Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The Bank of England’s mortgage lending statistics for July showed a marginal rise in both the value and volume of mortgages approved. However, the bigger picture is still of subdued activity in the housing market. There is little chance of a marked …
31st August 2010
The Land Registry house price index highlights a clear North/South divide. But while London and the South have consistently outperformed over the past year, we doubt that house prices in these regions will be immune to the impact of tighter fiscal policy …
27th August 2010
The latest mortgage lending snapshot from the BBA suggests that growing pressure on household finances, rising fears about job security and still-tight lending criteria are depressing activity in the housing market. It is hard to see what might give a …
24th August 2010
As signs that the past year’s house price gains are going into reverse become more widespread, the number of active sellers in the housing market is likely to decline. But a fall in house price expectations and a further offsetting decline in buyer demand …
19th August 2010
Yesterday’s fall in asking prices reported by Rightmove was noticeably stronger than the traditional dip normally observed in August. Admittedly, despite their timely nature the data’s track record as a lead indicator of the other major house price …
17th August 2010
The recovery in buy-to-let (BTL) lending in the second quarter was noticeably stronger than in the wider mortgage market. But it will be a long time before BTL lending regains the market share it enjoyed in late 2007, if ever. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
12th August 2010
Mortgage arrears and possessions continued to improve in the second quarter of the year. But with tax increases and public sector spending cuts set to intensify the pressure on household incomes and trigger fresh rises in unemployment, it is too early to …
The dip in buyer enquiries since the turn of the year has begun to drag house prices lower. We expect the restricted level of mortgage credit, together with rising unemployment and the squeeze on household incomes to mean that house prices end the year …
10th August 2010
A second round of falls in house prices would not be without precedent. There are at least eight examples of double-dips in real house prices in the international data from the past 40 years. But while, on average, the second leg of those corrections …
5th August 2010
House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. … Halifax House Prices …
4th August 2010
The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride. … Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 …
3rd August 2010
The sheer scale of the fiscal squeeze means that consumer spending will struggle to rise in the next few years. … Spending will struggle to grow during fiscal squeeze (Q3 …
2nd August 2010
We believe that the downturn in the data in recent months marks the start of a new, weaker trend for the housing market. With a fresh contraction in lending likely in the coming months and a weak outlook for demand, recent house price falls are likely to …
The construction industry contributed 0.4 percentage points to the 1.1%q/q growth in GDP in the second quarter of 2010. What’s more, house-building appears to have contributed strongly to the growth in construction, suggesting that housing starts will …
30th July 2010
The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in house prices are unlikely to prove short-lived. … Mortgage …
29th July 2010
October’s rise in the Halifax house price index was widely expected, given the size of the previous month’s drop. Moreover, although far stronger than consensus estimates for a 0.6% rise, the underlying trend still points to accelerating house price …
Despite some upward revisions to the last few months of data and a marginal further rise in June, today’s Land Registry index adds to the emerging evidence that house prices may have reached a turning point. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
28th July 2010
June’s renewed decline in mortgage approvals highlights the lacklustre state of the mortgage market. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun.) …
23rd July 2010
On one measure at least, the amount of unsold stock on surveyors’ books is consistent with falling house prices. With sellers now seemingly outnumbering buyers, we expect that looser market conditions will mean falling prices in the remainder of 2010. … …
20th July 2010
Over the next 20 years, house price growth in the North West is likely to match the UK average closely. If anything, the North West may slightly outpace the UK. However, there will be considerable sub-regional differences. Manchester, and to a lesser …
19th July 2010
Since the previous Analyst our forecasts for housing transactions have been shaved, reflecting the weaker-than-expected data in recent months. However, our house price forecasts appear to be on track. We expect prices to end this year 5% lower and to drop …
14th July 2010
Market conditions are loosening, as the supply of properties for sale continues to increase and buyer numbers stall. Consistent with our forecast for a double-dip, surveyors now expect house prices to fall in the next three months. … RICS Housing Survey & …
13th July 2010
At the time of the 2015 election, we expect commercial property prices to be more or less unchanged from their current levels. Yet despite the low interest rate environment, the outlook for residential property is far weaker. We think that we are now in …
12th July 2010
The housing market data continued to send mixed messages last month. Activity measures remained subdued but did not typically weaken any further. House prices rose on some indices and fell on others. But with economic growth set to lose some momentum as …
2nd July 2010
The latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the supply of credit for commercial property is likely to remain restricted, but for residential borrowers it is likely to contract again. In light of this, a cautious view on the prospects for both house …
