Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Housing market activity has improved in recent months, with both new and existing home sales rising in October and homebuilding activity holding on to its previous gains. This has yet to translate into better news on prices, however. In fact, the fall in …
8th December 2011
November’s rise in mortgage applications for home purchase are a glimmer of hope that record low mortgage rates and the improving labour market are finally having some positive effect on housing market activity. But demand will remain constrained by …
7th December 2011
After having stabilised during the summer, in the three months to October prices on the CoreLogic index fell at an annualised rate of 7.5%. This is clearly disappointing when the domestic economy needs to be strong to cope with any fallout from Europe. …
6th December 2011
House prices were still falling in the third quarter and we don’t think that they’ve stabilised in this quarter either. Even when prices do reach their trough, which could be next year, a continued influx of foreclosed and vacant properties onto the …
29th November 2011
The 1.3% m/m rise in new home sales in October was not especially encouraging given that it came at the expense of a 3.3% downward revision to the previous month’s numbers. More generally, new home sales are not going to return to normal levels while new …
28th November 2011
The modest rise in existing home sales in October may reflect the recent improvements in economic activity and the labour market. But a sustained and significant recovery in home sales is just not on the cards when large numbers of potential buyers are …
21st November 2011
The further fall in the share of households behind on their mortgage in the third quarter is another piece of good news for the housing market. But the delinquency rate remains high and the large number of homes still in the shadow inventory will cast a …
17th November 2011
Housing starts held broadly steady in October, leaving the modest upward trend of recent months intact. But the bigger picture is that starts are on course to total just 600,000 or so in 2011 as a whole and only slightly more next year. That would leave …
The latest evidence suggests that the stabilisation in house prices seen over the summer is giving way to further price falls. In September, our seasonally adjusted measure of the CoreLogic index fell by 1.1% m/m. That was the largest drop in a year. …
9th November 2011
Estimates of the shadow inventory vary, but by our calculations more than four million homes are waiting in the wings and will eventually add to the supply of properties for sale. That will prevent a normalisation in the visible inventory for several …
8th November 2011
The acceleration in the rate at which the CoreLogic house price index is falling reflects the slowing in the pace of job creation and wider economic growth earlier this year. Prices may well fall further in the closing months of the year and, despite …
7th November 2011
The Fed opted to stay on the sidelines today. Most probably because FOMC members want more time to judge how effective the Operation Twist programme announced at the last meeting in September has been, but also because the improved tone of the incoming …
2nd November 2011
The modest increase in the rental vacancy rate in the third quarter does little to alter our view that rental yields will soon rise above 5.5%, comfortably beating the yields available on Treasuries and equities. Meanwhile, the homeownership rate remains …
The fact that mortgage applications for home purchase fell again in October, despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates touching fresh lows, underlines our long held position that the demand for housing will remain weak for the foreseeable future. … Mortgage …
Even after the 5.7% m/m rebound in new home sales to 313,000 annualised in September, from 296,000 the month before, purchases are still close to a record low and only a quarter of what they were during the boom years in the mid-2000s. … New Home Sales …
27th October 2011
The latest report on house prices from Case-Shiller suggest that the housing market has been a little bit softer than previously thought. In seasonally adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller 20-City house price index was broadly unchanged in August and prices …
26th October 2011
The modest fall in existing home sales in September shows that the housing market is struggling to gain any traction in this poor economic climate. In fact, it is hard to see home sales rising at all when mortgage applications are at a 15-year low and …
21st October 2011
The 15% m/m rise in housing starts in September comes hot on the heels of the rise in the NAHB homebuilders' index to a 17-month high in October and suggests that housing may finally be helping the wider economy. But we would warn against getting too …
20th October 2011
Recent suggestions that home sales are being held back by a lack of inventory are misguided as the excess inventory may still amount to one million homes. Moreover, the "shadow inventory" may consist of another four million homes. The problem is therefore …
18th October 2011
The previous declines in house prices and the more recent drop in mortgage rates to record lows have created an unusual situation in which the median monthly mortgage payment is more or less the same as the median rental payment. But we don't expect this …
13th October 2011
The 0.4% m/m decline in CoreLogic's measure of house prices in August may be the start of the renewed modest acceleration in price declines that we have been warning about. Prices may still stabilise next year, but consistent rises are a long way off. … …
7th October 2011
September's mortgage applications figures suggest that the decrease in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of this week won't significantly reduce mortgage demand. Nevertheless, the weak economy and the legacy of the housing crash, which has left …
6th October 2011
Recent evidence showing that fewer Americans see owning a home as a central part of the American Dream and that fewer have a credit score high enough to make that dream a reality supports our long-held view that structural constraints will prevent a …
5th October 2011
A persistent deficit in demand means that even when house prices finally find a floor, which could happen next year, they won't rebound rapidly. Sustained price gains are unlikely until 2014 at the earliest. … No real recovery in …
29th September 2011
