Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
June’s slump in mortgage approvals may well have been exaggerated by the Diamond Jubilee celebrations at the start of the month. Even so, with approvals at their lowest level since January 2009, it seems clear that conditions in the mortgage market have …
24th July 2012
The recent outperformance by new-build house prices reflects two factors. First, the increasing use of sales incentives by housebuilders, and second, catch-up growth following a period of underperformance during the housing crash. As the former are price …
20th July 2012
Contrary to popular perception, the current divergence between house price inflation in different parts of the country is neither new, nor abnormally high. It is possible that, in time, the resilience of house prices in the South could help to stabilise …
17th July 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risks from the euro-zone …
12th July 2012
The past quarter brought no evidence of a stronger economic recovery, an easing in credit conditions or any resolution to the euro-zone crisis. Therefore, with households cautious, housing market activity is unlikely to improve. Indeed, signs of a renewed …
11th July 2012
The further deterioration in housing market demand in June was met with a broadly offsetting decline in supply. Nevertheless, a growing proportion of surveyors are reporting that house prices are falling. … RICS Housing Market Survey …
10th July 2012
There was nothing in the past month’s data to change our view that the UK housing market will experience a long, drawn-out correction over the next few years. But with few signs that the euro-zone crisis is abating and credit conditions tightening again, …
5th July 2012
The 1%m/m rise in the Halifax index in June does little to alter the underlying trend which shows that house prices are grinding lower, albeit only slowly. … Halifax House Prices …
Prices in London’s prime property markets, especially residential, look very vulnerable to a major financial market shock, or anything that might undermine investors’ desire to use London property as a safe haven. Yet, if we are right, that the euro-zone …
4th July 2012
May’s decline in mortgage approvals was surely related to the fact that lenders are once again reducing the availability of mortgage credit. Against a backdrop of renewed recession in the UK and the escalating crisis in the euro-zone, mortgage approvals …
3rd July 2012
The North/South house price split widened further in May. On an annual comparison, house prices rose strongly in London and there were smaller gains in the East and South East. Elsewhere, house price inflation was negative. … Land Registry Repeat Sales …
2nd July 2012
The availability of credit in both the residential and commercial property markets fell in Q2. And because of tight wholesale funding conditions, surely related to problems in the euro-zone, lenders do not envisage any near-term loosening of credit …
28th June 2012
On its own, the latest modest drop in the Nationwide house price index is not hugely significant. But since the turn of the year, the picture of flat house prices seems to have given way to a new downward trend, consistent with the fact that the economy …
May’s mortgage lending data were unambiguously weak and offered further grounds for concern about the impact that the escalating euro-zone crisis is having on both UK confidence and credit conditions. … BBA Mortgage Lending …
27th June 2012
Since the turn of the year, the average value of new mortgages being approved has jumped by 10%. Unfortunately, that rise is more likely to be evidence that credit conditions are deteriorating than a sign of growing confidence among would-be homebuyers. …
21st June 2012
Since mid-2006, successive upward and downward moves in house prices have almost exactly cancelled each other out. With house prices still expensive and earnings rising only slowly, there is a growing chance that by 2016, for the first time ever, UK house …
14th June 2012
The recent, modest improvement in sales instructions and new buyer enquiries seemed to grind to a halt in May. Add in a drop in both agreed and completed sales and the main message from May’s RICS Housing Market Survey seems to be that the market is …
12th June 2012
The small rise in the Halifax house price index for May seems to be in keeping with other evidence that house prices are stuck in a rut, at least at the national level. … Halifax House Prices …
7th June 2012
With households battling falling real wages, tighter credit conditions and modest rises in mortgage interest rates, there seems little prospect of a return to more normal levels of activity in the housing market. Indeed, the big risk facing the market is …
6th June 2012
Today’s data from the Nationwide show that house prices continue to tread water. In terms of the outlook, however, downside risks, such as further falls in GDP, dominate the upside. We continue to expect weaker house price data in the second half of the …
31st May 2012
The Bank of England measure of mortgage approvals for April does nothing to change the picture of a depressed mortgage market. With escalating tensions in the euro-zone likely to curb further the appetites of both borrowers and lenders, it is hard to see …
30th May 2012
The Land Registry repeat sales index of average house prices edged lower for the second consecutive month in April. But for now the renewed signs of weakness are more evident in the North of England and the Midlands than the South. … Land Registry …
29th May 2012
The growth of tenant demand continued to ease at the start of 2012, but not by enough to slow the modest upward path of rents. Nevertheless, falling real pay points to rental value growth slowing again later this year. … RICS Lettings Survey …
25th May 2012
Fears of further rises in mortgage interest rates appear to have prompted a rise in the number of households seeking to remortgage in May. But those same fears are doubtless contributing to the low level of demand for house purchase approvals, which are …
24th May 2012
Last night’s Evening Standard headline, “House prices fall in London”, may have stretched the truth. Yet it does appear as though the pace of house price growth in London is at least beginning to slow. Unlike in the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, however, this …
