Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
We expect house prices to fall a further 3% this year, resulting in a 5% decline in the year as a whole. Although prices may find a floor some time next year, a chronic lack of demand will probably mean they won't rise consistently until 2014. … Prices …
21st June 2011
As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a time when construction costs are rising and selling …
17th June 2011
The sharp fall in house prices in the first quarter provided further confirmation that this housing crash has been larger and faster than the one during the Great Depression. On the Case-Shiller index, the 1.9% q/q fall in the first quarter meant that …
15th June 2011
For anyone bamboozled by the abundance of house price indices, which can sometimes provide starkly different messages, we consider the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices to be the most useful and reliable. As it stands now, most of the evidence suggests …
14th June 2011
The fall in 30-year mortgage rates to a six-month low of 4.5% has not boosted mortgage applications for home purchase as more lenders are asking for a higher down payment at a time when more households are unable to afford it. … Mortgage Applications …
8th June 2011
The further fall in house prices in the first quarter means that on the Case-Shiller index prices have now fallen by more than they did during the Great Depression. On that occasion, the peak in prices was not regained until 19 years after they first …
31st May 2011
The housing downturn has gone from bad to worse, with the FHFA index showing that prices in the first quarter fell at a faster rate than at any time since the height of the financial crisis in late 2008. This time prices are not being driven down by a …
25th May 2011
The second consecutive strong rise in new home sales in April may even underestimate the recent rebound since the data exclude condo sales, which are probably performing better than sales of new single-family homes. Nonetheless, total new home sales are …
24th May 2011
Despite the modest fall in the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the first quarter, over four million homeowners are still in serious danger of losing their home. Moreover, it is worrying that nearly two years after the recession ended, the share of …
19th May 2011
17th May 2011
Over the next five years the rental market will be the best performing part of the residential housing market, with the multi-family sector doing particularly well. A sustained rise in rents is clearly not good for tenants, who are still feeling the ill …
16th May 2011
The latest evidence suggests that prices have started to fall at a faster pace once again. After having dropped by 1.0% m/m in both December and January, prices on the seasonally adjusted FHFA index fell by 1.6% m/m in February. Admittedly, the …
11th May 2011
Recent news has highlighted the severity of the renewed downturn in prices of single-family homes. Although condominiums will not escape altogether, over the next year or so condo prices are likely to fall by less than prices of single-family homes. … …
9th May 2011
Despite the latest fall back in mortgage rates, appetite for mortgage borrowing is still stuck in a rut. This supports our view that the cost of borrowing is not the problem. Instead, a number of long-term structural factors are constraining mortgage …
4th May 2011
In his first post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the impression that the Fed is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. … Fed in no hurry to tighten …
27th April 2011
The further decline in the homeownership rate in the first quarter provides yet more evidence that Americans are now less able and less willing to buy a home. The flipside is that the resulting increase in the demand for rental accommodation will boost …
House prices have started to drop at a faster pace and on some indices are now falling at rates not seen since the financial crisis. In contrast to most forecasters, we always thought that prices would fall throughout this year, by at least 5%. That …
26th April 2011
We are hopeful that the increase in new home sales in March marks the end of the downward trend that had taken sales to a record low. But with existing homes being sold at much more competitive prices, the demand for newly built properties will recover …
25th April 2011
March's existing home sales data provide more evidence that the economic recovery has bypassed the housing market. What's worse is that these figures may be overestimating the level of sales by up to 20%. Once revisions have been made in the summer, …
20th April 2011
The rebound in housing starts in March does little to hide the fact that homebuilding activity remains close to rock bottom. With both the demand and need for new homes still very low, housing starts aren't going to enjoy a more meaningful recovery for a …
19th April 2011
The combination of favourable valuations and exceptional affordability has made housing look like the bargain of a lifetime. But structural constraints on demand are preventing households from taking advantage. Add in the still poor supply picture, and …
18th April 2011
The further fall in house prices at the end of last year has made housing look more under-valued relative to income than ever before. (See Chart below.) This appears to be attracting cash buyers and investors back into the market. They have driven 70% of …
7th April 2011
Continued low mortgage rates and favourable housing valuations are still failing to stimulate mortgage demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in March still close to record lows. … Mortgage Applications …
