Overview – We expect another few quarters of near-zero GDP growth to lead to an annual gain of just 0.7% next year. Even with higher oil prices, the weakness of economic growth leaves scope for CPI inflation to fall back to the 2% target in 2024. That …
26th September 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to struggle over the rest of this year as developed economies flirt with recession, the US dollar remains strong and investor risk appetite moderates. That said, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Brent oil price …
Overview – After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to keep fiscal policy supportive. Outside of the …
25th September 2023
Overview – With the economy showing signs of slowing and transaction volumes likely to stay low in H2 2023, a tough 6-12 months lies in store for commercial real estate. We still expect cap rates to rise on the back of higher Treasury yields, but the full …
Overview – GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. Next year should be a little better, but …
Overview – Both economies have dodged a recession so far, but we still consider it more likely than not that output will shrink across the second half of the year. With inflation softening and labour markets loosening, both central banks are done hiking …
22nd September 2023
Overview – Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover. Central banks across the region will continue to …
21st September 2023
Overview – A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But our non-consensus forecast that higher …
18th September 2023
Overview – India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. The onset of a …
13th September 2023
Overview – We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to …
4th September 2023
Overview – After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also think any compression beyond this year will be …
21st August 2023
Overview – With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have …
11th August 2023
Overview – Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% for the next 12 months. That will price many buyers out of the market, and …
4th August 2023
Our forecast that in late 2024 and 2025 the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than investors expect suggests that UK gilt yields will fall and close the current gap with US yields. Admittedly, there’s still a risk that inflation in the UK …
25th July 2023
The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist for the next few years thanks to the relatively high …
11th July 2023
Overview – We still think a mild recession over the coming quarters is more likely than not. As the economy weakens and the downward trend in core inflation gathers pace, we think interest rates will eventually be cut more quickly than markets are pricing …
Overview – Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our projections for demand implying vacancy rises …
7th July 2023
Overview – The slowdown in rent growth at the start of this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop. And although the property price correction has slowed, we think stretched valuations will push yields higher and drive further …
3rd July 2023
Overview – The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector faces its own credit crunch, with very few …
29th June 2023
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in Latin America and …
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect prices to tick up later in the year owing to …
Click here to read the full publication. While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone already in …
28th June 2023
Overview – China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should still make some headway. Consumer Spending – …
Overview – Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will contract later this year. Even if recession is …
27th June 2023
Click here to read the full publication. Q2 looks set to go down as a decisive victory for “risky” assets over “safe” ones, thanks in large part to euphoria in the stock market over Artificial Intelligence (AI). But we suspect that the story over the …
Global Overview – Most advanced economies have so far dodged the recessions that we, and many others, had expected to start in the first half of this year. The relative resilience of activity can be pinned on several supply- and demand-side props to …
We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that’s partly due to safe-haven demand, and partly because …
26th June 2023
Overview – GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. We anticipate …
22nd June 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Downturns in activity are bottoming out in Emerging Europe, current account deficits are narrowing and disinflation has taken hold across the region. But the road ahead still looks challenging. We expect GDP …
21st June 2023
Overview – Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest rates in the past two decades. The latest …
Overview – We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by governments withdrawing policy support. …
Note: We’re talking inflation and the BOJ, slowing Indian growth, and regional monetary easing in our Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 22 nd June. Register now . Overview – With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a …
20th June 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK’s economic, housing market and policy outlook in light of the BoE’s June rate decision in an online briefing on 22nd June at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST . Register now . Overview – As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation …
19th June 2023
Click here to read full text. Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment. Our GDP growth …
13th June 2023
Overview – The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the longer term, India’s growth prospects are …
12th June 2023
Overview – The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn’t peaked yet, we suspect the Bank of Japan …
Overview – The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but core price pressures are likely to remain …
8th June 2023
Overview – Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and March, we expect to see further modest …
1st June 2023
Overview – Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for commercial property and yields will need …
30th May 2023
The recent resilience in economic activity and stubbornness of inflation is raising market rate expectations, gilt yields, UK equities and the pound. And there is a growing risk that interest rates rise above 4.50% and/or stay high for longer. But we …
26th April 2023
Overview – While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook , we are sticking to our forecast that house prices will fall by 12% in total. Persistent core …
Overview – We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western markets. We have also pushed through bigger …
14th April 2023
The outlook for economic activity remains poor due to the impact of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand. Sweden is already in a recession, not least thanks to the slump in its property sector. And while Norway and Switzerland …
We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an outright fall in several of the major markets as well …
12th April 2023
Overview – We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping crystallise some of the risks to commercial real …
6th April 2023
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally disappoint consensus …
4th April 2023
Overview – Property values fell sharply in Scandinavia and Switzerland last year, but with valuations still stretched and financing set to remain challenging, we think yields will climb higher. And with economic activity weakening and supply increasing, …
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices. However, later in the year, prices should …
31st March 2023
Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which has given way to concerns about a banking crisis in …
Overview – Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the consensus. Public debt problems will remain …
