Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The RICS reported another strong rise in new buyer enquires in September, even before today’s launch of the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee. But with interest rates on the first guaranteed mortgage products to be announced looking expensive, and with …
8th October 2013
The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing market is one of them. In fact, in this …
7th October 2013
Fears that another house price boom is on the way risk becoming self-fulfilling, as buyers rush into the market and sellers stay away in anticipation of future price gains. But demand still faces several constraints – real earnings are falling, banks are …
3rd October 2013
House prices rose further in September according to the Halifax, driven up by a release of some pent-up housing demand. The mortgage guarantee aspect of Help to Buy may push prices up further, but we doubt it will be as successful as some fear, and a …
Another steady rise in mortgage approvals indicates a housing market that is gradually recovering. But the growth in lending is likely to remain modest, despite attempts by the Government to supercharge the recovery. … Mortgage Lending (Aug. …
30th September 2013
The Land Registry house price index recorded a surprisingly weak 0.1% monthly rise in August, setting it apart from other, stronger measures. But it confirmed that London, where house price inflation reached 7.1%, is very still much the outlier. … Land …
27th September 2013
With conditions in the housing market very tight, September saw another strong rise in prices of 0.9%. But the good news is that, in response to growing concerns about the pace of these gains, the Chancellor has given the Bank of England more powers to …
Despite extensive media coverage, outside of central London there is little evidence of a house price boom, and there has been no increase in the stock of mortgage debt. Therefore, there seems little chance that the Financial Policy Committee will act to …
25th September 2013
The number of mortgages approved by banks increased again in August. But the momentum in mortgage lending growth appears to be fading, and there is scant evidence that a renewed secured credit boom is about to take-off. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug. …
24th September 2013
The sharp rise in swap rates in recent months has raised concerns that fixed mortgage rates will now follow. But while lenders will still be keen to maintain a healthy margin on any new lending, some banks are now looking to increase market share. That …
20th September 2013
The ONS house price index, which shows that prices in England have returned to pre-crisis highs, has made plenty of headlines today. But compared to other indices, the ONS measure places greater weight on higher valued properties and developments in …
18th September 2013
A boom in house prices would certainly not be sustainable, and the authorities should take action to prevent this. But the Bank of England already has new tools to prevent any unwarranted rise in house prices, and these should be tested before a rigid …
13th September 2013
There was a further slight uptick in mortgage approvals in September, but it would be premature to view this as the start of a sustained recovery in the housing market. The improvement was modest, and banks show no desire to materially increase their …
12th September 2013
Business cycles in advanced economies have been exceptionally closely aligned in recent years because of the global financial crisis, but they are likely to become less so in future. Although a global recovery is now under way, we doubt that the rising …
11th September 2013
A robust year-on-year rise in gross mortgage lending during the second quarter of 2013 provides further evidence that the mortgage market is returning to life. But first-time buyers without a large deposit, or willing to buy a new home via Help to Buy, …
10th September 2013
Another strong rise in the demand for homes, coupled with a lagging response on properties being put up for sale, has led to a rise in house prices. But the conditions for a sustainable rise in first-time buyer numbers are not in place, and future price …
Past housing market upswings have all coincided with above-average rates of consumer spending growth. But it is easy to overstate the strength of the direct linkages between the two. Therefore, unless we have under-estimated the likely strength of income …
9th September 2013
House prices rose further in August according to the Halifax, as demand for homes outstripped the number being put up for sale. But that imbalance is likely to subside gradually, which will reduce the upwards pressure on prices. … Halifax House Prices …
6th September 2013
The region is restructuring, but not by enough to allow it to outperform the UK in the years ahead. We forecast 1.3% growth this year and 2% in 2014, matching the UK, but with longer run rates about 1% below the UK. So only modest employment rises after …
5th September 2013
The housing market appears to be gaining traction, with a further rise in house prices and mortgage lending. But talk of a new housing boom is wide of the mark. … Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) & Mortgage Lending …
30th August 2013
House prices as measured by the Land Registry are now beginning to catch up with the main lender indices, with the strongest month-on-month rise for 1½ years. But a new house price boom still looks to be unlikely. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
29th August 2013
The new-build premium has more or less held its ground over the past year, with new homes around 15% more expensive than equivalent second-hand properties. But with new-build prices now receiving an additional stimulus from the equity loan component of …
The steady growth in mortgage approvals stalled in July, and net lending was negative for an unprecedented seventh month in a row. While this is probably a blip, it highlights that lenders are still cautious about whom they lend to, and talk of a new …
23rd August 2013
By reducing households’ concerns that mortgage rates will increase in the near future, forward guidance has the potential to provide a further boost to housing demand. But while the policy can’t harm housing market activity, with wholesale interest rates …
21st August 2013
After the success of the Help to Buy equity loan scheme, there are concerns that the potentially much larger mortgage guarantee aspect of the scheme could trigger a new house price boom when it is launched in 2014. Compared to the equity loan, however, …
