Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The softer pace of economic growth in the second half of the year may lead to a slight moderation in the pace of house price gains. But the bigger picture is that growing buyer interest and a tight supply of homes for sale mean that the housing recovery …
6th September 2012
Mortgage applications for home purchase fell sharply in August, providing further evidence that mortgage-dependent buyers are barely contributing to the recovery in housing market activity. Without a significant easing in credit conditions, it’s hard to …
5th September 2012
Despite the slowdown in the pace of wider economic growth, house prices are growing strongly. Moreover, the recovery looks broad based, encompassing both distressed and non-distressed homes. … CoreLogic House Prices …
4th September 2012
The moderation in the pace of economic growth does not appear to have had a significant detrimental impact on the recovery in US house prices. At the end of the second quarter, prices on the National, as well as the 10-City and 20-City Composite indices …
28th August 2012
July’s rise in new home sales was clearly welcome news. And it does little to dissuade us from the view that the housing market has shifted from being a clear drag on the wider economy to offering some modest support. … New Home Sales …
23rd August 2012
For now, our view that the recent dip in existing home sales was not the start of a weaker trend seems to be on track. But the combination of a subdued outlook for US economic growth and tight mortgage credit conditions suggests that a normalisation in …
22nd August 2012
The recent rise in residential land values is unlikely to be a one-off. Admittedly, with the level of new home sales still low and house prices gains to remain fairly modest, the pace of the initial recovery will be subdued. But the bottom line is that we …
16th August 2012
Housing starts fell slightly in July, but the forward-looking indicators rose once again. The upshot is that homebuilding will continue to support the wider economic recovery. … Housing Starts …
The sharp slowdown in jobs growth seems to have fed through rapidly to the mortgage delinquency rate, which rose for the first time in a year in the second quarter. There was better news on the foreclosure inventory, which declined in Q2. … Mortgage …
9th August 2012
June’s sharp drop in home sales has lead to concerns that the recovery in housing market demand is already stalling. However, while job creation and GDP growth will remain lacklustre, the signs are that housing market activity will improve again in the …
8th August 2012
CoreLogic’s measure of house prices posted another strong gain in June. But unlike in recent months, the latest rise was marginally weaker than we would expect in a typical June, meaning that seasonally-adjusted house prices actually eased a touch. … …
7th August 2012
Home sales fell by 5.6% m/m in June, the largest monthly decline for 16 months. But this is unlikely to signal that the recovery in housing demand has run out of steam already. For one, pending home sales are still running at a level that looks consistent …
6th August 2012
Despite acknowledging the evident slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed declined to take any additional action at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting today. It did, however, offer a hint that it might be prepared to do more at the next meeting in …
1st August 2012
The latest mortgage applications data provide further evidence that record low mortgage rates are doing little to boost demand among mortgage-dependent buyers. Meanwhile, the FHFA has reaffirmed its opposition to principal forgiveness on mortgages held by …
The fourth successive rise in the Case-Shiller measure of seasonally-adjusted house prices means that prices are experiencing more than just their usual seasonal lift. Moreover, tight supply conditions and an underlying improvement in demand suggest that …
31st July 2012
The very modest increase in the homeownership rate in Q2 does not persuade us to alter our view that the share of the population who own their home will fall further over the next couple of years. Meanwhile, supply conditions in the rental market are …
27th July 2012
News of mortgage rates falling to fresh lows may have become an almost weekly occurrence, but there’s relatively little evidence that this is translating into stronger housing demand among mortgage dependent buyers. The underlying improvement in sales …
26th July 2012
The 8.4% m/m fall in new home sales in June was further evidence that the recovery in housing demand has lost a little momentum. But with supply conditions in the market for new homes still tight, today’s release does not materially change the outlook for …
25th July 2012
The steep drop in existing home sales in June is clearly disappointing, but we always expected the housing recovery to be choppy and today’s release is consistent with that. In any case, given that the number of homes for sale also fell sharply, the …
19th July 2012
The improvement in housing starts in June was further evidence that the housing recovery is holding up even as the wider economic recovery has lost a considerable amount of momentum. … Housing Starts …
18th July 2012
Over the next few years, it’s plausible that tight credit, subdued confidence and many more foreclosures will drive the homeownership rate down to 64%, from 65.4% now. Over a longer horizon, the case for further falls in the homeownership rate hinges on …
The reluctance of homeowners who are in negative equity to sell their home and realise a loss is one explanation for the sharp fall in the visible inventory over the past few years. Nevertheless, because it is also acting, broadly speaking, as an equal …
16th July 2012
Annualised growth on the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic house price indices over the past three months stands at 6.2% and 9% respectively. However, price growth may moderate in the second half of the year. For one, the slowdown in the economy is likely to …
12th July 2012
While another fall in mortgage rates saw remortgaging applications surge higher in June as a whole, applications for home purchase remained stuck in the doldrums. Nevertheless, this isn’t preventing a modest housing recovery from taking shape. … …
5th July 2012
May’s 0.4% m/m rise in our seasonally-adjusted measure of CoreLogic house prices marks the fifth successive month in which prices have increased. While the recent strong pace of monthly house price gains may now be moderating, 2012 as a whole is on track …
2nd July 2012
