Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
New home sales declined for the second month in a row in July, with a 1.7% m/m drop taking sales to a 10-month low. Housing demand is faltering as buyers have been put off by the lack of affordable inventory, and that is taking some of the heat out of …
23rd August 2018
The fourth month in a row of falling existing home sales has left them at a 2½ year low. On the supply side, a lack of affordable inventory is constraining sales. But demand is also falling back over concerns that prices are too high. Neither of those …
22nd August 2018
The lacklustre performance of housing starts seen since the start of year continued in July, with a marginal gain of under 1% m/m in both single and multifamily starts. Single-family starts are being held back by constraints on the supply side and …
16th August 2018
There are a couple of reasons to hope that the drop in lumber prices over the past couple of months will be a positive for the housing market. First, it should encourage builders to start work on the large number of homes that have been delayed as lumber …
15th August 2018
Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in mortgage lending standards, not affordability, are the key …
10th August 2018
Housing market activity has come off the boil, as rising interest rates, a lack of inventory and concerns that house prices are too high have all weighed on buying sentiment. Both new and existing home sales fell back in June, and mortgage applications …
9th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property, residential and commercial, is on course to cause trouble for the …
2nd August 2018
Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase fell back in July, continuing the recent run of easing demand. The drop in mortgage interest rates seen at the beginning of the month proved short-lived, and rates are once again on the rise. That …
1st August 2018
The May Case-Shiller house price index provided further evidence that the housing market is losing steam. The 0.4% m/m rise meant annual house price inflation held steady at 6.4%. High house prices and rising mortgage interest rates have led to weakening …
31st July 2018
The US homeownership rate was essentially unchanged in Q2 for the second consecutive quarter, confirming that the nascent recovery in the share of homeownership, which began in 2016, has stalled. Consistent with that, the rental vacancy rate fell back …
26th July 2018
Given the recent decline in home buyer sentiment, as well as the dip in existing home sales already reported, June’s fall in new home sales should not come as a surprise. That said the dip did more than simply reverse May’s rise, adding to the impression …
25th July 2018
According to the FHFA, the easing in the average pace of monthly house price gains was extended into May. The implication is that the recent drop in home sales and home buying sentiment appear to be taking their toll on house price pressures. … FHFA House …
24th July 2018
June’s drop in existing home sales means that activity levels in the first six months of this year were 2% lower than in the same period of 2017. Indeed, at 5.38m annualised, sales in June sat close to the centre of the 5.2m to 5.6m range in which they …
23rd July 2018
Alongside lot, labour and material shortages, builders are now having to contend with growing evidence that the sales environment is becoming more testing. While the strong labour market, and lack of existing homes for sale, argues against a sustained …
20th July 2018
Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded substantial declines in June. The fall of 12.3% m/m in total starts was the largest month-on-month drop since the end of 2016. Building permits were also subdued. Concerns about over-capacity may be …
18th July 2018
The share of Americans who point to high house prices as a reason not to buy looks elevated in relation to the level of real house prices and mortgage affordability. That may reflect memories of the financial crisis, when prices crashed by over 25%. That …
13th July 2018
The recent drop in home buying sentiment, partly driven by concerns that prices are too high, is now evident in lackluster mortgage applications for home purchase. Applications fell 0.4% m/m in June, and are unchanged over the year. Even with inventory …
11th July 2018
It is possible that the large number of new apartments entering the market over the past year has acted to increase the ‘natural’ vacancy rate. Uncertainty about achievable rents in new buildings means landlords have been willing to hold onto empty units …
6th July 2018
Demand for home purchase and refinancing both dropped back in June, as higher mortgage interest rates and inventory shortages weighed on housing market activity. With interest rates set to trend higher, and potential buyers increasingly concerned about …
5th July 2018
The rise in the number of homes for sale in California, to its highest level in a year, is not the good news it first appears. The increase is due to a drop in home sales, rather than a rise in listings. Instead of reflecting improved liquidity in the …
29th June 2018
The slowdown in annual house price growth to 6.4% on the Case-Shiller measure in April is in line with earlier data from the FHFA. In addition to record low levels of inventory, active housing demand is being held in check by rising mortgage interest …
26th June 2018
A decent 6.7% m/m rise in new home sales in May means the share of new single-family sales in total sales has reached a 10-year high. But that rise in sales has choked off what had been a steady rise in new home inventory, which is also coming under …
25th June 2018
Developments in the housing market continue to be dominated by record low levels of inventory. A scarcity of labour and high lumber prices are preventing builders from responding to that shortage. Single-family housing starts will therefore rise only …
22nd June 2018
The FHFA reported that house prices rose by a marginal 0.1% m/m in April, the second month in a row of small monthly gains. Even as inventory levels have stayed close to record lows, house price growth is being contained by subdued active housing demand. …
21st June 2018
Existing home sales dropped for the second month in a row in May, as record low levels of inventory have continued to constrain activity. With little chance of an improvement in the supply situation this year, sales are set to do little more than hold …
