Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
After falling fairly steadily through 2010, the latest rise suggests that mortgage approvals for house purchase may be finding a floor. But the bigger picture is that, with approvals for house purchase extremely subdued, the mortgage market remains a drag …
23rd March 2011
The latest house price expectations surveys remain negative, but are not signalling an adjustment on anything like the scale seen in 2008-09. Nevertheless, their record in anticipating house price movements is mixed. The fact that wider measures of …
21st March 2011
Institutional investment in the private rented sector will not increase without a significant fall in house prices and continued strong demand from tenants. Even then, policy changes are required, but cannot be guaranteed. … Will institutional investment …
17th March 2011
The latest FSA mortgage lending statistics suggest that credit criteria tightened marginally in the fourth quarter. A lack of lending at higher loan-to-value ratios will continue to drag on activity and prices this year. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
15th March 2011
Assessed over a two year period, Bank Rate would have to rise to at least 2.75% to make it pay to fix at current mortgage interest rates. However, market expectations are for Bank Rate to rise to 2.25% in two years time, while we continue to doubt that …
14th March 2011
Recent encouraging results from two of the major house-builders are unlikely to signal that the housing market has turned a corner, not least because they are backward-looking. And we can find little in house-builders’ comments to dissuade us that the …
9th March 2011
House prices fell a little further in February and activity levels remained static at depressed levels. Consistent with that, the BRC survey brought further evidence that the squeeze on household incomes, as well as rising uncertainty over job security …
8th March 2011
Last month’s housing market news-flow may have been slightly more positive than of late, but it didn’t change the underlying picture of a market that remains severely depressed. And if unemployment rises by as much as we expect this year, a further …
4th March 2011
The latest decline in the Halifax house price index underlines that the pressures weighing on prices are still very much with us. If, as we expect, these pressures build this year – for example, if unemployment rises sharply – then significant house price …
Strong demand and another fall in supply meant that rents continued their upward trend in the three months to January. But that trend is likely to moderate during 2011 as the worsening sales environment forces more accidental landlords into the rented …
3rd March 2011
This morning’s data paints a picture of a housing market that is struggling for direction. But while the pace of any further falls is hard to judge, with mortgage demand so low, February’s modest rise in the Nationwide house price index is unlikely to be …
1st March 2011
The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are only set to build through 2011. … Land Registry Repeat …
28th February 2011
The low level of forced selling is almost certainly the main reason why house prices are currently falling more slowly that the ultra-low levels of housing market activity would suggest. However, we stand by our view that the renewed downturn in the …
24th February 2011
The marginal rise in total mortgage lending in January is not particularly encouraging, given that its makes up only one-quarter of the previous month’s fall. Weak demand and hefty refinancing requirements will keep lending subdued for the rest of this …
23rd February 2011
We do not agree with research published recently in the Daily Telegraph suggesting that mortgage affordability is at near-record levels. By looking at interest payments only, the Lombard Street Research affordability index significantly underestimates the …
17th February 2011
In principle, lenders appear to have scope to absorb any rise in Bank Rate within their already high margins. Yet lenders are now raising the cost of some mortgages in response to higher swap rates. That suggests that if Bank Rate does rise later this …
15th February 2011
The Chancellor is upping the pressure on banks to lend more. But with banks’ funding problems really coming home to roost this year, he might soon feel like he is banging his head against a brick wall. … Funding problems to keep lid on bank …
14th February 2011
Buy-to-let (BTL) lending ended 2010 on a comparatively strong note. But the data were not quite as strong as they seem at first sight. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
10th February 2011
While the number of arrears and possessions cases fell in the fourth quarter, the ongoing squeeze on household incomes from tax rises and public spending cuts, as well as the likelihood of a further rise in unemployment, mean that the outlook still hangs …
In the next two to three years, central London house prices will be more resilient than the wider market. But we still expect them to give up ground. It is plausible that central London house prices will fall by 10% from peak-to-trough, about half the …
9th February 2011
Unlike consumer spending, the housing market began the year on a weak footing. Indeed, the drop in completed sales and another drop in buyer enquiries means that January’s improvement in the RICS past prices balance may soon be reversed. … RICS Housing …
8th February 2011
The bounce in house prices in January is unlikely to signal the start of a rising trend. With the economic fundamentals of the housing market still very weak, the most likely scenario is for house prices to end the year significantly below where they …
4th February 2011
There was little, if any, positive news from the housing market this month. With confidence in the recovery on the wane, mortgage credit conditions tight and houses still overvalued, we find it hard to envisage an improvement in sentiment towards the …