23rd May 2012
It is easy to turn the Greek fiscal crisis into a scapegoat for any piece of bad news. But it does seem plausible that, by triggering a rise in mortgage interest rates and tighter credit conditions, the euro-zone crisis may help to explain the first …
17th May 2012
Despite making the headlines in recent months, the impact of rising mortgage interest rates on affordability has so far been relatively modest. But with the economy back in recession and renewed fears of a euro-zone break-up sharply increasing tensions in …
15th May 2012
Rising real pay should kick-start a slow recovery in consumer spending next year. But first further falls in spending could lie ahead. … Recovery in sight, but more pain to come …
14th May 2012
The first fall in new buy-to-let mortgage volumes in five quarters suggests that the recession is taking its toll on landlords. Buy-to-let lending may well contract further later this year, although that will not stop the sector from continuing to …
10th May 2012
The latest rise in the number of households with mortgage arrears equivalent to at least 10% of their outstanding mortgage balance underlines how important lender forbearance has been in limiting the downward pressure on house prices. … Mortgage Arrears …
Demand in the new build sector has recently been stronger than for the market as a whole. This could be the first sign that buyer sentiment is improving. But it seems more likely that the data simply confirm that large numbers of buyers remain hugely …
9th May 2012
The RICS Survey for April suggests that, in the early stages of the second quarter, most measures of housing market activity and pricing pressures softened from an already weak starting point. … RICS Housing Market Survey …
8th May 2012
The big picture of depressed demand, fragile confidence and an underlying house price trend which is, at best, flat, was little changed this month. But news that the economy has fallen back into recession, that credit standards are tightening and that …
4th May 2012
April’s slump in the Halifax house price index must be taken with a large pinch of salt. The underlying trend in house prices is soft, and will almost certainly soften further. But, for now, it is nothing like as weak as last month’s sharp drop in prices …
The underlying trend in house prices has softened notably in the past five months. That seems consistent with reports that mortgage credit conditions are tightening and that the economy is now back in recession. … Nationwide House Prices …
3rd May 2012
The post-stamp duty holiday downturn in mortgage approvals for new house purchase may have come to an end in March. But we are doubtful that mortgage lending will now mount a sustained recovery. … Mortgage Lending …
2nd May 2012
March’s drop was not enough to prevent average house prices in England and Wales from recording a modest rise during the first quarter. But with the economy seemingly now back in recession and mortgage interest rates edging up, that stronger-than-expected …
1st May 2012
March’s drop in mortgage approvals gives further weight to the idea that housing demand at the turn of the year was artificially boosted by the stamp duty holiday. If extended, March’s rise in consumer confidence would offer hope of a revival. But that …
26th April 2012
Every recession in the UK of the past half century has been accompanied by real house price falls. But unlike many episodes in the past, with inflation low by historical standards, there is a good chance that a decline in real house prices over the next …
25th April 2012
On balance, April’s rise in asking prices does not appear to be good news for the housing market. For a start, to our minds it further reduces the chances that activity will recover any time soon. It also arguably lends some support to the idea that …
19th April 2012
Falling economic output, rising unemployment and fragile consumer confidence will all do their bit to undermine house prices this year. But while housing is still overvalued, low interest rates and widespread lender forbearance mean that a long, gradual …
11th April 2012
Surveyors are reporting that supply and demand are in balance and that the pace of house price falls is moderating. Yet once the temporary boost to housing activity from the stamp duty holiday fades, sales and prices may weaken again. … RICS Housing …
10th April 2012
The sharp rise in the Halifax house price index in March simply reverses the dip seen since last July. Therefore, it does little to alter the picture of a housing market that remains very weak. … Halifax House Prices …
4th April 2012
Given that the stamp duty-driven boost to activity seems to have had little material impact on house prices, its reversal is not obviously a cause for concern. But the same cannot be said of the latest credit conditions survey which showed that mortgage …
3rd April 2012
February’s sharp drop in mortgage approvals was no doubt partly driven by the end of the stamp duty holiday last weekend. But the fact that banks tightened credit scoring criteria in the first quarter also helps to explain the fall. The latter suggests …
29th March 2012
The Nationwide house price index recorded its largest drop in two years in March, suggesting that our forecast of a 5% drop during 2012 remains on track. … Nationwide House Prices …
There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro-zone recession. But once another tough year or two have …
28th March 2012
Today’s Land Registry data highlight both the strength of house prices in London as well as their weakness in the North East. That divergence might well increase further this year, but we remain sceptical of arguments that house prices in the South have …
23rd March 2012
February’s drop in mortgage approvals is likely to reflect a combination of factors - the looming end of the stamp duty holiday, weak consumer confidence and, potentially, a more cautious mood among lenders. It does not bode well for the success of the …
The new higher rate of stamp duty for £2m-plus properties, as well as a clampdown on avoidance schemes, is likely to dampen activity at the top end of the London housing market. But we doubt that the effect will be large, meaning that the rise in stamp …
21st March 2012