Problems with the seasonal adjustment process, caused by the unusually high share of distressed sales in recent years, may be giving a misleading impression of the strength of house prices over the past few months. Nevertheless, extracting from these …
28th June 2012
The recent strong upwards momentum in house prices may not be sustained for much longer. Nevertheless, 2012 should mark not only the end of the US house price downturn, but the first year since 2006 in which prices rise. … Case-Shiller House Prices …
26th June 2012
Despite the unusually high price of new homes relative to their pre-owned equivalents, new home sales rose strongly in May. The implication appears to be that Americans are becoming more willing to splash out on the extra cost of a new home. … New Home …
25th June 2012
The slight fall in existing home sales in May suggests that, with economic activity indicators weakening, the recovery in housing market demand has lost a little bit of momentum. Nevertheless, if we are right that the economy will continue growing at or …
21st June 2012
In the end, the Fed opted to extend its Maturity Extension Programme (aka Operation Twist) for another six months, but there was no new large-scale asset purchase programme (QE3). Nevertheless, the accompanying statement again warned that "strains in …
20th June 2012
Driven by strong investor demand, the modest recovery in housing market activity will not only continue into the second half of 2012 and beyond, it will spread to encompass house prices, which will rise this year. … House prices will rise this …
The 4.8% m/m fall in housing starts in May could be an early sign that the recent slowdown in the wider economy has taken some of the wind out of the sails of the improvement in housing market activity. Nevertheless, the latest drop in starts is perhaps …
19th June 2012
The improvement in housing market activity has not only put a floor under house prices, but, in recent months, has driven them higher. With the big caveat that much depends on how severe the effects from the euro-zone crisis on the US economy eventually …
14th June 2012
The weaker tone of the economic and labour market data has yet to be reflected in the housing numbers. Home sales rose by 3.4% m/m in April and are 10% higher than a year ago. The fact that improving housing market activity has been driven by cash-buyers …
8th June 2012
The small fall in mortgage applications for home purchase suggests that, despite record low mortgage rates, the renewed weakness in the labour market is starting to weigh on housing demand. … Mortgage Applications …
6th June 2012
The modest improvement in housing demand combined with recent increases in homebuilder confidence are reasons to think that the fall in average new home floor space should be drawing to an end. But the increase in the share of (typically smaller) housing …
31st May 2012
In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller national house price index reported its strongest quarterly gain for two-and-a-half years. And with the economic recovery now on firmer ground, we see no reason to alter our view that US house prices have now …
29th May 2012
April’s 3.3% m/m rise in new home sales adds to the impression that homebuilders are starting to feel some of the benefits of improving housing market activity. Moreover, the rising proportion of new homes which are selling earlier in the construction …
23rd May 2012
The rise in existing home sales in April suggests that the modest recovery in housing market activity is back on track. The improvement is being driven almost entirely by cash buyers and investors, which means that existing home sales can continue rising …
22nd May 2012
The sheer extent of undervaluation in the housing market, combined with the prospect of a sustained if modest economic and labour market improvement, should ensure that the current, gradual housing recovery continues under its own steam. … The housing …
21st May 2012
Differences in foreclosure procedures will be one determinant of when State-level housing markets improve. While the national housing market is in the early stages of a recovery, many of the judicial foreclosure States which are struggling to clear their …
18th May 2012
The good news is that the number of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgage continued to fall in the first quarter. But that didn’t change the big picture that the large overhang of homeowners who are seriously delinquent or already in foreclosure …
16th May 2012
The 2.6% m/m rise in housing starts in April, alongside the big upward revisions to earlier data, supports our view that housing is in recovery mode. Driven in particular by the multi-family sector, we expect housing starts to rise further later this …
March’s further fall in home sales is a potentially worrying sign that the improvement in housing market activity is already petering out. But we are encouraged by the fact that pending home sales are still increasing strongly. Admittedly, pending home …
9th May 2012
House prices rose in March and based on leading indicators, the short-term trend could strengthen further in the coming months. Over the year as a whole, however, house prices are more likely to stabilise than to post strong gains. … CoreLogic House …
8th May 2012
The further rise in mortgage applications for home purchase is an encouraging sign that mortgage-dependent buyers are beginning to contribute to the improvement in home sales. But with credit conditions still very tight, for now cash-buyers and investors …
2nd May 2012
Supply conditions in the rental sector are tightening as the proportion of households renting reached a 15 year high in Q1. We think that the rental rate may rise slightly further yet, with the necessary flipside being that fewer households will own their …
30th April 2012
The short histories of US house price expectations and asking price data mean that their ability to give an early steer on house price movements is relatively untested. Nevertheless, the fact that both have risen noticeably in recent months is, at the …
26th April 2012
The statement issued today after the two-day FOMC meeting indicates that the majority of Fed officials are content to wait and see how the US recovery develops. In particular, the statement reaffirmed the FOMC's conditional commitment to leave the fed …
25th April 2012
The small rise in the Case-Shiller index in February supports our view that house prices are either very close to, or already through, their trough. But with new home sales still very subdued in March, it doesn’t look like a rapid rebound is on the cards. …
24th April 2012
