Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The growth in mortgage lending has slowed, as new regulations have led to a decline in the share of high loan-to-value and loan-to-income mortgages. But alongside a further fall in the share of mortgages in arrears, that will put households in a stronger …
9th December 2014
The share of income a new buyer spends on their mortgage is an obvious way to measure housing affordability. But whether it is calculated using average house prices and incomes, or mortgage lender records, the data suggest that ultra-low interest rates …
8th December 2014
Although homeowners are currently carrying a lot of mortgage debt, compressing mortgage spreads and an expected concurrent increase in incomes means that they are not notably more sensitive to a rise in interest rates than in the past. … Are homeowners …
5th December 2014
House price gains have continued to cool according to the Halifax, reflecting the earlier drop in demand growth. The cut in stamp duty announced by the Chancellor yesterday will give house prices a boost over the next few months, but with house prices …
4th December 2014
Reforming Stamp Duty Land Tax from a slab to a graduated system is certainly an improvement, and should give a short-term boost to housing transactions. But it will also give another boost to overvalued house prices (at least those beneath £1m), and offer …
3rd December 2014
In line with the earlier BBA data, the Bank of England reported a further fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase in October. But with a strong economy and falling mortgage rates boosting consumer confidence, that downwards trend should soon be …
1st December 2014
Both the Nationwide and Land Registry reported a further cooling in underlying house price inflation in November and October respectively. With housing demand contracting, house price gains should continue to ease from here. … Nationwide (Nov.) & Land …
28th November 2014
The lack of a recovery in mortgage lending reflects a sharp slowdown in housing demand. However, with mortgage rates falling to new record lows, the economy set for robust growth and uncertainty over leverage ratios lifting, conditions for a gradual …
25th November 2014
Housing starts suffered a surprise dip the third quarter. But with work in progress perceived as inadequate to meet expected demand, builders will be keen to up production. … Housebuilding …
20th November 2014
A combination of very low inflation, reviving growth in earnings and further robust jobs growth should ensure that households’ real disposable incomes grow in 2015 at their fastest annual rate since 2003. Accordingly, we think that the recovery in …
19th November 2014
According to Rightmove, the number of homes that estate agents had for sale in November was at a record low for this time of year. However, with new home completions expected to show the first signs of recovery in the third quarter, and an easing in price …
18th November 2014
According to the RICS survey house price gains are continuing to ease as housing demand contracts. But with mortgage rates dropping to a new record low, and the strength of the jobs recovery finally starting to feed through to a sustained pick-up in real …
13th November 2014
The growth in mortgage lending continued to slow in the third quarter according to the CML. But the MMR has not led to a sharp drop in LTI or LTV ratios, and lending should pick up once housing demand starts to recover. … CML Lending Trends (2014 …
11th November 2014
The latest Halifax house price index brought further evidence that the sharp drop in active housing demand since the turn of the year has taken much of the steam out of house prices. … Halifax House Prices …
6th November 2014
House prices increased in October following a dip in the previous month, according to the Nationwide. But the bigger picture is that, with housing demand constrained, underlying house price growth will continue to soften. … Nationwide House Prices …
30th October 2014
According to the Bank of England, mortgage approvals fell once again in September, to a 14-month low. But with economic conditions still favourable, this weak patch shouldn’t last much longer. … Mortgage Lending …
29th October 2014
Following two months of very strong month-on-month growth, house prices dipped by 0.2% in September according to the Land Registry. Subdued demand suggests house price gains will continue to decelerate, with London expected to see a particularly rapid …
28th October 2014
The British Bankers’ Association reported that mortgage approvals dropped in September, leading to the first annual decline in loans for 18 months. But with lenders planning to boost the availability of secured finance over the remainder of the year, we …
23rd October 2014
Labour have now confirmed that their version of the mansion tax would be based around price bands, with homes valued at between £2m and £3m having to pay a flat rate charge of £3,000 per year. In theory, that should have a minimal impact on the prices of …
22nd October 2014
Housing market activity has cooled considerably over the past few months. A lack of homes available for sale, fears over future increases in interest rates, a drop in mortgage lending following the introduction of new regulations and buyers balking at the …
17th October 2014
Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead, we are confident that labour supply will continue to …
16th October 2014
After blowing out during the financial crisis, mortgage interest rate spreads have been trending down for the past 18 months. As financial markets make further progress towards normality, that process should continue. However, new mortgage market …
14th October 2014
The September RICS survey has once again indicated that demand in the housing market is cooling, particularly in London. But there is tentative evidence that activity levels and price expectations are at least now stabilising. … RICS Residential Market …
9th October 2014
While the rise of 0.6% m/m in September on the Halifax measure of house prices is perhaps stronger than expected, it remains the case that underlying house price inflation is cooling. With housing demand very subdued, house price gains will weaken further …
8th October 2014
Credit availability contracted in both the commercial and residential sectors in the third quarter, with mortgages seeing a particularly severe decline. But while lenders expect the availability of loans for house purchase to recover over the final …
7th October 2014
