Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Buyers pushed to new build sector New home sales recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels in April as a lack of existing homes for sale pushed buyers to the new build sector. But still-stretched affordability and a weakening economy will prevent new home …
23rd May 2023
Sales in a slump Existing home sales fell back towards their recent lows in April, not helped by a very tight inventory. The high cost of a new mortgage is acting to discourage homeowners with a low fixed-rate mortgage from moving, which is disrupting …
18th May 2023
Weakening economy to weigh on starts Homebuilders have turned their attention to finishing off the large number of homes under construction rather than starting new ones, keeping single-family starts close to their recent lows in April. While starts …
17th May 2023
The downturn in the housing market appears to have paused in many countries in recent weeks. However, we doubt that this marks the bottom of the market. With higher interest rates yet to take their full effect, and affordability generally still stretched, …
15th May 2023
The US housing market has been largely unaffected by the banking sector turmoil. Indeed, buyer sentiment rose to an 11-month high in April and activity appears to have bottomed out. Tighter credit conditions could yet weigh on the market, but the latest …
10th May 2023
While home sales have plummeted, house prices have fallen just 3% so far and eked out a small gain in February. We think this reflects the role that tight supply is playing in this downturn, with the number of homes for sale at record lows. Given supply …
5th May 2023
Demand in line with post-GFC lows The slight rise in mortgage applications in April left them little changed from their recent lows, pointing to further near-term weakness in sales. While we expect affordability will gradually improve, growing economic …
3rd May 2023
The housing market will face growing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, slowing income growth and rising unemployment as the economy enters a recession this year. That will offset some of the impact of lower mortgage rates, and means housing market …
27th April 2023
House price growth turns positive New home sales jumped in March and house prices increased 0.2% m/m in February. The continued resilience of the housing market means the risk to our forecast of an 8% drop in house prices are now to the upside. But …
25th April 2023
Sales continue weak start to the year Existing home sales edged lower in March rounding off the weakest start to the year in over a decade. While the lending data point to further declines in April, we expect mortgage rates will fall back to 5.75% …
20th April 2023
Slow recovery in construction activity Single-family starts rose for the second consecutive month in March which adds weight to the view that starts have bottomed out. Building permits and homebuilder confidence also edged higher. But stretched …
18th April 2023
We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an outright fall in several of the major markets as well …
12th April 2023
Mortgage applications boosted by banking turmoil A sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields in the middle of March led to a drop in mortgage rates, restoking demand for mortgage applications as a result. We expect this will help offset a tightening in …
5th April 2023
The latest mortgage market data show that the banking crisis has, so far, had a minimal impact on the housing market. While spreads have increased, overall mortgage rates have dropped and applications for home purchase have increased since SVB collapsed. …
30th March 2023
House prices still falling slowly, but more to come House prices continued to nudge lower in January, taking the total fall since their June 2022 peak to 3.0%. But with affordability still stretched, we expect price falls to continue over the coming …
28th March 2023
Homebuilder incentives support new home sales The modest recovery in new home sales continued in February reflecting support from price reductions and incentives offered by homebuilders, as well as a tight existing home market pushing buyers to the new …
23rd March 2023
While real estate is not the main cause of the current financial turbulence, as it was in the late 2000s, it has played an indirect role and may be implicated in any further instability. And property will also be vulnerable to the effects of recent …
21st March 2023
Rebound in sales likely to reverse Existing home sales rebounded in February as buyers took advantage of falling mortgage rates. Weak mortgage applications data point to sales dropping back again in March, but with turmoil in the banking sector contained …
While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of whether more financial institutions run into trouble, …
20th March 2023
The direct impact on real estate of the collapse of two US regional banks over the weekend is likely to be relatively small. But we expect lending criteria to become more cautious in the short-term, which will weigh on the supply of real estate debt. …
16th March 2023
We have already outlined some different scenarios of how things might evolve from here and it is still possible that the situation calms down quickly. But in this Update , we think through how the more adverse of our scenarios might evolve. There are …
Tighter credit conditions add to headwinds facing construction Single-family housing starts continued their weak start to the year in February with a marginal month-on-month increase. While forward looking indicators appear to have turned a corner, …
Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove mortgage applications for home purchase lower and means …
14th March 2023
In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years, affordability looks most stretched in the West. This has been …
6th March 2023
Rise in mortgage rates cuts home demand Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales staying close to …