The 0.1% m/m rise in Case-Shiller 20-City house prices in July is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained and significant recovery in prices. We still expect prices to fall back a bit later this year. And even when they do eventually stabilise, a …
28th September 2011
In a month when both equity prices and confidence plunged and fears of another recession soared, the 2.3% m/m decline in new home sales in August could have been much worse. Nonetheless, in the current climate a new home is a luxury that many Americans …
27th September 2011
Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities that mature in more than six years and selling an equal …
22nd September 2011
Given the recent sharp falls in equity prices and consumer confidence, there is a real risk that the 7.7% m/m rise in existing home sales in August will not be sustained. Without a significant surge in sales, sustained price gains just aren't possible. … …
The further fall in housing starts in August adds to other evidence, such as the recent drop in consumer confidence and fall in mortgage approvals, suggesting that demand for new homes remains close to rock bottom. This goes some way to explaining why …
21st September 2011
Any changes to the Administration's current program that would allow more households to refinance their mortgage at a lower rate would be welcome. But such moves won't provide a major boost to the economy or the housing market. Moreover, they don't …
16th September 2011
Even though mortgage rates have fallen to record lows and housing has become more undervalued relative to incomes than ever before, the number of home sales has continued to decline. More striking is that this is solely due to a weakening in demand from …
15th September 2011
The latest mortgage applications figures illustrate how ultra-loose monetary policy is failing to boost economic activity. Despite the fall in 30-year mortgage rates to within a whisker of a record low, mortgage applications for refinancing have risen …
8th September 2011
The FHFA's new "expanded-data" house price index is better than its other indices as it includes some purchases made with cash and non-conforming loans. However, as it is still a less comprehensive measure than both the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices, …
7th September 2011
We are wary of reading too much into CoreLogic's fairly optimistic house price report for July, which showed that seasonally adjusted prices fell by just 0.1% m/m, when prices have yet to respond to the recent weakening in demand. The simple truth is that …
1st September 2011
With the economy weakening again, confidence falling and the labour market recovery faltering the rise in Case-Shiller house prices in the second quarter probably does not mark the end of the housing downturn. Even if it did, a persistent lack of demand …
31st August 2011
The 0.7% m/m decline in new home sales in July built on the downward trend of the previous six months and highlights just how fragile the housing market remains five years after boom first turned to bust. … New Home Sales …
24th August 2011
The most worrying thing about the modest rise in the mortgage delinquency rate in the second quarter is that it was due to more homeowners falling behind on their mortgage payments for the first time. The weaker economy and rebound in the unemployment …
23rd August 2011
The 3.5% m/m fall in existing home sales in July shows that the housing market will not pull the US economy out of its current malaise. In fact, it appears that the recent economic slowdown has already put a dent in housing demand. … Existing Home Sales …
19th August 2011
The modest fall back in the number of housing starts in July highlights that the housing market will not be able to pull the US economy out of its current funk. In fact, the danger is that the recent weakening in the economic outlook leads to even less …
17th August 2011
The failure of home sales to rebound in June after they had been depressed by unusually severe weather may have been an early sign that the recent economic slowdown is restraining housing demand. This view is supported by the absence of any meaningful …
16th August 2011
The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core inflation and the growing division at the Fed mean …
10th August 2011
While in the long-term foreigners will increasingly want a slice of the American housing dream, over the next five years a rise in demand from overseas buyers will not be large enough to bring the national housing market back to life. That said, housing …
5th August 2011
CoreLogic's measure of house prices shows that, after stripping out the normal seasonal uplift, prices fell back in June. With the number of mortgage applications having declined in July and the economy weakening once again, house prices are more likely …
4th August 2011
The poor economic climate, the double dip in house prices, the high number of foreclosures and tight credit conditions are all reasons why the homeownership rate will continue to fall. The flipside will be a further surge in demand for rented …
30th July 2011
May's Case-Shiller house price index suggests that the five-year-long decline in house prices may be more or less over. But with June's new home sales data confirming that housing demand remains depressed, a rapid rebound in prices is not on the cards. … …
27th July 2011
The further fall in the number of existing home sales in June, to 4.77m from 4.81m in May, suggests that the recent deterioration in economic conditions has already hit the housing market. … Existing Home Sales …
21st July 2011
The 14.6% m/m leap in housing starts in June, to a five-month high of 629,000 from 549,000 in May, is not the start of a significant and sustained surge in homebuilding. Instead, it reflects a rebound in activity after the unusually severe tornados and …
20th July 2011
The recent rises in house prices are nothing more than the normal seasonal uplift triggered by the better weather and the end of the school year. After stripping out such seasonal effects, prices on both the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indices are still …
15th July 2011
The expected downward revisions to the number of existing homes sales will not be the disaster widely assumed. Because the house price data will be unchanged, it could even be considered good news as it means any given fall in housing demand translates …
12th July 2011
It seems very unlikely that the recent easing in the rate at which house prices are falling can develop into sustained and significant price gains at a time when mortgage demand is still in the gutter. … Mortgage Applications …
7th July 2011
