Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
There is no evidence to suggest that homeownership aspirations amongst young households have diminished in recent years. And some of the cyclical factors holding back demand have also eased sharply. This suggests that factors such as credit scoring and …
11th May 2015
The latest decline in the share of households suffering mortgage payment problems provides more evidence that the housing market is slowly normalising. To the extent that it encourages lenders to ease credit conditions and make more loans, it’s also …
6th May 2015
The sharp rise in home purchase mortgage applications in April suggests that the market could finally be turning a corner after several years of stagnation. It’s early days yet, but the conditions certainly seem to be in place for a long-overdue upturn. …
Although the CoreLogic index of house prices surged again in March, we suspect that it is somewhat overstating the true strength of the market. … CoreLogic House Prices …
5th May 2015
Although today’s data suggest house price growth slowed slightly at the start of the year, they support our view that rental inflation could soon reach a 25-year high. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates / Case-Shiller …
28th April 2015
The fall in new home sales in March is more likely to be a temporary payback after strong growth in previous months rather than a sign that housing activity is starting to cool again. In any case, there are good reasons to expect stronger sales over the …
23rd April 2015
The leap in existing home sales to an 18-month high in March shows that sales are finally gathering momentum after a slow start to 2015. Looser credit conditions and strong growth in jobs and incomes should contribute to a sustained strengthening in …
22nd April 2015
The weight of evidence suggests that the mortgage market is making a bigger contribution to the housing recovery than some of the most widely watched indicators imply. Combined with the prospect of continued strong growth in jobs and incomes, this makes …
20th April 2015
The modest rise in housing starts in March suggests that homebuilding has taken longer than expected to recover from February’s weather-related collapse. Nonetheless, this simply means that there is still scope for a much larger rebound in the coming …
16th April 2015
Following the weather-related weakness at the start of the year, new home sales surged 7.8% m/m to a seven-year high in February. Existing sales rebounded by 1.2% m/m, despite another large drop in the snow-hit Northeast. Looking ahead, we expect the …
8th April 2015
Weak data for March show that the mortgage market continues to stagnate. However, although refinancing activity will fade as interest rates rise, the conditions are in place for stronger home purchase applications and home sales this year. … Mortgage …
2nd April 2015
A gradual rise in borrowing costs as the Fed raises interest rates from historic lows won’t derail the housing recovery. We expect favourable affordability, looser credit conditions and the strength of the wider economy to spur stronger sales and price …
27th March 2015
Together with the rise in existing home sales reported yesterday, the surge in new home sales, to a seven-year high in February, appears to confirm that the weakness in housing activity at the start of this year was just a blip. … New Home Sales …
24th March 2015
The modest rise in existing home sales in February suggests that the market is now recovering after a weak start to the year. Looser credit conditions and the strength of the wider economy should support stronger demand in the coming months. … Existing …
23rd March 2015
Anecdotal evidence suggests that labour shortages continue to hold back homebuilding. However, there are few signs in the macroeconomic data of a widespread problem. Instead, we expect stronger housing demand to support homebuilding and construction …
18th March 2015
The collapse in housing starts in February was largely a result of the unseasonably severe winter weather affecting the Northeast. With the wider economy growing strongly and credit conditions loosening, we expect starts to rebound before long. … Housing …
17th March 2015
A fall in the share of young adults living with their parents should provide a boost to household formation over the next few years. This is an upside risk to our forecasts for sales and housing demand and, perhaps, homebuilding, but it is unlikely to …
12th March 2015
The CoreLogic measure of house prices surged by a seasonally-adjusted 1.4% m/m in January, the largest monthly gain in almost two years. This acceleration appears to have been caused by the tightness of supply conditions in recent months. Moreover, with …
10th March 2015
The rise in mortgage rates put a dampener on mortgage applications in February. However, with affordability set to remain favourable and the wider economy growing strongly, mortgage volumes and home sales should strengthen from here. … Mortgage …
4th March 2015
A surge in house price inflation in January could be the start of a temporary period of faster price growth, caused by tighter supply conditions and the strength of the wider economy. But with housing now close to fair value, we don’t expect house price …
3rd March 2015
At 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, the mortgage delinquency rate has fallen close to the long run average of 5.0%-5.5%. Admittedly, the foreclosure start rate and foreclosure inventory rate, although barely half of peak levels, still look …
26th February 2015
New home sales sustained almost all of December’s seven-year high in January, falling by a marginal 0.2% m/m. The strong labour market and loosening mortgage credit conditions mean that the outlook for new home sales is encouraging. … New Home Sales …
25th February 2015
December marked the fourth consecutive month during which house prices rose by at least 0.5% m/m. The slight acceleration in price growth at the end of last year reflects the tightening in housing market supply conditions. But with housing no longer …
24th February 2015
The drop in home sales at the start of 2015 is not a sign that the (admittedly lacklustre) housing recovery is coming off the rails. Strong employment growth and signs that wage growth will soon accelerate point to a rebound in existing home sales before …
23rd February 2015
With mortgage credit conditions loosening, the labour market on fire and household formation strengthening, January’s decline in housing starts should soon give way to solid gains in homebuilding. … Housing Starts …