The cooling in housing demand seen over the past few months is now feeding through into weaker house price gains. But mortgage lending and activity should begin to recover towards the end of the year, with demand supported by a strong economic backdrop …
3rd October 2014
The FPC has requested additional powers over loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios, which will include buy-to-let lending. But with the housing market now cooling, and limits on high loan-to-income mortgages already in place, we doubt the FPC will make …
2nd October 2014
The Nationwide reported that house prices fell for the first time in 17 months in September, providing further evidence of a cooling housing market. With other forward looking indicators also weak, house price inflation is likely to remain subdued for the …
30th September 2014
The number of mortgages approved for house purchase dropped once again in August. Housing demand is cooling on the back of high house prices, but as price gains moderate and real earnings pick up, mortgage lending will recover. … Mortgage Lending …
29th September 2014
The large 1.0% m/m rise in house prices in August reported by the Land Registry reflects tight market conditions in the spring. But forward looking indicators continue to point to a cooling in housing demand, with the slowdown particularly evident in …
26th September 2014
The main high street banks cut the number of mortgages approved for house purchase for the second month in a row in August, to their lowest level in a year. Weak housing demand argues against a revival over the next couple of months, but beyond that a …
23rd September 2014
Mortgage arrears have returned to pre-crisis rates despite six years of falling real earnings. Instead the improvement is largely down to record low interest rates. All else equal, that suggests arrears could jump when rates increase. However, all else is …
19th September 2014
After growing at a rapid pace for 16 months, growth in demand for new homes has eased back sharply. But that appears to be driven primarily by a shortage of homes actually up for sale – if builders can up their production, finding a viable buyer should …
16th September 2014
The housing market appears to be at risk of becoming becalmed as buyers fret about sky high prices and the prospect of higher borrowing costs. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
11th September 2014
The mortgage market continues on its long road to recovery, with an increase in the total value of loans advanced and evidence that higher loan-to-value lending is finally seeing something of a comeback. … Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics …
9th September 2014
Halifax reported that house prices were essentially flat in August, with a gain of only 0.1% during the month. Given the volatility of monthly data recently, it is hard to draw any firm conclusions from that, but underlying measures suggest some easing in …
8th September 2014
A lack of homes for sale is discouraging potential buyers, resulting in an easing in housing demand. And those who are looking are baulking at the prices sellers are demanding. Activity will recover as more homes come onto the market, with more realistic …
4th September 2014
The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchase contracted marginally in July. But with the disruption caused by the MMR fading and a strong economic backdrop, lending should recover slowly from here. … Mortgage Lending …
1st September 2014
The Nationwide and Land Registry both reported strong month-on-month rises in house prices in August and July respectively. But underlying measures suggest the momentum in the market is now dissipating, and growth should slow from here. … Nationwide …
29th August 2014
The BBA reported that banks approved fewer mortgages for house purchase in July compared to the previous month. But with the employment rate close to a record high and house price expectations elevated, lending will grow from here. … BBA Mortgage …
26th August 2014
The marginal gain in housing starts in the second quarter suggests that material and labour shortages are constraining housebuilders’ output. Despite the impetus from the Help to Buy equity loan scheme and favourable wider economic conditions, these …
21st August 2014
The surge in London house prices in recent years is often largely attributed to the relative strength of prime property, which itself is usually seen as the latest stage of a long standing trend. While there is something in the first of these stylised …
20th August 2014
While the recovery in consumer spending is no longer gaining pace, we expect it to remain brisk over the next couple of years. Real earnings should pick up as inflation eases and further falls in unemployment strengthen workers’ bargaining power. And …
18th August 2014
New buyer enquiries contracted marginally in July according to the RICS survey, which should help cool house price inflation. But the stock of property on the market is still very low, and price expectations remain historically elevated. … RICS …
14th August 2014
Despite most remortgages not being subject to the MMR regulations, remortgaging activity is still very subdued. It is a lack of demand for remortgages that is holding back the market, and that will only change once the interest rate on new mortgage loans …
13th August 2014
The number of mortgages advanced for house purchase in the second quarter rose by 19% compared to a year earlier according to the CML, which suggests that the MMR has not slammed the brakes on lending. Indeed, the amount first-time buyers borrowed in …
11th August 2014
The moderation in housing market activity seen in recent months partly reflects the disruption caused by the MMR, and as this passes mortgage lending and demand will continue to increase. But concern over housing valuations and lender caution will mean …
7th August 2014
The volatility in the Halifax measure of house prices continues, with a rise of 1.4% in July more than reversing last month’s drop. The underlying rate of growth has now accelerated, but given other signs of a cooling in housing market activity we expect …
6th August 2014
House price growth eased in July according to the Nationwide, with a rise of just 0.1% m/m – the slowest since April last year. A slowdown in growth was expected, given the drop in sales seen in recent months, and we expect the next year or two to be …
31st July 2014
Housing market activity was already slowing prior to the introduction of the MMR. However evidence from the buy-to-let market suggests that the disruption to banks’ lending process turned an expected slowdown in mortgage approvals into an outright …
30th July 2014
