Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Claims that the FSA’s responsible lending proposals will do lasting damage to the size and structure of the mortgage market assume that the historically high gap between house prices and incomes is here to stay. These claims seem overstated to us. … The …
22nd December 2010
Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise to count on inflation-beating house price growth in …
16th December 2010
Today’s FSA lending data confirm that mortgage lending criteria remained very tight in the third quarter. And while arrears and possessions improved as expected, the full impact of public sector job losses has yet to be felt. … FSA Mortgage Lending …
14th December 2010
Uncertainty stemming from the impact of the public sector spending cuts on the labour market, combined with the continued restrictions on mortgage supply, is taking its toll on the housing market. Two surveys reported further house price falls this …
The increased share of first-time buyers on repayment mortgages should be welcomed. The high level of interest-only lending during the boom years contributed to the unsustainable gap that opened up between house prices and earnings. It also left a vast …
10th December 2010
The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls will be. … Halifax House Prices …
9th December 2010
Most measures of housing market activity worsened last month. Given that economic growth is likely to be sluggish and a fresh rise in unemployment is on the cards, we do not expect activity levels to improve significantly next year. That, combined with …
6th December 2010
Strong tenant demand and a shortage of property for rent combined to push residential rents up for the third consecutive quarter. Yet the lack of buyer demand, growing expectations for further house price falls and the lack of credit all suggest that …
1st December 2010
The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls will be. … Nationwide House Prices …
The sixth consecutive monthly fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase underlines the message that the mortgage market is severely depressed. We expect it to remain that way throughout 2011. … Mortgage Lending …
29th November 2010
The second consecutive monthly drop in the Land Registry measure of house prices is further evidence that the devaluation is becoming more embedded. The fact that house prices are still overvalued across a range of measures, combined with the poor outlook …
26th November 2010
Over the next three to five years, we think that the most likely scenario is that the private rented sector (PRS) continues to expand. By 2015, it is plausible that 16% or even 17% of households will live in privately rented accommodation, up from 14% at …
24th November 2010
This morning’s marginal rise in the total number of mortgages approved in October is not particularly encouraging, given that approvals for house purchase are still falling. With both lenders and borrowers still facing significant challenges, a recovery …
23rd November 2010
The fall in dwelling starts in Q3 may well be a sign that the recovery in house-building has run out of steam. If so, it raises questions about the durability of the wider economic recovery and, on balance, is another reason to be concerned about the …
18th November 2010
Detached house prices will prove to be more resilient than other types of residential property in the next two to three years. Higher earners, who disproportionately demand this most expensive type of residential property, will be less affected by tight …
17th November 2010
The second fall in the government’s measure of house prices in almost a year and a half suggests that the recent weakness picked up by the more timely indices is finally showing through in house prices at the completion stage. … CLG House Prices …
16th November 2010
Lending to the buy-to-let sector noticeably outperformed the wider market in the third quarter. But there is reason to expect lending to the sector to weaken soon. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
11th November 2010
The continued fall in the numbers of arrears and possessions in the third quarter is encouraging. But figures showing an increase in possession orders being sought and awarded may mean that the improving trend will soon come to an end. … Mortgage Arrears …
The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence, if any were needed, that the house price outlook is weak. Most of the activity indicators deteriorated further in October and surveyors’ house price expectations remained firmly in negative …
9th November 2010
A new mortgage market survey from the charted surveyors e.surv suggests that mortgage lending volumes and average loan-to-value ratios fell further in October. While the survey has yet to be tested against hard data from the BBA or Bank of England, …
5th November 2010
The housing market data became increasingly negative last month. The stock of unsold properties on the market expanded once again and mortgage market activity remains extremely depressed. Most of the house price indices are pointing to a weakening house …
4th November 2010
October’s rise in the Halifax house price index was widely expected, given the size of the previous month’s drop. Moreover, although far stronger than consensus estimates for a 0.6% rise, the underlying trend still points to accelerating house price …
We continue to think that the biggest fiscal squeeze in decades will bring the consumer recovery to a sharp halt. … Consumer spending heading for a double dip (Q4 …
1st November 2010
The latest small fall in mortgage approvals reinforces the picture of a severely depressed lending market. We do not expect mortgage lending to recover significantly next year. … Mortgage Lending …
29th October 2010
The latest housing market activity measures look very weak. For now, however, this does not seem to have passed through to sustained falls in house prices. But with the fiscal consolidation set to put considerable strain on the labour market and economic …