1st March 2023
House prices set for further falls in 2023 Despite a sixth consecutive month of falling house prices in December, affordability was still stretched even before the renewed rise in mortgage rates. As a result, it is likely that prices will continue to fall …
28th February 2023
New home sales continue to outperform wider market Price reductions and generous incentives offered by homebuilders helped new home sales continue to outperform the wider market in January. But a renewed rise in mortgage rates will weigh on new home …
24th February 2023
Sales fall, but at much slower pace The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough. But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will recover only …
21st February 2023
This dashboard contains our forecasts for the US housing market and key macro indicators. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of each chart or table. If …
There are growing signs that stretched affordability is weighing on homeownership, particularly for the under 35s. We expect this to persist in the coming quarters. But there is a large pool of young adults waiting to purchase their first home once …
17th February 2023
Starts fall back in January despite warm weather Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an increase …
16th February 2023
Overview – Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past standards, especially in the first half of …
10th February 2023
We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and apartment demand to soften. We have argued since mid-2022 that …
9th February 2023
Falling mortgage rates lift housing demand from trough The sharp rise in mortgage applications in January adds to the evidence that housing demand has bottomed out. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower and house prices fall a further 6%, we expect …
1st February 2023
Prices down 2.5% from peak and further falls to come A fifth consecutive monthly decline in house prices in November left them down 2.5% from their peak in June on the Case-Shiller index. We think that prices will fall by a further 6% this year before …
31st January 2023
Our forecasts for house prices, mortgage rates and incomes over the next few years mean affordability will remain relatively stretched compared with the past 15 years. But there is good reason to think that mortgage payments as a share of income were …
27th January 2023
Resilient new home sales set for gradual recovery The small rise in new home sales in December confirmed that the new build sector is holding up better than the wider market. This likely reflects builders offering generous incentives to attract buyers as …
26th January 2023
Sales continue to fall, but end is in sight The modest fall in existing home sales in December suggests the impact of the spike in mortgage rates last year has largely washed through. The recent fall in mortgage rates has helped to lift homebuyer …
20th January 2023
Starts hold up better than expected Single-family housing starts surprised on the upside in December. But it is too soon to call the bottom of the market. Indeed, another substantial fall in permits means we think starts are set to resume their downward …
19th January 2023
There are growing signs that housing market activity may be close to a trough. The decline in mortgage rates over the past couple of months has led to a small improvement in affordability and a rise in homebuyer sentiment, albeit from a record low. …
12th January 2023
Our updated remote worker metro ranking shows some important changes since the end of the pandemic, though the winners remain in the South. Nashville tops the table, having climbed seven places. Tucson and Memphis also climb into the top 10, with …
11th January 2023
A large part of the real estate sector’s carbon footprint is related to electricity production and so will shrink over time as the use of renewables continues to expand. The biggest challenges to reducing property sector emissions will be in emerging …
9th January 2023
While we expect mortgage rates will fall to 5.75% by end-2023, affordability will remain stretched. Alongside a weakening economy and falling house prices that will weigh on housing market activity. Indeed, we think 2023 will be the worst year for sales …
6th January 2023
Lending weak, but no longer falling A second consecutive increase in home purchase applications in December suggests that declining mortgage rates have allowed buyer demand to bottom out. Indeed, as we expect mortgage rates to continue to fall, the …
4th January 2023
Click here to read the full report. We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of the markets with the …
29th December 2022
New home sales increase despite jump in mortgage rates New home sales increased for the second month in a row in November. That is at odds with other measures of market activity, which have fallen sharply in response to the jump in mortgage rates. We …
23rd December 2022
Spike in mortgage rates feeds through to sales Existing home sales experienced their largest drop in nine months in November, as October’s spike in mortgage rates fed through to sales. But mortgage rates have since dropped back and are likely to fall …
21st December 2022
Weak new home demand weighs on starts Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November as weak new home demand weighed on homebuilder confidence. We expect this to push starts down to a trough of 650,000 annualised in the coming months, before a …
20th December 2022
This is part of a series of reports outlining our key macro and market calls for 2023. Click here to view the full series. Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But …
15th December 2022
A fall in mortgage rates from 20-year highs supported the first rise in home purchase demand in eight months in November. Given that mortgage rates are likely to continue to trend lower from here, sales should soon bottom out. But the big picture is …
14th December 2022
