Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the capital will gently accelerate from here, to 2% by 2020. … …
14th December 2018
November’s fall in buyer enquiries and sales instructions is consistent with our view that there will be no revival in the housing market next year. Indeed, with the pipeline of housing sales weakening, transactions are more likely to fall, rather than …
13th December 2018
Despite a small rise in average mortgage LTVs and LTIs, a material loosening in credit conditions is not on the way. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is reached, we expect little or no growth in mortgage lending next year. … Mortgage Lenders and …
11th December 2018
Our outlook for the housing market is weak. Admittedly, the recent rise in mortgage approvals and housing transactions offered a little relief for the market. But leading indicators suggest that those gains won’t be repeated. Indeed, even with a Brexit …
10th December 2018
House price inflation on the Halifax index paused in November. With house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, we expect house price growth to stay sluggish over the next two years. … Halifax House Prices …
7th December 2018
There is little evidence that Brexit uncertainty has led to pent-up demand in the housing market. So even if a Brexit deal is struck, we see little prospect of a rise in housing transactions next year. … Even a Brexit deal won’t revive the housing …
4th December 2018
House price growth accelerated in November. But that didn’t alter the wider trend of slowing house price inflation. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates on an upward trajectory, we expect house price inflation to slow further …
30th November 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals rose in October. But that did little to offset the weakness in lending seen over the last year. Moreover, there are few reasons to believe that the latest rise is the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, we expect little …
29th November 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase ended three months of decline with a small rise in October. But with house prices high and interest rates expected to rise next year, the outlook for lending is expected to be subdued for some time. … UK Finance …
26th November 2018
Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined with falling output among traditional housebuilders, we …
23rd November 2018
The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. … No sign of easing in deposit …
19th November 2018
While house price inflation edged up in September, the wider trend is still one of slowing growth. With house prices set to stay high relative to incomes, interest rates rising and house price expectations weakening, we expect that trend to persist into …
14th November 2018
In our base case, which is predicated on a Brexit deal being secured and the UK entering into a status quo transition period, a further rise in real earnings should spur a recovery in consumer spending growth. As a result, we expect real spending growth …
13th November 2018
Falling buyer confidence and subdued house price expectations will keep the housing market flat-lining until the end of the year. Rising interest rates will then prevent it from gaining traction in 2019. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
8th November 2018
The Halifax measure of house price growth fell to a 5-year low in October, echoing last week’s Nationwide index and supporting our view of a subdued outlook for UK house prices. … Halifax House Prices …
7th November 2018
The outlook for the housing market is subdued. In the near term, rate rises and signs of growing lender caution will add to the headwinds facing the market. That said, at least house prices are now rising more slowly than income. Given time, that will …
6th November 2018
According to the Nationwide, house price growth hit a five-year low in October. That result is in line with our expectation that house price inflation will subside to 1% or so next year. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st November 2018
The extension of Help-to-Buy provides housebuilders with much needed policy certainty. But with no broader housing market recovery in sight and HTB eligibility to tighten, the industry nonetheless faces weakening demand. We expect a gradual decline in …
31st October 2018
Mortgage approvals fell in September, leaving lending broadly flat over the last three months. Looking ahead, with house prices very high, interest rates on the rise and mortgage lenders becoming more cautious, the outlook for mortgage approvals is …
29th October 2018
Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years. … Mortgage lender caution set to …
26th October 2018
Mortgage lending is on a gentle downward trajectory, as mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in September. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high and interest rates rising, the outlook for lending is …
24th October 2018
The stagnation in the housing market is set to continue for the foreseeable future, as the combination of high house prices and rising mortgage rates, which are set to exceed 3% by 2020, hold the market back. Meanwhile, house price inflation will cool to …
18th October 2018
UK house price growth slowed a touch in August. And while today’s data points to stable London house prices, other indices point to a fall. On balance, we expect UK house price growth to slow further in 2018 and 2019, while London prices will see a modest …
17th October 2018
Rising real wage growth should pave the way for a consumer recovery next year. At the same time, the lifting of Brexit-related uncertainty will set the stage for a sharp rebound in investment spending. This should allow GDP growth to quicken from a …
15th October 2018
A no deal Brexit next March will result in economic activity being lower than in our current forecasts. But with rates also likely to be cut, unless that slowdown is far deeper and more lasting than we think plausible, it will not be the event that …
12th October 2018
Banks reigned in the availability of mortgage credit in Q3, driven by risk aversion and softening house price expectations. Meanwhile, a fall in risk appetite and concerns about the economic outlook drove a reduction in the availability of credit to …