3rd February 2011
Falling disposable incomes will soon bring the consumer recovery to an end. We still expect spending to start falling again in real terms. … A toxic mix for …
2nd February 2011
The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in house prices are unlikely to prove short-lived. … …
1st February 2011
The latest data from the Land Registry are further evidence of the anaemic state of the housing market. Rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are likely to mean that transaction levels remain low and house prices continue to fall. … Land …
31st January 2011
Theoretically at least, the OECD’s recent proposal to replace stamp duty with an annual tax on property could improve labour market mobility and discourage excessive consumption of housing. But, regardless of its theoretical merits, we find it hard to …
28th January 2011
Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be overwhelmed by rising unemployment, weak house price …
The continued decline in mortgage activity in December capped off a weak year for lending to the housing market. The prospect of sluggish economic growth and subdued demand means that 2011 is unlikely to see a significant improvement. … BBA Mortgage …
26th January 2011
If we are right that unemployment will rise markedly over the next two years, the rates of arrears and possessions will increase. However, three features of the UK’s mortgage market should keep the rates of both arrears and possessions below the highs …
19th January 2011
Activity and house prices both softened in December. Although the drop in sales instructions was particularly striking, it does not necessarily follow that supply shortages will underpin house prices this year. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices …
18th January 2011
If our unemployment forecasts are correct, the rise in the number of tenants who are struggling to meet their rents may be the start of a growing trend. At the very least these figures support our view that the recent bounce in rents may now be on its …
12th January 2011
We have raised our forecast of GDP growth for 2011 from 1% to 1.5%, but overall the economy will lose momentum and the labour market will weaken. Thus, the implications for the housing market are limited. We have not changed our view that recent house …
11th January 2011
According to the Halifax, house prices recorded a modest decline in the year to December 2010. With the pressures on house prices still building, we anticipate that prices will fall considerably further into the red this year. … Halifax House Prices …
10th January 2011
Today’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that in both the housing and commercial property markets lenders have continued slowly to improve the volume of credit that is available, if not its terms. However, demand for finance appears to be faltering, …
6th January 2011
There have been tentative signs that prospective vendors are being deterred from bringing their properties to the market by renewed price falls. But even if supply contracts further, a combination of rising unemployment, tight credit conditions and weak …
5th January 2011
The Bank of England’s measure of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for first time in seven months in November. However, mortgage lending remains incredibly low by historical standards. This will continue to weigh on house prices in 2011. … …
4th January 2011
The decline in mortgage market activity continued in November. Approvals for house purchase dropped to their lowest level for twenty months. With lenders’ funding issues set to persist, if not intensify, there is little prospect of a mortgage market …
23rd December 2010
We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a corner. … A bumpy road to …
22nd December 2010
Claims that the FSA’s responsible lending proposals will do lasting damage to the size and structure of the mortgage market assume that the historically high gap between house prices and incomes is here to stay. These claims seem overstated to us. … The …
Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise to count on inflation-beating house price growth in …
16th December 2010
Today’s FSA lending data confirm that mortgage lending criteria remained very tight in the third quarter. And while arrears and possessions improved as expected, the full impact of public sector job losses has yet to be felt. … FSA Mortgage Lending …
14th December 2010
Uncertainty stemming from the impact of the public sector spending cuts on the labour market, combined with the continued restrictions on mortgage supply, is taking its toll on the housing market. Two surveys reported further house price falls this …
The increased share of first-time buyers on repayment mortgages should be welcomed. The high level of interest-only lending during the boom years contributed to the unsustainable gap that opened up between house prices and earnings. It also left a vast …
10th December 2010
The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls will be. … Halifax House Prices …
9th December 2010
Most measures of housing market activity worsened last month. Given that economic growth is likely to be sluggish and a fresh rise in unemployment is on the cards, we do not expect activity levels to improve significantly next year. That, combined with …
6th December 2010
Strong tenant demand and a shortage of property for rent combined to push residential rents up for the third consecutive quarter. Yet the lack of buyer demand, growing expectations for further house price falls and the lack of credit all suggest that …
1st December 2010
The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls will be. … Nationwide House Prices …
The sixth consecutive monthly fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase underlines the message that the mortgage market is severely depressed. We expect it to remain that way throughout 2011. … Mortgage Lending …
29th November 2010
