Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The apartment market is on track to recover over our five-year forecast, with new supply falling back sharply, while demand remains solid. However, the size and speed of recovery will differ widely by region. The largest vacancy rate declines – around …
7th April 2025
Overview – The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect transactions to remain depressed, reaching just 4.3m …
8th January 2025
Our apartment metro forecasts continue to show significant variation between metros, even within regions. For example, while we expect continued strong demand growth in the South – especially in Austin, Miami and Dallas – we also expect high volumes of …
23rd December 2024
Overview – We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back …
10th October 2024
Overview – We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that they will still be a muted 4.8 million even …
16th July 2024
Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted in response to falling apartment values and higher …
2nd July 2024
Note: We’ll be covering our views on residential market winners and losers in both the for-sale and rental markets in a Drop-In Tuesday 16th April 1100 EDT/1600 BST . Register here for the 20-minute session. We expect a surge in completions and a …
4th April 2024
Overview – Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ will continue to curb home moves. As a result, we only anticipate a trickle of new resale supply coming onto the market over the next few years. That will keep a lid on …
5th March 2024
We expect apartment markets to perform poorly over the next two years, with all our 17 metros seeing capital values lower at the end of 2025 than they are now. However, there will be substantial differentiation. At the top end, we think Houston apartment …
2nd January 2024
Overview – Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop below 6.0% before the end of the forecast, …
21st November 2023
We expect demand to be weakest in the six major markets, but new supply is also set to be low in those markets. Elsewhere, we think southern metros will continue to see stronger absorption, though Austin and Miami have large completions pipelines over the …
18th October 2023
Overview – With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters. While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have …
11th August 2023
The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist for the next few years thanks to the relatively high …
11th July 2023
Overview – Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and March, we expect to see further modest …
1st June 2023
We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an outright fall in several of the major markets as well …
12th April 2023
Overview – Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past standards, especially in the first half of …
10th February 2023
Click here to read the full report. We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of the markets with the …
29th December 2022
Overview – We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into a mild recession in 2023, sales and …
8th November 2022
We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform better than others. Rent prospects are strongest in the …
16th September 2022
Overview – Despite a reduction in our mortgage rate forecast, affordability is still set to be as stretched as it was during the mid-2000s housing boom. Alongside record-low homebuyer sentiment and a slowing economy, that means we have become more …
12th August 2022
Overview – Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this year and to see further increases in 2023. …
12th July 2022
Overview – Mortgage rates have risen faster than we originally anticipated and we now expect them to peak at 5.6% in mid-2023. That’s below the level of around 6% which we think risks tiggering a housing market correction, but higher interest rates mean …
29th April 2022
Overview – Following a surge last year, rental growth at the national level is set to slow over the next couple of years as demand falls back and affordability constraints bite. (See Focus. ) Alongside a gradual rise in yields, that will bring total …
7th April 2022
Overview – Mortgage rates are on the rise, and we expect the 30-year rate will increase to 4.0% by end-2022 and 4.5% by end-2023. While that only takes mortgage rates back to where they were in early 2019, house prices have risen 30% since then. With …
28th January 2022
Overview – Apartment markets in major coastal cities underperformed the national average in 2021, as they were more heavily impacted by lockdowns and the move of some households to cheaper, sunbelt cities. But as long as Omicron doesn’t throw a spanner in …
17th December 2021
Overview – Mortgage rates have risen to a six-month high and will increase further over the next couple of years. While inventory is set to remain tight, cutting the risk of an outright fall in house prices, that rise in interest rates coupled with tight …
28th October 2021
Overview – The apartment market is set for a stellar year. The reopening of cities is bringing vacancy rates down and pushing rents up, and strong investor demand has led to a sharp fall in yields. We expect national total returns of around 19% in 2021. …
1st October 2021
Overview – Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic to continue over the remainder of the year. …
15th July 2021
Overview – With cities reopening apartment demand will see a substantial rise this year, boosted by the arrival of households who delayed a move last year. Vacancy rates will fall back in all six major cities covered in this Outlook with those hit hardest …
29th June 2021
Overview – After a bumper second half of 2020, housing market activity will lose steam in 2021 as higher mortgage interest rates and record low inventory weigh on home sales. House price growth will also fall back, as recent strong gains in prices …
19th April 2021
Overview – The housing market boomed in the latter half of 2020, as record low mortgage rates, displacement due to COVID-19 and increased savings boosted home demand. But those drivers will ease in 2021 and, alongside worsening affordability and record …
23rd December 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and some movement out of cities have helped drive home sales to 13-year highs. But with inventory falling to record lows, mortgage lending standards tightening and unemployment elevated, …
16th October 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates have helped housing demand to recover swiftly from the shock of the coronavirus, with mortgage applications for home purchase recently hitting a 10-year high. Home sales have also jumped back, but a second wave of …
23rd July 2020
Overview – The disruption caused by the coronavirus will lead to unprecedented falls in housing market activity. We expect home sales will drop by 50% q/q in the second quarter, single-family housing starts will see the largest quarterly fall since …
21st April 2020
Overview – Mortgage interest rates have been close to 4% since October, and we expect they will stay at that level over the next couple of years. However, the support that will give to housing demand will be offset to some extent by tighter mortgage …
20th December 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates recently dropped to three-year lows, but mortgage applications for home purchase are more-or-less unchanged from where they were at the start of the year. A slowing economy, tighter mortgage lending standards and lack of …
4th October 2019
Overview – The sharp fall in mortgage interest rates seen since the start of the year has not spurred much of a recovery in housing market activity. Home sales and housing starts have more-or-less held their ground, and house price growth has been on a …
28th June 2019
