Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The falls in house prices seen towards the end of last year are likely to continue throughout this year. We think that prices will fall by just over 5% in 2011, leaving them a little less than 5% below the previous cycle low. That will send more …
25th January 2011
The decent increase in existing home sales in December takes them marginally above the levels seen before sales were boosted and subsequently depressed by the homebuyer tax credit. But high unemployment, tight credit conditions and fears of more price …
20th January 2011
December's data on housing starts are a bit better than they look. Nonetheless, the combination of persistently weak demand and chronic excess supply means that homebuilding activity will remain painfully weak for the next few years. … Housing Starts …
19th January 2011
The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards and …
11th January 2011
The recent improvement in economic conditions has done little to support housing demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in December remaining close to historically depressed levels. With mortgage rates now rising, the prospect of a …
5th January 2011
The Fed was always going to leave the size of the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) unchanged today as it is too soon to judge whether it has been a success or a failure. If we are right in expecting the unemployment rate to remain very high and …
15th December 2010
The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all happening at a time when mortgage rates have remained …
1st December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bouncing along the bottom …
8th November 2010
The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers reveals a disturbing drop off in the demand for new loans and the renewed tightening of credit conditions for residential mortgages and other consumer loans. On this evidence, claims that quantitative easing …
The Fed's new programme of asset purchases is not going to pull the US economy out of its current malaise because, given the scale of the balance sheet problems affecting households and financial institutions, it is simply too modest. … Fed's QE2 is no …
3rd November 2010
A double-dip in both housing activity and prices is underway. Prices are likely to fall for the next 12 months, while activity will remain weak for at least three years. … Not out of the woods …
19th October 2010
House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See Chart below.) It is mildly encouraging that home sales …
13th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … QE2 still looks distant …
22nd September 2010
The floor has fallen out from underneath the housing market in the months since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. In July, total home sales fell by 26% m/m, to a level not seen in 17 years. Of course, this was largely due to purchases being …
8th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke offers no hint of further stimulus …
21st July 2010
The expiry of the homebuyer tax credit at the end of April has triggered a double-dip in the housing market, with new home sales falling particularly sharply in May. Of course, sales were always going to decline once the tax credit expired, as purchases …
13th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed on hold until 2012 …
23rd June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed on hold for some considerable time …
28th April 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed no nearer to first rate hike …
16th March 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke defends Fed's actions …
24th February 2010
The US government’s support for first-time buyers may not have boosted housing activity by as much as has been suggested. The good news is that this means more of the recovery is based on fundamental factors that should remain in place once the government …
4th February 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed holds steady …
27th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed offers no hint of a change in policy …
16th December 2009
The stronger than expected housing recovery will provide a welcome boost to consumption and employment. But such spill-over effects will not be large enough to prevent a prolonged period of sluggish consumer spending and labour market weakness. … Housing …
23rd November 2009
6th October 2009
The housing market appears to have turned a corner. Activity has levelled off and housing may now be significantly undervalued. Nonetheless, the large inventory overhang means that prices could still fall by another 5-10% this year. What’s more, if …
15th June 2009
The latest round of news on the housing market has been surprisingly upbeat but don’t be fooled into believing that the sector has bottomed out. … Is the US housing market …
14th August 2008
We estimate that over the next three years the financial losses resulting from the surge in defaults on US mortgages and other consumer loans will add up to close to $700bn, or 6% of US GDP . Roughly a third of those losses, or $235bn, will fall on …
23rd June 2008
Houses are still substantially over-valued even though prices have already fallen by around 10% on the Case-Shiller national index . An additional decline of between 10% and 15% this year would put house prices back in line with the fundamentals. …
19th May 2008
The meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector will have a significant impact on the US economy because of its consequences for the housing market, even if there are no contagion effects on the rest of the financial sector. But in a realistic worst …
15th March 2007
For close to a year now we have been predicting that a sharp housing-led slowdown in US economic growth would take hold in 2007. However, two recent developments have convinced us that the slowdown could be even more severe than we initially thought. …
19th September 2006
The end of the housing boom, which is apparently now underway, is arguably the biggest risk to the US economic outlook over the next couple of years . In previous Focus pieces we have argued that even a benign end to the boom, in which house prices …
27th February 2006
US house prices have risen by a little over 50% in the past five years, leaving housing looking more over-valued than ever before. Based on a range of benchmarks including incomes and rents, . we would judge that house prices are roughly 25% higher …
20th October 2005
The seemingly unstoppable US housing boom continues unabated with activity at high levels and prices rising sharply . . There are some disturbing parallels emerging, however, between the boom in the US and the later stages of the housing bubbles …
22nd June 2005
US house prices have staged the biggest continuous rise in their history. The resulting overvaluation may not be as severe as that in the UK and Australia, but it is still big enough to convince us that US house price inflation will soon slow to zero, …
20th July 2004
The rate of increase of US house prices has been particularly strong over the past 3 years. Indeed, house price inflation even accelerated in 2001, buoyed by falling mortgage interest rates, defying both the economic slowdown and the collapse in stock …
28th July 2003
The continued strength of consumer spending in the US over the past two years, despite a recession and big stockmarket losses, is principally due to the boom in mortgage refinancing, caused by low interest rates and the buoyant housing market. … Mortgage …
2nd December 2002
30th April 2002