18th February 2015
The Census Bureau’s estimate of household formation as part of its Homeownership & Vacancy Survey was a very encouraging 1.7m in 2014. Admittedly, that’s significantly above the alternative Current Population Survey measure, which only rose by 0.8m last …
10th February 2015
The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to an 18-month low of 3.8%, is starting to be reflected in mortgage applications. Refinancing activity is set for a sustained boom, while the lift to mortgage applications for home purchase should help …
4th February 2015
House price pressures came off the boil at the end of 2014, with the year-on-year rate of house price inflation at or around 5% during the final four months of the year. With the supply of homes for sale set to move closer into balance with demand, prices …
3rd February 2015
The homeownership rate fell again at the end of last year, but the decade-long decline in the share of the population who own their home may now be drawing to an end. In the meantime, however, supply conditions in the rental market are at their tightest …
29th January 2015
The recent decline in mortgage interest rates will trigger a refinancing boom that will span the first half of 2015. But it will be more modest than the one in 2012, and the benefits in terms of lower mortgage delinquencies and higher consumption will …
The strong rise in new home sales in December, which followed an encouraging gain in existing home sales in the same month, means that housing market supply conditions are tightening. That’s putting upward pressure on house prices, which posted the …
27th January 2015
November’s 6% drop in existing home sales always looked suspicious, given the strength of recent macro-economic data and the drop in borrowing costs. So confirmation that sales ended the year on a stronger note is a welcome, if largely anticipated, …
23rd January 2015
The rise in housing starts in December, as well as the upward revisions to the previous two months’ data, suggests that homebuilding was gathering momentum in the closing stages of 2014. The latest decline in mortgage interest rates and the encouraging …
21st January 2015
The decline in long-term Treasury yields almost certainly means that 30-year mortgage interest rates have further to fall and that any subsequent rises will be more gradual than we previously anticipated. The upshot is that housing will remain affordable …
20th January 2015
If production and employment are scaled back, housing markets in some oil-producing States, which have recently been among the most buoyant, could potentially suffer. But any drag that this may generate will be more than offset by the wider boost to …
12th January 2015
The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to within a whisker of 4%, as well as the rip-roaring performance of the labour market, are yet to be reflected in mortgage applications. But there are good reasons to think that lending will pick up …
7th January 2015
It is too soon to tell whether the slight moderation in the month-on-month rate of house price inflation in November is the first sign that price pressures are coming off the boil again. Regardless, the bigger picture is that the recent acceleration in …
6th January 2015
The new homes market continues to be very subdued, with a further drop in sales in November pushing the stock of new homes up for the ninth month in a row. But a number of factors, including strong employment growth and loosening credit conditions, …
23rd December 2014
Ignore the usual suspects who will claim that the unexpected 6.1% m/m decline in existing home sales in November is a sign that the housing or wider economic recovery just fell off the rails. They didn't. Indeed, with employment growth accelerating and …
22nd December 2014
House prices have regained fresh upward momentum in recent months. But as existing homeowners and homebuilders respond to higher prices by increasing supply, price gains will stabilise at 4% per annum over the next few years. … The acceleration in house …
The latest homebuilding figures were a mixed bag, with starts declining in November but only because of an upward revision to October’s estimate. On balance, these data support our view that the outlook for homebuilding is becoming increasingly positive. …
16th December 2014
Over the past three years the surge in average house prices has dwarfed the rise in rents. However, over the next few years, those patterns look set to go into reverse, with rents likely to rise at an annual average rate of 5% or more, while house price …
11th December 2014
Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs that mortgage credit conditions are easing. That said, …
9th December 2014
The low level of mortgage interest rates, signs of an easing in credit conditions and steady gains in employment have yet to be reflected in the data for mortgage applications. But we are optimistic that lending will pick up next year. … Mortgage …
3rd December 2014
October’s CoreLogic index does not fundamentally alter the picture of moderating house price pressures. And with housing more or less fairly valued, and the cost of borrowing set to rise, a period in which prices move broadly in line with incomes now …
2nd December 2014
Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will continue. But with price growth likely to level off at …
1st December 2014
The modest increase in new home sales in October, which only occurred because September’s reading was itself revised downwards, is consistent with a subdued new homes market. Nevertheless, with credit conditions loosening, employment growth strong and …
26th November 2014
The strongest month-on-month increase in house prices in seven months in September is further evidence that, after the recent slowdown, the pace of house price growth is picking up again. But while a short-term acceleration is possible, the bigger picture …
25th November 2014
The sixth increase in seven months took existing home sales to within a whisker of their pre-taper high in October. Existing home sales are benefitting from the decent labour market recovery and the decline in mortgage interest rates, as well as continued …
20th November 2014
The decline in housing starts in October was entirely driven by a fall in the volatile multi-family component. With single-family starts, building permits and homebuilder confidence all rising, the outlook is becoming increasingly positive. … Housing …
19th November 2014