11th October 2018
Housing market activity fell for a second consecutive month in September. That leaves little chance of a pick-up in transactions or mortgage lending before the end of 2018. And with interest rates on an upward trajectory and house prices very high, we …
After a brief respite in the middle 2018, housing market activity is once again in decline. As a result, there is little prospect of a recovery in transactions or mortgage approvals before the end of the year. Furthermore, with interest rates rising and …
9th October 2018
The Halifax index of house prices fall in September, bringing its growth back in line with the other main indices. Looking ahead, we can see few triggers for an acceleration in house price growth. … Halifax House Prices …
5th October 2018
House price growth held firm at 2% y/y in September. And on a regional basis, the South of England tended to underperform the rest of the UK. Looking ahead, we expect that regional trend to continue, and for rising interest rates to slow UK house price …
2nd October 2018
Mortgage approvals rose in August, but lending is still broadly flat on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, our outlook for mortgage approvals is subdued. … Mortgage …
1st October 2018
Housing starts have declined in response to weakening demand. Looking ahead, there are few reasons to expect demand to bounce back. As a result, we expect builders to slow construction further over the rest of 2018, rather than run the risk of building …
27th September 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase edged down in August, leaving lending at the bottom end of the range that has been seen over the last few years. With interest rates rising and no sign of a recovery in buyer numbers, there is little reason to expect …
26th September 2018
In line with our expectations, housing transactions in London are falling, while house prices are on a gradual downward trajectory. Even so, house prices are still very high and with interest rates on the rise, we expect price cuts to be extended over the …
25th September 2018
Slowing rental growth has been driven by cooling tenant demand growth. And in the near term, there are few signs of an imminent revival in rents. But with the supply and demand balance more likely to tighten than to loosen, we expect a modest improvement …
21st September 2018
According to the UK House Price Index, house price inflation slowed in July, bringing it further in line with the other main measures. And looking ahead, we expect house price growth to continue to slow, as house price falls in London are extended. … UK …
19th September 2018
With RICS survey pointing to falling activity across the board, the housing market’s mid-year respite ended in August. Indeed, leading indicators point to flat or falling mortgage approvals to the end of the year. And we expect the picture of slowing …
13th September 2018
Despite support from Help-to-Buy, newbuild demand appears to have slumped during 2018. In response, some builders will need to cut prices to clear unsold inventory – stalling newbuild house price growth. And softening demand will also cut housing starts …
11th September 2018
The Halifax index recorded faster house price inflation in August, but that result is an outlier compared to the other main indices. And looking ahead, with interest rates normalising gradually and no sign of a pick-up in housing market activity, we think …
7th September 2018
New buyer enquiries, new sales instructions and newly agreed sales all held steady over the month. As a result, there are few reasons to expect a pick-up in either mortgage approvals or transactions before the end of 2018. Furthermore, given the very high …
6th September 2018
While elevated inflation weighed on consumer spending in the first half of 2018, a modest recovery in spending growth is in the pipeline. As the labour market continues to tighten, wage growth will rise further. And although the fall back in inflation has …
Our analysis of the BTL lending data suggests that, over the last year, the sell-off among landlords has persisted. And given the further reduction in mortgage interest tax relief that is on the way, stagnant house prices and rising interest rates, there …
3rd September 2018
House price growth cooled to 2% in August, down from 3.2% in January. And with no sign of a pick-up in demand or sales, we expect price gains slow a little further by the end of the year. … Nationwide House Prices …
31st August 2018
July saw a 0.9% drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase, partly reversing the gains seen in May and June. Looking ahead, with house prices high and interest rates set to rise further, lending is likely to remain subdued. … Mortgage Lending …
30th August 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped in July, ending a three-month streak of gains. But the big picture is that lending has seen no sustained improvement since 2013. And with high house prices and rising interest rates set to hold back demand, we …
24th August 2018
The weakness in London’s housing market has been accompanied by a rise in months of unsold stock. Something similar appears to be happening in the South East and we have trimmed our forecasts as a result. But for now, there is little to suggest that these …
23rd August 2018
The subdued demand and mortgage lending environment is weighing on house prices. The official index reported that house price growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost 5 years in June. But with interest rates rising and the pace of job creation set to …
15th August 2018
High levels of remortgaging in the second quarter suggest that borrowers are actively taking steps to limit the impact of rising Bank Rate on their mortgage payments over the coming few years. While that bodes well for mortgage arrears, higher interest …
14th August 2018
Data from the RICS suggest that the number of new instructions was flat in July, with new buyer enquiries also broadly stable. Against a backdrop of higher interest rates, the outlook for the market is subdued. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
9th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
