Filtered by Subscriptions: US Commercial Property Use setting US Commercial Property
All-property values edged down by 0.1% in Q4 but the magnitude of decline narrowed. Appraisal-based cap rates also fell for the first time since mid-2022. However, we still believe appraisals have further to fall given the narrow spread to risk-free …
28th February 2025
2024 likely marked the bottom in all-property values in Europe, but we expect further falls in the US in 2025. That said, US performance should improve further ahead, outpacing the euro-zone over the 2025-29 period. By sector, stronger rental growth will …
9th January 2025
All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough decline to over 20% by end-2025. At the sector level, we …
25th November 2024
The sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield in Q3 meant marked improvement in our property valuation scores. That left all-property looking “fairly valued” for the first time since the end of 2021. But the expected economic impact of a second Trump …
11th November 2024
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) …
2nd October 2024
Minimal movement in property yields and a slight edge up in the 10-year Treasury yield meant improvement in our property valuation scores stalled in the second quarter of the year. Despite the recent financial market turmoil, we still expect the 10-year …
15th August 2024
While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we expect the eventual peak-to-trough decline to …
14th August 2024
This chartpack is a new addition to our suite of commercial property analysis, which pulls together our views across the three regions we forecast and provides important context for investors. The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a …
3rd July 2024
Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change at the sector level. Industrial continued to look …
29th May 2024
Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still think cap rates need to climb by c. 80-100 bps to reach …
22nd May 2024
All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the total decline set to reach 26%. For offices, the …
20th February 2024
All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go above 5% for all-property. For offices, additional drivers …
4th December 2023
All-property values are down by 10% from their mid-2022 peaks, but we think there is still another 15% to come by the end of 2024. Much of that price fall will be driven by a rise in cap rates in response to higher interest rates. But, due to the …
23rd August 2023
The following is a presentation that Kiran Raichura gave to the NCREIF Summer Conference in Chicago on 12th July, 2023. … What does the new normal mean for real …
17th July 2023
Metro level data for Q1 2023 showed the slowdown in occupier demand was widespread, with no market consistently outperforming across the sectors in terms of absorption. While office and industrial asking rents continued to grow, they did so at a slower …
24th May 2023
The economy has been relatively resilient so far, but with the banking turmoil set to weigh on activity, we continue to expect a recession this year. Slower growth has already translated to softer occupier demand across all property sectors. This will …
19th May 2023
Data for the fourth quarter showed a widespread deterioration in occupier demand in all three sectors. This was worst in some of the big six and West coast metros, with markets like Phoenix, Portland and San Jose joining San Francisco and Chicago in …
22nd February 2023
While the recent economic data have surprised on the upside, property market indicators were broadly worse than expected in Q4. Occupier demand softened, particularly in the office and apartment sectors, as concerns about the outlook weighed on firms …
17th February 2023
Third quarter data showed growing evidence of a softening in tenant demand in many metros. In particular, demand appears to be slowing in a number of West Coast markets, as hybrid and remote work becomes embedded in work patterns and the cost of real …
29th November 2022
The sharp rise in Treasury yields this year has finally begun to feed through to the property data. Q3 investment activity fell by more than 20% on both a q/q and y/y basis, with loan originations also falling back notably. And valuers have begun to …
22nd November 2022
Q2 data showed a mixed picture across the three sectors. For offices, the northern coastal markets continue to lag, with rent growth turning positive but still weaker than most other markets. Houston had an awful quarter for demand, and new supply …
24th August 2022
As the economy slowed in Q2 and interest rates rose, investors appear to have become less willing to compete property yields lower and investment volumes look close to turning. While occupier demand was steady in most sectors, there were signs of a …
22nd August 2022
The metro level data confirmed another strong quarter for commercial real estate in Q1, though with the usual wide range of performance across sectors and cities. For offices, rents in the larger coastal markets continued to trail for the most part, while …
24th May 2022
Setting aside the drag from net exports on GDP growth, Q1 was another strong quarter for both the domestic economy and commercial real estate markets, highlighted by a record first quarter for investment volumes. But occupier demand is slowing in all four …
20th May 2022
This is our first US Commercial Property Metros Chart Book, which forms part of a set of publications that extends our existing analysis to a wider set of metros. As well as greater coverage of office and apartment metro markets, this publication also …
24th February 2022
While economic indicators point to slower growth this year, investors have so far been unperturbed, piling into the market in Q4 and driving record quarterly and annual investment totals. That was led by record activity in industrial and apartments, which …
18th February 2022
Economic growth slowed in Q3, but we expect it to pick up again in Q4. And with earnings growth and inflation at high levels, we see the Fed Funds Rate and 10-year bond yields rising over the next few years, reflecting the upturn in economic activity. …
18th November 2021
After a period of strong economic growth in H1 2021, with high inflation squeezing incomes and the spread of the Delta variant, the outlook for H2 is less positive. That said, we don’t expect this to have a major effect on occupier markets, which will …
18th August 2021
The economic recovery looks well-set, which should support occupier markets. However, structural change in the office sector means that occupier demand continues to fall, even while the beleaguered retail sector is showing improvement. Both of those …
13th May 2021
Fiscal and monetary stimulus have kept economic growth solid and will support a continued recovery. While this bodes well for occupier demand, structural factors have weighed heavily on the office and retail sectors. That weakness is set to persist this …
18th February 2021
Although the economy partially recovered in Q3, it is still operating well below capacity. Lower employment will weigh on the consumer sector over at least the next year. Office and retail have been the hardest hit sectors, with office sub-leasing …
20th November 2020
Occupier demand slowed further in Q2 and although completions were exceptionally weak, vacancy rose in most sectors. As a result, rental values fell in the office, retail and apartments sectors, while industrial rents only nudged higher, with the weakest …
14th August 2020
Measures to slow the spread of the virus have had a hugely detrimental impact on the US economy. This began to hit occupier demand in Q1, but is yet to be reflected in dramatic changes in vacancy or falls in rents. Nevertheless, valuers have already …
20th May 2020
Economic indicators have improved recently, but remain at low levels, meaning that the recovery in GDP growth is likely to be gradual. As a result, occupier demand is likely to continue to slow, keeping upward pressure on vacancy rates and causing rental …
21st February 2020
