restrictions set to be eased further, we expect the recovery in economic activity to gather pace from Q3, which should give occupier markets a lift. But the pick-up will not be enough to prevent falls in office and retail rents this …
25th June 2021
Overview – With the recovery in economic activity already underway and further easing in virus restrictions to come, the outlook for occupier demand is encouraging. However, with structural factors also at play, this is likely to provide more support to …
24th June 2021
Overview – The start to the year has been in line with our expectations, meaning that falls in absorption and rents have generally accelerated in the six major metros. Owing to their relatively low rents and smaller shares of tech workers, we expect …
18th June 2021
Overview – The easing of virus restrictions has brightened the economic outlook and prospects for occupier markets. And with rises in inflation expected to be temporary, we think monetary policy will remain highly accommodative over the next five years, …
Overview – The economic recovery continues in earnest, but this is raising questions about quite how transitory the current high rates of inflation are. We think that core inflation will stay elevated, which will force the Fed to push up rates in late …
10th June 2021
Our forecasts that the Bank of England won’t tighten monetary policy until much later than the markets expect and that when it does it will unwind some quantitative easing (QE) first (perhaps in 2024) before raising interest rates (perhaps in 2025) is …
24th May 2021
Overview – The easing of restrictions is good news for the economy, but some commercial property sectors will be slower to benefit than others. Encouragingly, the property downturn was not as bad as we anticipated and the data for Q1 suggest that we may …
21st May 2021
Overview – House price growth is on track to reach double figures in the summer before cooling as the stamp duty holiday ends. But with mortgage rates very low, the economy recovering rapidly and households still sitting on a large stock of savings built …
14th May 2021
We think the greenback will strengthen a bit over the next couple of years as the economy in the US outperforms during the recovery from COVID-19 and government bond yields there generally rise faster than those elsewhere. In this environment, we expect …
12th May 2021
Overview – The rebound in global economic activity this year will lead to a strong pick-up in demand for energy commodities. Arguably, this has already happened in the gas and coal markets as industrial activity has revived in both China and some …
4th May 2021
We continue to forecast that a strong recovery in the global economy and ongoing policy support will drive further increases in developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities over the next couple of years. But given our view that the yields of …
30th April 2021
Overview – Although we anticipate a strong global economic recovery in 2021, our forecast of a slowdown in China’s economy means that we still expect industrial metals prices to end the year lower. At the same time, a stronger US dollar and rising US …
28th April 2021
Overview – Slow vaccine rollouts, tight fiscal policy and weakness in tourism sectors will hold back recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa. Virus containment measures will probably remain in place for some time, depressing activity. Meanwhile, some …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see further falls against the …
Download the pdf for the full Outlook Overview – After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of years …
Overview – A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the rest of the region will lag behind, …
27th April 2021
Download the PDF for the full report. Overview – Following a spectacular rebound from pandemic-induced lows, we continue to expect that most commodity prices will be falling again by end-2021. Although growth in demand should be strong as the global …
Overview – Third virus waves and the slow vaccine rollout will weigh on near-term growth in the region, but we expect a strong recovery in activity to take place later this year and in 2022. Our forecasts for growth are generally above the consensus and …
26th April 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – A rise in virus cases and some setbacks to vaccination programmes have pushed back the recoveries in some countries somewhat, but we still expect strong global growth of over 6% this year. The US will continue to …
23rd April 2021
Overview – Severe COVID-19 outbreaks across Latin America will put a brake on the region’s economic recovery in Q2. While we’re more optimistic than most that the rollout of vaccines will boost output later this year and in 2022, we still think that Latin …
22nd April 2021
Overview – Asia’s emergence from the pandemic has been threatened recently by a resurgence in infections across parts of the region. Most of South Asia, the Philippines and Thailand have had to introduce new restrictions to contain outbreaks of the virus, …
21st April 2021
Overview – After a bumper second half of 2020, housing market activity will lose steam in 2021 as higher mortgage interest rates and record low inventory weigh on home sales. House price growth will also fall back, as recent strong gains in prices …
19th April 2021
We are forecasting a very strong – but also somewhat uneven – recovery in the global economy over the next couple of years as the pandemic is gradually contained, with three key implications for asset allocation. First, we generally expect government …
16th April 2021
As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its comparative success in containing the virus has allowed it to …
