This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy still in recession July’s euro-zone PMIs are consistent with our non-consensus view that the currency union’s economy will remain in recession. But they also suggest …
24th July 2023
Note: Join our Asia Drop-In on whether China is in a balance sheet recession, the July BOJ meeting and more at 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT on Thursday, 27 th July . Register here . This article has been updated with additional analysis and charts since it was …
Demand not looking so excessive after all Retail sales volumes were little changed in May and the preliminary estimate implies that they dropped back in June. That calls into question the Bank of Canada’s recent claim about “persistent excess demand” and …
21st July 2023
Inflation worries trigger bumper hike The much larger-than-expected 100bp interest rate hike (to 8.50%) by the Russian central bank underscores policymakers’ concerns about inflation risks. And while we don’t think monetary tightening will continue quite …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Resilience in June, but Q2 was still weak June’s retail sales and industrial production data out of Poland suggest that the economy held up relatively well last month, but we …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Unexpected borrowing undershoot as receipts rise sharply Note: Join our special online briefing after the Fed and ECB’s July decisions, and previewing the BoE’s August meeting, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Note: Join our special online briefing after the Fed and ECB’s July decisions, and previewing the BoE’s August meeting, at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST on Thursday 27 th July . Register …
This article has been updated with additional charts and analysis since it was first published Inflation should fall back towards target through year-end Electricity tariff hikes that went into effect last month led to a rise in headline inflation. …
Sales fall back toward January lows Existing home sales edged lower, dropping by 3.3% m/m to 4,160,000 annualised in June. That decline takes sales back towards the low of 4.0m recorded in January. And despite a marginal pickup in mortgage applications …
20th July 2023
This webpage has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. The further fall in inflation in June, coupled with signs of economic weakness and a decline in risk premia, prompted the South African Reserve Bank to leave its …
CBRT underwhelms again, risks to the lira build The 250bp interest rate hike, to 17.50%, by Turkey’s central bank today once again underwhelmed expectations and the slow and steady tightening is pushing the limits on what policymakers can get away with . …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Labour market continues full steam ahead With the labour market still running red hot, we think the Reserve Bank of Australia has more work to do. Accordingly, we’re sticking …
This article has been updated with additional charts and analysis since it was first published Exports picking up but downturn still on the cards The trade deficit narrowed in June as export values rose faster than import values, largely reflecting the …
Single-family starts fell from previous month’s highs, but remain strong Single-family starts fell back from their 11-month high in June, but remained substantially above the average seen in 2023 thus far as homebuilders remained optimistic. However with …
19th July 2023
Weakness in May looks set to continue The worse-than-expected South African retail sales figures for May add to the raft of weak activity data and it looks like things may get even worse over the coming months. Coupled with figures earlier today showing …
Drop in inflation means SARB to stand pat tomorrow The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 5.4% y/y in June brings it back within the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range for the first time since April 2022 and means that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Note: We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlook in 20-minute online briefing at 9am BST today. Register here . Some good news, but we’re still raising our …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Headline inflation moderates, but underlying inflation remains elevated Although price pressures are dissipating, they could prove stickier on the way down than we anticipate. As …
Manufacturing malaise set to continue The further slump in industrial production in June illustrates that some parts of the economy are already struggling and, as global manufacturing demand continues to soften, we expect further weakness in the second …
18th July 2023
Not as good as it looks This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. On the face of it, the sharper-than-expected fall in headline inflation to 2.8% in June and the only modest 0.1% m/m seasonally adjusted rise in the CPI …
Underlying sales better than muted headline gain suggests Despite the modest 0.2% m/m rise in headline retail sales in June, the bigger 0.6% m/m gain in underlying control group sales is a bit more encouraging, although second-quarter consumption growth …
RBA softens tone, but further rate hikes remain likely The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that its decision to hit pause was far from a foregone conclusion. Indeed, the Board did consider the option of a 25bp hike alongside the option of leaving …
Sharp drop in residential turned total lending negative in June Net lending to commercial real estate (CRE) in June was negative for the first time in over two years, but this was driven by a large drop in residential lending as elevated mortgage rates …
17th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis and charts since first publication. Recovery shifts down a gear GDP slowed more than expected in Q2 due to a fizzling out of the reopening boost. Continued weakness in the property sector, possible …
