Office-based jobs contracted for the first time in over three years Total employment grew by 0.3% 3m/3m once seasonally-adjusted in October across our 30 metros, which is weak both by this year’s standards and of the previous decade. Meanwhile, …
30th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. India to remain an EM outperformer The RBI had stated that the GDP data for Q3 (Q2 of FY23/24) would “surprise everyone on the upside” and, even despite that spoiler, the data …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone HICP (September) Faster disinflation brings earlier rate cuts into view The larger-than-expected fall in inflation in November means it is becoming increasingly …
Disinflation process entering a slower phase The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the central bank …
GDP growth slowing, more to come The sharp slowdown in Turkish GDP growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3, together with more timely figures for Q4, suggest that the economy is rebalancing in response to the policy tightening this year. With the central bank set to …
On hold again, rate cuts in Q2 next year The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a seventh consecutive meeting. The decision came as no surprise and was correctly predicted by all 36 economists polled by Reuters, …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Slowdown in private capex has further to run Private investment growth softened in Q3 and firms’ forecasts for 2023/24 suggest that this slowdown has further to run. The 0.6% …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weakness in consumption raises risk of recession While industrial production kept rising in October, firms’ output forecasts for the coming months are weak and the slump in …
Economy showing further signs of overheating Russia’s economy looks to have started Q4 on fairly solid footing and we think GDP growth of 3.0-3.3% this year is now highly likely. Support from loose fiscal policy and a strong labour market should keep GDP …
29th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. CEE recovery continuing in Q4 The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Euro-zone sentiment remains weak Despite the rise in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in November, it remained consistent with the economy at best stagnating in Q4. (See …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher interest rates will continue to percolate through the economy October’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to percolate through the …
Strong October lending, but anaemic investment volumes While net lending to commercial property increased for the eighth consecutive month in October, this hasn’t translated into higher investment volumes – which fell back again in October. But further …
Trough in mortgage approvals behind us With mortgage rates easing, the rise in mortgage approvals in October confirms that the trough in mortgage approvals is behind us. But with mortgage rates unlikely to fall much below 5% until the second half of 2024, …
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged (at 2.50%) and hinted that rates are likely to be left on hold for the foreseeable future. With inflation below target and the recovery likely to disappoint, we expect interest rates to remain …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. RBNZ will cut rates in the second half of next year While the RBNZ signaled that it could hike rates further, we still think that the tightening cycle is now over and that the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Trimmed mean inflation set to fall in earnest before long With trimmed mean inflation only moderating slowly, the RBA may well decide to hike interest rates further next year, …
House prices continue to defy gravity Another large monthly gain in house prices in September suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outstrip the drag on demand from high mortgage rates. This was a stronger …
28th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Fall in headline inflation keeps another 50bp cut on the cards The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in …
Black Friday may result in further rise in sales volumes in Q4 While retail sales values fell in October, a renewed boost from Black Friday in November may yet result in a second consecutive rise in sales volumes across Q4. The 0.2% m/m fall in sales …
Temporary pause in strength of new home sales New home sales reversed most of their rise in the previous month as mortgage rates spiked to 8%. However, we don’t think this marks an end to the strength in new homes sales. That’s because the supply of …
27th November 2023
Central bank in “wait and see” mode Israel’s central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.75% again today and the communications continued to emphasise risks to the inflation outlook. But policymakers provided the first hint that an easing cycle could be …
Retail sales perk up after weak Q3 The renewed rise in retail sales volumes in September was not enough to prevent a large contraction in sales volumes over the third quarter. The balance of risks is probably now skewed to the downside surrounding our …
24th November 2023
Growth pick up is likely to be short-lived Nigeria’s economic growth was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in Q3 as a smaller drag from the oil sector offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters, as the naira’s …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German economy still very weak The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in November mirrors the increase in the Composite PMI released yesterday but leaves the index deep …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication Decreases all across the board suggests another weak quarter The further slowdown in the composite PMI in November suggests that GDP growth remained sluggish this quarter. The …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Inflation will only reach 2% by the end of next year The jump in headline inflation in October isn’t as bad as it looks as underlying inflation kept falling. Nonetheless, it …