Overview – The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK in coming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker than the consensus expects this year. …
15th April 2021
Overview – While we think the reopening of the economy and the vaccine rollout will allow GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level a bit earlier than most forecasters, the big difference between us and the consensus is that we don’t think the pandemic will …
Overview – The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which should allow those sectors still severely …
Overview – The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if economic growth turns out to be markedly …
14th April 2021
Overview – The third wave of COVID-19 means that the restrictions on activity will be in place for longer than we assumed, but the economy is poised to recover strongly once vaccinations reach a critical mass, especially with the help of an additional …
8th April 2021
Overview – The economic recovery has progressed well over recent months and as things currently stand growth is on course to be stronger than the consensus expects this year. But the recent surge in virus cases is a significant downside risk to the …
Overview – Japan’s vaccine rollout has got off to a crawling start and a fourth wave of coronavirus infections is forming. Even so, we expect vaccines to allow domestic spending to rebound fully in the second half of this year. Our forecast that GDP will …
Overview – All major city apartment markets will benefit from the reopening of the economy and reduction in remote work, with rental demand also supported by record low numbers of homes for sale. New York City and D.C., which both saw large falls in …
1st April 2021
Overview – There are forecast downgrades across the board this quarter, owing to the changes to our occupier demand expectations at the sector level. The markets broadly split into three pairs. New York City and San Francisco could see capital values fall …
31st March 2021
Overview – Following a year marked with sharp falls in retail rents and rising retail and office yields, the next few months for property values will continue to be dismal. We have pencilled in another drop in all-property capital values this year. With …
26th March 2021
Overview – The vaccine rollout and stimulus bill are unquestionably positive for the economy but may be a mixed blessing for real estate. Those two factors are probably most positive for the apartment sector, given that they have put more cash in the …
25th March 2021
Overview – The Swiss and Scandinavian economies and their property markets are likely to weather the pandemic better than many others in Western Europe. We expect all-property values in the region to hold steady or see small falls this year. However, even …
Overview – Euro-zone prime property will likely get off more mildly than many expected at the start of the pandemic. We forecast another small fall in all-property capital values this year, with yields holding steady and rental values extending their …
18th March 2021
Overview – Effective vaccines provide a path out of the COVID-19 economic slump, but commercial property will be slow to benefit. On the bright side, the real estate downturn has been milder than expected and we appear to be past the worst. But we think …
19th February 2021
We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s and approaching its level at the outset of the 2000s – …
16th February 2021
UK assets are well placed to shake off their underperformance since the 2016 Brexit vote by outperforming global assets over the next couple of years. All risky assets will continue to be buoyed by the combination of a rapid global economic recovery from …
15th February 2021
We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note, for example, that technology use has accelerated in …
12th February 2021
We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise since the start of November, we don’t think that equity …
29th January 2021
Overview – Industrial metals prices had a stellar 2020, with prices ending the year higher than where they started. But just as China’s strong economic recovery lifted metals prices in 2020, so will China’s slowdown in growth weigh on them in H2 2021, as …
28th January 2021
Overview – The second waves of COVID-19 currently ripping through Sub-Saharan Africa will keep economic activity depressed over the coming months and, even once vaccines belatedly reach the region, recoveries will remain sluggish. The three largest …
Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro-zone. As elsewhere in Europe, the pace of vaccine …
27th January 2021
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – China’s recovery is already in full swing, and economies elsewhere in Asia and in Emerging Europe will recover lost ground relatively quickly over the next year. But slow vaccine roll-out and austerity in some cases mean …
Overview – Rising unemployment and the withdrawal of the raft of policies that supported the housing market in 2020 means that the pandemic will finally take its toll this year. The end of the stamp duty holiday will cause transactions to slump at the …
Overview – While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after a sharp 6.9% drop in 2020, we expect a …
26th January 2021
Overview – The revival in oil demand and prices should continue to gather pace in 2021 as the lifting of quarantine measures enables the release of ‘pent-up’ demand associated with leisure activity. Meanwhile, a recovery in industrial activity should …
25th January 2021
Overview – In a reversal of the trend in 2020, we expect oil prices to rise this year and the prices of industrial metals and agriculturals to fall. We suspect that oil demand, particularly in developed economies, could surge in the second half of the …
22nd January 2021