20th June 2018
Both single and multifamily housing starts rose in May, meaning total housing starts were up 20.3% compared to a year earlier, close to a two-year high. However, the building permit data show that single-family construction is still struggling to gain …
19th June 2018
We doubt the rise in mortgage demand from higher risk borrowers reported in the latest Fannie Mae survey will lead to a surge in mortgage lending. Cautious lenders and regulations mean that this market segment will remain small, even as more marginal …
14th June 2018
After eight years of stagnation, earnings growth finally looks set to accelerate. Household incomes have also received a boost from the tax cuts, which has helped raise rental growth expectations. Accordingly, landlords should now find it a little easier …
11th June 2018
The gradual decline in the number of multifamily units started for the rental sector went into reverse in the first quarter of 2018, with developers starting the most units since mid-2015. Rental demand is being supported by a lack of homes for sale, with …
7th June 2018
A 2.7% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase left this measure of active housing demand unchanged compared to this time last year. A rise in mortgage interest rates, to a seven-year high of 4.80%, partly explains that lacklustre performance. …
6th June 2018
House price expectations have risen to an eight-year high on some measures, which raises the risk of a dangerous upward spiral in price growth developing. However, tight mortgage lending standards, and household concerns that prices are already too high, …
30th May 2018
March’s strong gain in the Case-Shiller national house price index appears consistent with some recent evidence that house price expectations have begun to rise. But it is harder to reconcile with the steady decline in the share of buyers who think now is …
29th May 2018
Despite high homebuilder confidence, single-family housing starts have lost momentum since the start of the year. A combination of lot and labour shortages, and the high price of materials, is responsible for that disappointing performance. Of those …
25th May 2018
Signs that the inventory of existing homes for sale had stabilised have proved to be short-lived. Inventory levels reached a new low in April. With so few homes on the market it is not surprising that existing home sales fell by 2.5% m/m, and we doubt …
24th May 2018
New home sales declined by 1.5% m/m in April, and downward revisions to the previous three months’ readings show that sales have struggled to gain traction so far this year. But, with the inventory of new homes for sale at a nine-year high, and with so …
23rd May 2018
As expected, a reversal of the surge in multifamily starts seen in March contributed to a 3.7% m/m drop in total housing starts in April. More of a concern is the lack of a sustained recovery in single-family construction. Despite very tight market …
16th May 2018
Against our expectation for a slow recovery, housing equity withdrawal has instead fallen back over the past year. In large part that reflects subdued home sales which, in turn, are being constrained by a lack of inventory. Increased spending on home …
15th May 2018
Strong house price gains in Western cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and Denver have pushed prices significantly above their previous highs seen just prior to the crash of the mid-2000s. However, the cause of the run-up in values this time around, …
11th May 2018
The rise in mortgage interest rates has had contrasting impacts on refinancing and home purchase mortgage applications. While refinancing applications dropped close to a 10-year low, home purchase applications rose to within sight of a nine-year high. …
8th May 2018
The rise in mortgage rates to a seven-year high of 4.8% over April has had contrasting impacts on refinancing and home purchase applications. Refinancing applications fell, approaching a 10-year low, while home purchase applications jumped to within sight …
2nd May 2018
The number of households in the rental sector has seen year-on-year declines in each of the last four quarters. But an equivalent supply response, with some homes shifting to the homeowner sector and a fall in the share of homes started for rent, has kept …
1st May 2018
With the 10-year Treasury yield breaching 3% earlier this week, mortgage rates are set to trend higher. That will push refinancing activity down to 18-year lows by the end of the year. Purchase demand is far less sensitive to rate changes, and may even …
27th April 2018
Given the number of existing homes for sale recently dropped to a record low, it is no surprise that the homeowner vacancy rate fell to 1.5% in the first-quarter, the joint-lowest rate for 24 years. That has put a stop to what had been a gradual rise in …
26th April 2018
Substantial upward revisions to new home sales in January and February, coupled with a 4.0% m/m rise in March, means new sales now look to have made a decent start to the year. The relatively healthy inventory of new homes for sale explains why new sales …
24th April 2018
Annual house price growth on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures has been fairly stable since the start of the year. After dropping for the first time in 18-months in January, growth on the national Case-Shiller index returned to 6.3% in February. A …
Existing home sales increased for the second month in a row in March. But, at 1.1% m/m, the rise was modest and sales are still lower than at this time last year. A lack of inventory explains that lacklustre performance. Despite a small improvement over …
23rd April 2018
At first glance the 1.9% m/m rise in housing starts, and 2.5% m/m increase in building permits, suggests the gradual recovery in home construction continued into March. But, in fact, growth in both measures was entirely driven by the notoriously volatile …
17th April 2018
Fannie Mae’s announcement last August that it would accept mortgages with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50% triggered a sharp rise in the share of high DTI mortgages. But we doubt that change poses a risk to the housing market. Other lending …
16th April 2018
A divergence in rental vacancy rates over the past year, with single-family vacancies reaching a 21-year low as multifamily vacancies have risen, has meant rental growth for single-family homes has outpaced apartments for the past year. That reflects …
12th April 2018