23rd November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . High services inflation will stop Banxico from cutting for now Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is …
CBRT delivers another large hike, end of tightening in sight Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered another 500bp interest rate hike, to 40.0%, at today’s meeting and suggested that it is very close to the end of the tightening cycle. A final 250bp hike …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Something for everyone, but bigger point is labour supply is too low The net migration figures for the year to June 2023 give some ammunition to both sides of the political …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky price pressures will add to the Bank of England’s unease The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 48.7 in October to 50.1 in November, is still consistent with a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs consistent with continued recession Despite the rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in November, it remained consistent with the economy contracting 0.2% in Q4. (See Chart …
Riksbank peaks at 4% The Riksbank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 4.0% today was not a major surprise given that financial markets were pricing in only a 10% chance of a hike while economists were evenly split between a hike and a hold. (We …
BI on hold, end of the tightening cycle Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged and the comments from the press conference suggest this marks the end of the tightening cycle. With growth likely to struggle and inflation set to remain weak, …
For more detailed analysis of the Autumn Statement, see our UK Economics Focus here . Chancellor chips away at fiscal tightening ahead of an election The net new giveaway the Chancellor announced today of £14.3bn in 2024/25 (0.5% of GDP) is a bit bigger …
22nd November 2023
Equipment investment continues to struggle Aside from the plunge in the volatile transport component, the October durable goods orders data suggest that business equipment investment continues to struggle in the fourth quarter. The 5.4% m/m plunge in …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Consumption bouncing back The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by …
Inflation rises, but SARB will take comfort from weaker core pressures The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.9% y/y in October, is likely to reinforce central bank policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric when they meet …
Fed offers something for everyone There is something for everyone in the minutes of the Fed’s early November policy meeting. The FOMC still just about maintained a tightening bias, but the overwhelming impression is that officials thought rates had …
21st November 2023
Spike in rates takes sales to fresh 13-year low Existing home sales fell sharply to a fresh 13-year low in October as the 8% peak in mortgage rates in the same month caused buyers and sellers to withdraw from the market. Mortgage applications for home …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Core inflation pressures muted There was good news all round in the October CPI report, with the overall CPI falling in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms for the first …
Sticking to aggressive easing ... for now The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut its base rate by another 75bp (to 11.50%) as expected today, and we think it will continue to lower rates in similar steps until the end of Q1. That said, with the disinflation …
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK macro and market consequences of the Chancellor’s Autumn statement at 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT on 22nd November. Register here for this 20-minute online briefing. This page has been updated with additional analysis since first …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Economic recovery now underway The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP …
20th November 2023
Starts continue to bounce back With homebuilders encouraged by the recent surge in buyers entering the new homes market due to a lack of existing inventory, housing starts and permits edged slightly higher in October. Total housing starts rose 1.9% m/m …
17th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Retail woes continued at the start of Q4, and further weakness to come The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in October means that after contracting by 1.0% q/q (which was …
Output temporarily depressed by UAW strike The 0.7% m/m decline in manufacturing output in October was entirely due to the now-resolved UAW strike, which translated into a temporary 10.0% m/m fall in motor vehicle output. With the UAW securing lucrative …
16th November 2023
Israel holds up well in Q3, but sharp drop coming in Q4 The slight slowdown in Israeli GDP growth to 2.8% q/q annualised in Q3 was more or less in line with expectations but comes before a likely sharp drop in Q4 amid the impact of the war with Hamas. …
Rates on hold, tightening cycle at an end The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but warned it remained ready to raise interest rates further if necessary. However, with inflation likely to ease …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The rise in unemployment has further to run Although jobs growth gained momentum in October, a renewed uptick in the unemployment rate should ensure that the RBA doesn’t feel the …