19th August 2013
Private housing starts are increasing as builders begin to respond to the boost in demand from record low mortgage rates and the Help to Buy equity loan scheme. But with the supply response so far lagging demand, prices are also on the up. … …
15th August 2013
The latest RICS housing survey reported a jump in demand for homes and house prices, as record low mortgage rates tempt more people into buying a home. But with housing overvalued, a rise in prices should not be viewed as good news. … RICS Residential …
13th August 2013
Record low mortgage rates and the Help to Buy equity loan scheme have given a boost to housing demand, which has helped house prices to make some gains. But with more homes now coming onto the market, and real earnings still falling, a full blown house …
9th August 2013
Low interest rates and lender forbearance are keeping mortgage possessions at levels which pose little threat to the outlook for house prices. But a meaningful drop in mortgage arrears is unlikely until the squeeze on incomes goes into reverse. … …
8th August 2013
Lending to buy-to-let investors gathered pace in the second quarter. But the data do not suggest that landlords are playing a disproportionately large role in the nascent housing market recovery. … CML Buy-to-Let Lending …
Halifax reported that house prices rose by a sturdy 0.9%m/m in July, which helped the annual rate to a three-year high. But with house prices already overvalued, the gains are worryingly reliant on Government interventions. … Halifax House Prices …
6th August 2013
Signs of life in the housing market could aid the recovery in consumer spending. But continued falls in real pay are likely to keep any near-term consumer revival subdued. … Fragile recovery finally …
5th August 2013
House prices are continuing to gain ground. A strong 0.8%m/m increase combined with favourable base effects to boost the annual growth rate to 3.9%. But with house prices already overvalued, we do not see this as good news. … Nationwide House Prices …
2nd August 2013
House prices in London as a whole have outperformed the rest of the country since the financial crisis, but this is not the case for all parts of the capital. Those boroughs with the highest prices prior to 2008 crash have seen a far stronger recovery, …
31st July 2013
After three months of gains, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase showed a surprising drop in June. While this is almost certainly a blip, rather than an indication that banks are pulling back from the housing market, it is a reminder that …
29th July 2013
The recent rise in demand for new-build homes, partly driven by Help to Buy, has helped private home starts reach their highest level since the start of the financial crisis. While this is good news, the boost to supply has yet to match the rise in …
26th July 2013
The Land Registry reported that house prices increased by 0.6%m/m in June. But there is scant evidence that house prices are about to take-off - the annual rate stayed in the narrow band of 0.2% to 0.9% where it has been for the past year. … Land …
Mortgage lending by the major high street banks increased for the fourth consecutive month in June, funded by a further rise in mortgage repayments. But compared to May and April, the growth in lending has slowed. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun …
23rd July 2013
In the short term, whether gross or net mortgage lending matters more for house prices depends on the type of mortgage repayments being made. In that regard, with the recent rise in repayments being driven by redemptions as people move home, rather than …
18th July 2013
Record low mortgage rates, the equity loan component of the Government’s Help to Buy scheme and a general improvement in the economic environment have helped activity in the housing market to recover. We now expect house prices to increase by 2% both this …
17th July 2013
Housing market activity continues to pick-up, and the balance of surveyors expecting a further increase in sales is at a record high. But house prices are only expected to rise modestly over the next year. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
9th July 2013
In our latest UK Quarterly Review , we discuss reasons to be optimistic about the UK’s medium term outlook. Contrary to the popular belief that we are the eternal “Eeyores” of the economics world, we believe that the UK economy could yet stage a strong …
8th July 2013
Housing market activity is on the up as record low mortgage rates and Government interventions support demand. But supply has so far been slow to respond, with some home movers delaying putting their property on the market. So far this has supported price …
4th July 2013
Halifax reports that house prices have risen for the fifth consecutive month, and on an annual basis prices are now growing at 3.7%, the highest rate in almost three years. But with more homes now being put up for sale, the upwards pressure on prices is …
The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions survey shows that the supply of finance continues to improve in both the residential and commercial property sectors. However, there has been no easing in residential credit scoring criteria, while commercial …
3rd July 2013
The introduction in March 2012 of a new 7% stamp duty rate for homes sold for more than £2m has contributed to reduction in high-value transactions of around 12% in 2012, compared to an increase in sales for all other price bands. But there is also …
2nd July 2013
The Bank of England reported that gross mortgage lending in May reached the highest level since the start of the financial crisis, and mortgage approvals for house purchase also saw a robust rise. But mortgage repayments saw a concurrent increase, and net …
1st July 2013
The Land Registry reported that prices were essentially flat over May, which helped bring the annual rate of inflation down a touch to 0.5%. Prices in London are still far outperforming the rest of the country, but the North West managed to record the …
28th June 2013
The Nationwide reported that house prices have continued to drift gently upward, with favourable base effects helping the annual rate of growth to a 2½ year high. But price gains are not accelerating – household sector finances are simply not strong …
The Chancellor’s efforts to engineer a sustainable, demand-led recovery in mortgage lending and housebuilding are unlikely to succeed. One possible outcome is that prices simply surge, pushing housing further beyond the reach of young and low income …
27th June 2013