6th April 2011
The housing market began 2011 in the same vein as it ended 2010, with prices heading south. Moreover, while the latest risk retention housing reform proposals are good for the long-term health of the market, they would surely drag out any recovery. … …
29th March 2011
The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. … New Home Sales …
23rd March 2011
The 9.6% m/m decline in existing home sales in February illustrates that, even if we allow for the possible impact of unseasonably severe weather last month, the housing market is still clearly years away from staging any meaningful recovery. … Existing …
21st March 2011
Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2 will be completed as planned. … Fed likely to complete …
15th March 2011
Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and investors. … Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity …
9th March 2011
7th March 2011
The fact that the recent rebound in existing home sales has been predominantly driven by cash buyers and investors places a question mark over the sustainability of that rebound. The concern is that there may be a limited pool of such buyers and that …
2nd March 2011
The outlook for new home sales will remain bleak as long as foreclosed homes can be snapped up at heavily discounted prices. Meanwhile, by excluding many foreclosed sales, the FHFA index may not be capturing the full downward pressure on prices. … New …
24th February 2011
The upward trend in existing home sales is set to remain slow and steady rather than speedy and spectacular. … Existing Home Sales …
23rd February 2011
House prices will decline by at least 5% this year. The real danger is that a vicious circle of falling prices and rising foreclosures drags prices down even further. … Another year of falling …
22nd February 2011
The further fall in the Case-Shiller measure of national house prices at the end of last year took prices to a new cycle low, meaning that a double-dip is now officially underway. Prices are likely to fall further this year too, perhaps by another 5%. … …
The Obama Administration's recent proposals to wind down the government-owned institutions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a market in which private businesses are the primary source of mortgage finance are laudable. But there are four key …
17th February 2011
Better labour market conditions led to a significant fall in the share of delinquent mortgages at the end of last year. Further falls in the unemployment rate this year are likely to push the delinquency rate even lower, but probably not by much. … …
The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the housing crash. That said, high affordability will still not …
14th February 2011
The renewed downward trend in house prices continued towards the end of last year, with prices on the 20-City Case-Shiller index falling for the fifth month in a row in November. (See Chart below.) Prices on the alternative FHFA index were stable. …
11th February 2011
The rebound in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has driven mortgage applications lower once again. With demand for mortgage borrowing still so weak, it is hard to see housing activity strengthening much this year. … Mortgage Applications …
9th February 2011
House prices have diverged from the levels that might be justified by income fundamentals in six periods over the last 35 years, but none of these episodes can be explained by the same set of factors. This is why we do not forecast house prices using an …
2nd February 2011
The declining homeownership rate and the rising vacancy rate support our view that the combination of weak housing demand and high supply will continue to undermine house prices this year. Conversely, rising demand and tight supply in the rental market …
31st January 2011
The tone of the Fed's latest policy statement suggests that neither the most recent pick up in economic growth nor the continued surge in commodity prices have had much of an impact on officials. Worried by the still elevated unemployment rate and low …
26th January 2011
The impressive increase in new home sales in December is mainly due to the rush to beat the deadline of a tax credit in California. Without that boost, new sales would have been broadly unchanged. Moreover, new sales in California will probably fall this …
The falls in house prices seen towards the end of last year are likely to continue throughout this year. We think that prices will fall by just over 5% in 2011, leaving them a little less than 5% below the previous cycle low. That will send more …
25th January 2011
The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high unemployment, tight credit conditions and fears of more price …
20th January 2011
December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain painfully weak for the next few years. … Housing Starts …
19th January 2011
The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards and …
11th January 2011
The recent improvement in economic conditions has done little to support housing demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in December remaining close to historically depressed levels. With mortgage rates now rising, the prospect of a …
5th January 2011
The Fed was always going to leave the size of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) unchanged today as it is too soon to judge whether it has been a success or a failure. If we are right in expecting the unemployment rate to remain very high and …
15th December 2010
The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all happening at a time when mortgage rates have remained …
1st December 2010