Jump in confidence unlikely to last long The sharp rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 72.6 in early July, from 64.4, leaves it close to a two-year high. That said, it remains fairly weak by historic standards, and the chances …
14th July 2023
Easing supply shortages still supporting activity The 2.2% m/m jump in manufacturing sales volumes in May was better than we expected given the weakness of the survey evidence and shows that easing supply shortages are still supporting the sector. While …
Inflation falling, but still too high for the Riksbank The fall in CPIF inflation, the Riksbank’s target variable, in June was smaller than policymakers expected, which will encourage them to raise the policy rate from 3.75% to 4.00% at the next meeting …
Weak outturn, bleak outlook The economy avoided a technical recession in Q2 but we continue to expect growth to come in well below consensus this year as elevated interest rates and weaker external demand weigh heavily on economic output. According to the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Uptick in May but weakness ahead Euro-zone industrial production edged up in May but it probably still declined over Q2 as a whole and we think further weakness is ahead. The …
13th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Note: We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlooks after the June CPI release on Wednesday 19 th July. Register here to join that 20-minute online briefing. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Exports to shrink further before bottoming out Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in June by the most since March 2020, with export volumes falling to a 6-month low. And …
BoK on hold again but conditions now in place for a cut The decision today by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a fourth consecutive meeting came as no surprise. The central bank is due to hold a press conference and …
Rate hike on the cards, odds (just) in favour of a 25bp move The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. …
12th July 2023
Hike to 5.0% likely to be the last The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation declining and the survey indicators implying that inflation …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation has much further to fall The muted 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in June won’t stop the Fed from hiking rates again later this month, but it supports our …
Industry now fully recovered from March drop The stronger-than-expected 1.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in May means that the sector has now reversed all of the decline in output recorded in March. And more timely indicators point to a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. June’s CPI data already old news Headline consumer price inflation came in at 4.8% y/y in June, comfortably within the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. But that’s already old news …
RBNZ leaves rates unchanged The RBNZ’s decision to leave its official cash rate on hold at 5.50% was widely expected. In fact, all 25 analysts polled by Reuters, including ourselves, had anticipated the pause. The minutes of the July meeting reinforce our …
This article has been updated with additional analysis and charts since it was first published. Business investment probably still grew in Q2 The fall in “core” machinery orders in May points to a significant fall in spending on machinery and transport …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation plunge seals the deal on an August rate cut The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick …
11th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Stronger than expected but still relatively weak Although stronger than most had expected, bank loan growth still fell to its lowest in five months in June, while broad credit …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Note: We’ll be discussing the UK inflation, growth and policy outlooks after the June CPI release on Wednesday 19th July. Register here to join that 20-minute online briefing. …
Further pressure on the CBE as inflation accelerates to an all-time high This webpage has been updated with additional analysis, as well as a Chart and Table of key data. Egypt’s inflation rate rose from 32.7% y/y in May to a record high of 35.7% y/y in …
10th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation again stronger than expected In June, Norway’s inflation data were much stronger than expected for the second month running. While the Norges Bank has signalled a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Price pressures set to remain subdued this year Producer price deflation deepened further last month to its lowest in more than seven years, and consumer price inflation dropped …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Easing wage growth despite jump in employment The surge in employment in June was not quite as strong as it looks, with hours worked essentially unchanged last month, but still …
7th July 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Easing employment growth offset by stubborn wage growth The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June was the weakest gain since December 2020 and suggests labour market …
Fall in Chilean inflation paves the way for start of easing cycle later this month The larger-than-expected decline in inflation in Chile to an 18-month low of 7.6% in June seals the deal on an interest cut at the central bank’s next meeting later this …
A fragile plateau The decline in the Halifax house price index in June was surprisingly modest given the scale of the increase in mortgage rates in the same month. But the current level of house prices looks unsustainably high given where mortgage rates …
Renewed fall in May and outlook is bleak German industrial production fell in May and is likely to have declined in Q2. We think industry will continue to struggle over the rest of this year. The 0.2% m/m fall in industrial production in May was worse …
