Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the country was recovering from the Great East Japan …
17th September 2019
The ebbs and flows in investor risk appetite in recent months have resulted in a rollercoaster ride for the Swiss government bond market. The run-up in the price of Swiss 50-year government bonds between early-July and mid-August – which reflected a fall …
13th September 2019
Consumer spending continues to be a relative bright spot in the global economy. Spending growth picked up to a healthy 2.9% quarterly annualised in the advanced economies in Q2 (see Chart 1), reflecting marked improvements in the US and Japan. But the …
12th September 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level since late 2016, but that has not given much of a boost to home demand. Indeed, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over July and August. (See Chart 1.) A lack of …
11th September 2019
Oil & Gasoline – Oil prices continued to fall last month on concerns about a slowing global economy and rising US-China protectionism. Our forecast of a further downturn in global growth suggests prices could fall by more. That said, supply is …
6th September 2019
We expect worries about the escalating US-China trade war and prospects for the global economy to continue to drive metals prices in the coming months. Precious metals are benefitting from the uncertainty, but there have been renewed falls in industrial …
The last few weeks have been kinder to EM financial markets than the start of August, when equities and currencies slumped as the US-China trade war ramped up again. Even so, neither has performed particularly well, and we think that the stage is set for …
5th September 2019
While the 0.2% q/q decline in GDP in Q2 and the further falls in the IHS Markit/CIPS activity PMIs in August mean that there is a real risk of a recession, there are reasons to believe that GDP will rise in Q3 and a recession before Brexit will be …
In the face of the downturn in manufacturing, the services sector is still holding up well. Indeed, the business activity index of the services PMI survey suggests that output in the sector is growing by about 1.5% y/y. (See Chart 1.) The strength of the …
July saw the second consecutive monthly rise in new buyer enquiries and house purchase mortgage approvals, as Brexit uncertainty briefly eased. (See Chart 1.) But with house prices very high and economic uncertainty set to intensify once more, we expect …
Overview – The escalation in US-China trade tensions led to investors becoming more risk averse, which boosted the prices of gold and silver but depressed the prices of agricultural and industrial commodities. Looking ahead, we expect trade tensions to …
4th September 2019
At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a number of fronts. Trade tensions have continued to ramp up …
2nd September 2019
The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy is likely to fall back into recession, although the …
30th August 2019
Governments across the region made a series of economic policy moves this month, with Ethiopian and South African politicians taking steps forward, and Nigerian ones – again – retreating towards protectionism. In Ethiopia, the government issued a license …
29th August 2019
Central Europe is one of the few parts of the world where central banks haven’t eased monetary policy recently. Indeed, we think that the focus is likely to remain on tightening, particularly in Poland and Hungary. Inflation is likely to remain above …
28th August 2019
Following the escalation of the US-China trade war and further signs of weakness in much of the global economic data, investors have increased their bets on looser monetary policy in Canada. Market pricing implies that the chance of an October rate cut …
27th August 2019
Although there have been signs that economic activity has improved in Q3, the slowdown in the commercial property market looks set to continue. In July, all-property rental values barely grew and yields rose across most sub-sectors. (See Chart 1.) …
Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year and into 2020. (See here .) One of the key risks facing …
26th August 2019
Hong Kong’s GDP is now just 3% of mainland China’s, down from 18% in 1997 when the city returned to Chinese control. But Hong Kong still serves as the main gateway between China and the world where financial flows are concerned. (See Chart 1.) This …
22nd August 2019
Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Thailand, and the …
21st August 2019
The rupee has fallen by around 4% so far this month, underperforming all other major currencies in Asia. Growing risk aversion amongst investors in recent weeks has resulted in broad losses in EM currencies, but the rupee has been further impacted by …
Output per worker increased for the first time since 2017 last quarter. (See Chart 1.) GDP growth was stronger than expected at 1.1% y/y despite a sharp moderation in employment growth. Employment growth averaged only 0.7% y/y, down from over 2% late last …
The further inversion of the yield curve – with the 10-2 year spread briefly inverting last week – has heightened fears that a recession is coming soon, but the real economy shows few signs of any imminent capitulation. Aside from industrial production, …
19th August 2019
Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering rental value increases in the retail and industrial …
There has been a gradual slowing in rental growth in the last couple of quarters, with a particularly large drop-off in retail rental growth. This has been echoed in the investment market, with all-property yields falling at marginal rates and retail …
The latest data suggest that GDP growth in the Gulf economies slowed in Q2, which is partly a result of cuts in oil production but also softer activity in non-oil sectors. The early data for July, such as the whole economy PMIs, point to even weaker …