28th October 2010
The Nationwide house price index fell for the third time in four months in October. As such, the data suggest that the key question facing the market is no longer “Will house prices fall?” but rather ”How far will prices fall?” … Nationwide House Prices …
The most recent lending data from the BBA showed that the contraction in mortgage lending continued in September. With confidence in the outlook for the housing market still very weak, among lenders as well as consumers, we expect the mortgage drought to …
25th October 2010
Intuitively, one might expect the high population density and apparent structural undersupply of housing in the UK to mean that we have historically spent a higher proportion of our earnings on mortgages than other major economies. In fact our analysis …
21st October 2010
Today’s Spending Review was never going to be good for the housing sector. The target for 150,000 new affordable homes to be built over the next four years represents a cut of almost 30% in affordable housebuilding from current levels, which must be bad …
20th October 2010
The combination of a fading economic recovery, renewed rises in unemployment and a continued shortage of mortgage credit all suggest that there is little prospect of a meaningful recovery in housing market activity levels in the next year or so. The …
18th October 2010
While mortgage credit conditions are improving for the most credit-worthy borrowers, secured lending criteria remain exceptionally tight for the broader market. … What is happening to mortgage credit …
13th October 2010
There was some better news in September’s RICS housing market survey, but not much as rising new instructions and a lack of buyers combined to push both house prices and house price expectations lower. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices …
12th October 2010
Companies may weather the coming fiscal storm rather better than households and the public sector. But they certainly won’t survive entirely unscathed. … How will companies weather the fiscal storm? (Q4 …
11th October 2010
The hefty drop in the Halifax measure of house prices adds weight to the view that house price weakness is far from over. To our minds, weak housing market activity indicators mean that further falls in house prices are likely. … Halifax House Prices …
7th October 2010
Affordable house-building faces significant headwinds. As well as problems of economic viability, the fiscal squeeze is already weighing on starts in the affordable housing sector. These challenges are likely to intensify for the foreseeable future. …
6th October 2010
The Bank of England’s latest survey suggested that while credit conditions are continuing to thaw, the process remains very gradual. We do not expect lending growth to pick up pace any time soon. … Credit Conditions Survey …
30th September 2010
House prices were more or less stable in September. Although it may appear that prices are stagnating at the moment, the renewed falls in mortgage market activity suggest that further declines in prices are on their way. … Nationwide House Prices …
The latest mortgage lending statistics from the Bank of England show that mortgage market activity weakened once again in August. Declining buyer demand means that approvals could drop even further from here. … Mortgage Lending …
29th September 2010
Coming after several recent reports of renewed falls in house prices, the latest rise in the Land Registry Repeat Sales Index only serves to highlight the uncertainty around the housing market at the moment. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
28th September 2010
The August lending data from the BBA was always likely to add to the picture of a subdued mortgage market. But the significant fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase only adds to the evidence that last years’ housing market recovery is unwinding. … …
23rd September 2010
Recent press comment that lenders are profiteering from the large spreads between mortgage interest rates and Bank Rate may be further evidence of the low esteem in which the financial services sector is now held. But it misses two key points. First, …
22nd September 2010
The recent slump in first-time buyers’ share of the mortgage market is a worrying sign of fresh weakness in the first rung of the housing market. What’s more, high unemployment among the under- 35s means that it will take more than an improvement in …
16th September 2010
FSA lending data released late this morning will do little to lift the cloud hanging over the housing market. While arrears and possessions improved again, there were some signs that credit conditions tightened further. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
14th September 2010
Much of the recent housing market data has offered conflicting signals. But the latest RICS housing market survey presents an unambiguously weak picture of both housing market activity and house prices. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices …
The latest rise in the Halifax measure of house prices does little to settle the debate about the house price outlook. But the fact that house prices continue to fall on a quarterly basis seems consistent with our forecast of considerable weakness in …
8th September 2010
Recent press reports that some major mortgage lenders are further restricting the availability of interest-only mortgages are a fresh sign that credit conditions are tightening. … What is the interest-only mortgage clampdown telling …
7th September 2010
GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up to a healthy-looking 1.2%q/q. But closer inspection reveals the recovery to be worryingly dependent on restocking. Once the process of inventory building is complete, the strong pace of growth will not be …
2nd September 2010
With the continued rationing of credit keeping many would-be buyers in rented accommodation and the supply of rental properties declining as accidental landlords sell up, at first glance the outlook seems positive for rents. But weak economic prospects …
31st August 2010
