Click here to read the full report. Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across …
19th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Property values in Scandinavia and Switzerland have taken a hit as yields jumped in recent quarters. With valuations still stretched, we are forecasting a further 50bps and 30bps of rises at the …
16th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Tight financial conditions and China’s biggest COVID outbreak yet mean global economic growth will slow further in the first quarter of next year, dragging most commodity prices lower. The slowdown will be …
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given downgrades to …
14th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With inflationary …
13th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF deals …
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are below …
12th December 2022
Overview – Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to push the economy into recession, we’re now …
Overview – Higher interest rates have already resulted in a sharp property repricing in 2022. And with valuations still highly stretched and rental prospects weaker given the imminent recession, we think values will fall further next year. However, as …
9th December 2022
Overview – The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear fruit. And in the meantime, the economy will …
Overview – The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices and an easing of supply shortages, should …
8th December 2022
Overview – The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in early 2024, several months sooner than the …
Overview – The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy last year and with interest rates well above …
7th December 2022
Overview – 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early 2023) are felt. Our view that inflation and …
Overview – We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment rate, we expect both headline and core …
5th December 2022
Overview – The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the outlier by keeping monetary policy loose. Key …
Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation will force the Bank to cut rates quicker than investors …
30th November 2022
Overview – The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with gilts yields set to fall back next year we …
28th November 2022
Overview – We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into a mild recession in 2023, sales and …
8th November 2022
While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and “safe-haven” demand increases further. Even if the FOMC …
2nd November 2022
After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of next year. We suspect that long-dated government bond …
1st November 2022
Overview – Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and product exports, coupled with the output quota cut …
31st October 2022
Overview – The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already evident in the survey data into a collapse, as …
We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields have probably been the biggest headwind for “risky” …
28th October 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth has slowed sharply this year and is likely to remain sluggish in 2023 and 2024 as weak external demand and tight financial conditions take their toll. Having started hiking rates much earlier than their DM …
27th October 2022
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight fiscal and monetary policy, we hold a …
Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes; monetary policy is being tightened further and …
25th October 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom has spread …
Overview – Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to begin to shift their focus from containing …
24th October 2022
Download the full report here . Overview – The Gulf states will continue to lead the pack, but growth is set to slow next year by more than we had previously expected due to oil output cuts. In North Africa, balance of payments strains should ease, and …
21st October 2022
Overview - We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle. Growth will remain depressed. Consumer …
Overview – The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from its peak to its trough. What’s more, …
20th October 2022
Overview – The euro-zone is on the cusp of a significant recession due to a severe squeeze on households’ real incomes, rising interest rates and weak external demand. We now think GDP will fall for the next three quarters and will recover only …
Overview – Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth forecasts across most of the region for 2022-23 …
19th October 2022
Overview – Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost all economies in the region to experience a …
13th October 2022
Overview – The RBI has frontloaded policy tightening over recent months but with inflation peaking and economic headwinds building, we think the central bank will now slow the pace of tightening and revert to 25bp hikes. Our forecast is for the repo rate …
Overview – Soaring interest rates and falling real incomes will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. In fact, we now expect New Zealand to enter a recession next year as the RBNZ will hike …
12th October 2022
Overview – The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of 1.0%. For now, our expectation that …
6th October 2022
Overview – We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive up the unemployment rate. As a result, we …
5th October 2022
Overview – In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade, while external demand will slow. As a …
Overview – The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as firms compete up rents on new, high …
23rd September 2022
Overview – A further deterioration in the economic backdrop is set to weigh on property rental growth, especially in the consumer-facing retail sector where we have revised down our rental forecasts in the near term. This comes at a time when higher …
Overview – The latest data suggest that a property repricing is already underway in response to higher interest rates and stretched valuations. We expect a cumulative rise in all-property yields of 35bps-40bps across the Scandinavian and Swiss markets …
22nd September 2022
We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform better than others. Rent prospects are strongest in the …
16th September 2022
Overview – The economic backdrop has deteriorated, with the euro-zone set to enter recession this year, while inflation has continued to beat expectations. This will weigh on property demand across all sectors, especially retail, for which we have …
Overview – Higher interest rates mean that real estate looks significantly overpriced in all sectors. The latest activity and performance data suggest that a correction is underway, but as we now think the 10-Year Treasury yield has peaked, we expect the …
9th September 2022
Our forecast that the energy crisis will push the euro-zone and UK economies into recession while the US gets away with a milder slowdown suggests that the euro and the pound will weaken further against the US dollar. We think the pound will fall from …
31st August 2022
Overview – Surging inflation and the upcoming recession will cut real household disposable incomes, which are set to see their largest fall on record. That drop in spending power will hit demand for all property sectors, but consumer-facing sectors …
23rd August 2022
Overview – Despite a reduction in our mortgage rate forecast, affordability is still set to be as stretched as it was during the mid-2000s housing boom. Alongside record-low homebuyer sentiment and a slowing economy, that means we have become more …
12th August 2022
Overview – Tight supply has supported house prices so far, but they now appear to be stalling. Demand will only deteriorate further over the coming quarters as rising mortgage rates, high inflation, and the recession weigh on buyers’ budgets and …