15th August 2019
The pick-up in FX interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in recent weeks is likely to be the first step towards a rate cut. But predicting when the interventions will be dialled down and the policy rate will be cut is more art than science. It’s …
Sentiment regarding the near-term prospects for the global economy has soured over the past week or two, triggered in part by the escalation of the US-China trade war. Indeed, there are increasing signs – such as the slowdown in investment growth in many …
8th August 2019
The recent sell-off in global equity markets has hit the euro-zone harder than the US, but we doubt that this will continue. Equities in Germany have performed particularly poorly, which is unsurprising given that the economy is struggling – with GDP …
7th August 2019
Housing demand improved in June for the first time in over two years. But with the rise driven heavily by regions with the most expensive prices, and another Brexit deadline looming, that doesn’t signal an imminent housing market rebound. Indeed, we think …
Summary: The fall in mortgage interest rates gave mortgage applications for home purchase a boost earlier this year, but a lack of inventory meant that did not translate into home sales. (See Chart 1.) Total single-family sales declined by 0.5% m/m in …
6th August 2019
Despite sharp declines in recent days, we expect the prices of most industrial metals to fall further this year as demand falters in the wake of slower global economic growth. We are particularly negative on the outlook for Chinese steel and iron ore …
While it will probably be confirmed later this week that the economy didn’t grow at all in Q2, July’s PMIs provide some support to our view that GDP will rise in Q3. Admittedly, both the manufacturing and construction PMIs remained close to their …
Oil & Gasoline – The price of oil declined over the past month as US-China trade tensions escalated, adding to fears that the global economy will continue to slow. Looking ahead, we think that demand growth will be subdued as the Chinese economy remains …
2nd August 2019
Overview – With the exception of the precious metals, most commodity prices drifted lower in July on concerns about soft demand. Given our forecast of slower global economic growth in the second half of this year, we expect the prices of most energy and …
31st July 2019
News that South Africa’s government agreed to provide another 60bn rand (US$4.2bn) bailout to Eskom between now and 2021 caused the rand to weaken by 2.3% against the US dollar due to fears that this will result in the sovereign losing its last …
The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the stimulus that has been injected into each economy. Lower …
30th July 2019
The case for interest rate cuts across Latin America has strengthened in the past month, partly because of the dovish shift by the Fed, but also because of soft domestic inflation and growth. Policymakers at central banks in Chile and Mexico struck a …
25th July 2019
Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year and we think that further weakness lies in store. Figures released in the past month showed that economic growth slumped from 3.6% y/y in Q4 2018 to 1.7% y/y in Q1 2019. OPEC’s decision to extend its …
24th July 2019
The Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey (BOS) suggests that firms have grown more confident in the outlook, with the future sales balance jumping to a two-year high. It seems to imply that annual GDP growth will accelerate from 1.3% in the …
The jump in the headline rate of inflation in Malaysia last month to 1.5% y/y from 0.2% in May, is unlikely to trouble the central bank (BNM). The rise was due to the effects of the elimination of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in June 2018 dropping out …
With the pound having recently weakened to a two-year low of $1.24 and the markets seemingly no longer pricing in the possibility of official interest rate hikes if there’s a Brexit deal or delay, there may be more upside to the pound than is widely …
Our view that the commercial property downturn has further to run was backed up by a pickup in the pace of decline in all-property capital values in June. However, at the halfway point in the year, industrial returns continue to outperform returns on …
Russia ’s economy remained very soft in Q2, although it does at least seem to have dodged a technical recession – albeit by the skin of its teeth. Much of the weakness seems to be concentrated in the services sector, where slow household income growth and …
23rd July 2019
Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in this month’s union budget for FY19/20 which would …
Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in Emerging Europe where Turkey’s recession probably eased in …
19th July 2019
Emerging market (EM) equities have continued to recover from their sharp falls in May, but we do not think that they are out of the woods this year. Expectations for EM corporate earnings seem to be based on assumptions about the outlook for the global …
17th July 2019
The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, despite some better news on the real economy. Payroll employment growth was much stronger than expected in June, the resurgence in underlying retail sales suggests that …
The Bank of Japan’s annual purchases of JGBs have dropped to less than half of the official target of “about 80 trillion yen.” (See Chart 1.) Since the launch of yield curve control in September 2016 the Bank has slowed its JGB purchases as higher …
Nominal GDP growth and credit growth almost converged at the end of 2018, but the gap between them has widened again this year as growth has slowed and policymakers have shifted their focus away from deleveraging and towards supporting growth. (See Chart …