1st July 2010
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s house price forecasts seem to imply a structural shift in the sustainable house price to earnings ratio and a return to peak of the market mortgage servicing costs. We would not rule out some rise in the equilibrium …
30th June 2010
House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. … Nationwide House Prices …
The latest mortgage lending numbers from the Bank of England were little changed from last month, indicating a lending market that remains very subdued. … Mortgage Lending …
29th June 2010
The latest Land Registry Repeat Sales index brought further evidence that the increase in supply and the weakening of demand seen over the past few months is beginning to undermine house prices. Tight fiscal policy and the resulting pressures on household …
28th June 2010
The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to suggest that the Bank remains very concerned about the …
25th June 2010
Mortgage lending figures from the BBA ticked up in May, but are still indicative of a weak mortgage market. The numbers suggest that the latest falls in consumer confidence and the considerable uncertainty over the outlook for wholesale mortgage financing …
23rd June 2010
This was a Budget with two faces. The total discretionary tightening will build up to 8% of GDP per annum by 2015-16, larger than Canada’s in the 1990s, but smaller than Sweden’s and Finland’s. … Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but …
22nd June 2010
Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today was, if anything, tougher than had been anticipated. And …
The latest FSA lending data continue the trend of the previous two quarters with arrears and possessions improving but mortgage lending remaining very tight. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
Claims that households have begun to step up the rate at which they are paying back their mortgages do not look well founded. Rather, over the past year or so, repayments of mortgage principal have been far lower than we would have expected given the cuts …
18th June 2010
Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price movements is mixed, with consumers’ expectations in …
16th June 2010
The rise in the RICS past prices balance is at odds with other evidence that the upswing in prices has lost momentum, or even begun to go into reverse. But the forward-looking balances in today's survey suggest that the rise will be short-lived. … RICS …
15th June 2010
Today brought fresh evidence that not only does the past year’s house price bounce appear to have run its course but it now seems to be moving into reverse. Of course, all that could yet change. But, with the June 22nd Budget only likely to put a further …
11th June 2010
In view of the looming June Budget, the economic recovery remains worryingly dependent on the inventory cycle and government spending. The prospect of tighter fiscal policy and job losses in the public and private sectors implies that economic growth will …
7th June 2010
The contradictory messages offered by the Halifax and Nationwide house price data make it almost impossible to draw clear conclusions about the health of the market. But, at the very least, May’s drop in the Halifax index highlights the fragility of the …
4th June 2010
It is still early days, but our prediction last month that April would be the high water mark for house price inflation appears to have been borne out. For now, house prices continue to rise, but easing supply shortages, overvaluation and, of course, the …
3rd June 2010
The latest rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase cannot disguise the bigger picture of a lending market that is depressed. The subdued picture for net lending might also mean that anyone hoping for a further easing in mortgage credit conditions …
2nd June 2010
On the face of it, the supply shortages which characterised the owner occupier market last year are in danger of becoming a feature of the private rental market. While this could provide a boost for rents, we think the weakness of the wider economy will …
26th May 2010
April’s soft mortgage lending data add weight to the idea that last year’s upturn in approvals overstated the underlying health of the housing market. Moreover, since the looming fiscal austerity measures will keep a lid on mortgage demand while the …
Despite a 73% rise in private housing starts over the past year, the bigger picture is that housebuilding activity in England remains extremely subdued and that is unlikely to change rapidly. Indeed, there are several reasons to believe that a return to …
20th May 2010
It is too soon to be sure whether the recent softness in some London housing market indicators are simply noise in an otherwise healthy trend or whether they are a sign that a turning point is at hand. However, the fact that affordability and valuation …
19th May 2010
The modest improvement in the labour market seen in the final months of last year appears to have helped reduce further the number of mortgage possessions and cases of mortgage arrears. As yet, there are few signs that the renewed weakness in labour …
13th May 2010
Recent press reports have suggested that lenders are increasingly considering targeting a return to higher margin BTL lending. Today’s data suggest that such considerations have yet to deliver any tangible benefits to aspiring investors on the ground. … …
The softer tone evident in most of the RICS housing market balances since the turn of the year was partially reversed in April. It will be at least another month or two, however, before we know whether the market has finally shaken off its New Year …
11th May 2010
News that the Halifax house price index suffered a marginal fall in April is a reminder that the recovery in house prices has not had a firm economic foundation. With the acute supply shortages that characterised the market last year now easing, and the …
7th May 2010
