Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Despite support from Help-to-Buy, newbuild demand appears to have slumped during 2018. In response, some builders will need to cut prices to clear unsold inventory – stalling newbuild house price growth. And softening demand will also cut housing starts …
11th September 2018
The Halifax index recorded faster house price inflation in August, but that result is an outlier compared to the other main indices. And looking ahead, with interest rates normalising gradually and no sign of a pick-up in housing market activity, we think …
7th September 2018
New buyer enquiries, new sales instructions and newly agreed sales all held steady over the month. As a result, there are few reasons to expect a pick-up in either mortgage approvals or transactions before the end of 2018. Furthermore, given the very high …
6th September 2018
While elevated inflation weighed on consumer spending in the first half of 2018, a modest recovery in spending growth is in the pipeline. As the labour market continues to tighten, wage growth will rise further. And although the fall back in inflation has …
Our analysis of the BTL lending data suggests that, over the last year, the sell-off among landlords has persisted. And given the further reduction in mortgage interest tax relief that is on the way, stagnant house prices and rising interest rates, there …
3rd September 2018
House price growth cooled to 2% in August, down from 3.2% in January. And with no sign of a pick-up in demand or sales, we expect price gains slow a little further by the end of the year. … Nationwide House Prices …
31st August 2018
July saw a 0.9% drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase, partly reversing the gains seen in May and June. Looking ahead, with house prices high and interest rates set to rise further, lending is likely to remain subdued. … Mortgage Lending …
30th August 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase dipped in July, ending a three-month streak of gains. But the big picture is that lending has seen no sustained improvement since 2013. And with high house prices and rising interest rates set to hold back demand, we …
24th August 2018
The weakness in London’s housing market has been accompanied by a rise in months of unsold stock. Something similar appears to be happening in the South East and we have trimmed our forecasts as a result. But for now, there is little to suggest that these …
23rd August 2018
The subdued demand and mortgage lending environment is weighing on house prices. The official index reported that house price growth slowed to its lowest rate in almost 5 years in June. But with interest rates rising and the pace of job creation set to …
15th August 2018
High levels of remortgaging in the second quarter suggest that borrowers are actively taking steps to limit the impact of rising Bank Rate on their mortgage payments over the coming few years. While that bodes well for mortgage arrears, higher interest …
14th August 2018
Data from the RICS suggest that the number of new instructions was flat in July, with new buyer enquiries also broadly stable. Against a backdrop of higher interest rates, the outlook for the market is subdued. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
9th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
According to the Halifax index, house price growth accelerated in July. But at 3.3% per-year, prices are still rising at a sluggish pace. And looking ahead, with prices already very high and interest rates rising, we expect house price inflation to slow …
7th August 2018
The housing market enjoyed a little respite in June. The decline in buyer enquiries paused, new sales instructions rose and mortgage approvals recovered from their recent slide. But with house prices very high, and interest rates having risen, neither …
6th August 2018
The vast majority of existing mortgage borrowers should be well placed to deal with the latest rise in Bank Rate. But a rising cost of borrowing will further constrain demand from new buyers, ensuring that mortgage approvals and sales stay close to their …
2nd August 2018
It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property, residential and commercial, is on course to cause trouble for the …
House price inflation edged up in July. But we doubt that the market has gained a new lease of life. Indeed, with interest rates set to rise imminently, we expect house price growth to slow over the remainder of the year. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st August 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals rose for a second month in June – by a respectable 1.4% m/m. But demand is still weak, and further growth in lending will be constrained by high house prices and rising interest rates. As a result, we doubt that the …
30th July 2018
The end of the BTL boom has contributed to reduced liquidity in the rental market, making it harder for tenants to find a home. With no sign of a BTL revival in sight, we suspect the current slowdown in rental growth will not last much longer. … Landlord …
27th July 2018
Mortgage approvals have recovered during the second quarter, having now risen for three consecutive months. But demand is still weak, and further growth in approvals will be constrained by high prices and rising interest rates. As a result, we doubt the …
25th July 2018
Mortgage rates are set to exceed 3% by the end of our forecast. With house prices very high, that will keep house price inflation below 2% out to 2020. This means that the house price to income ratio will see a small improvement over that time. But that …
24th July 2018
With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the coming quarters, particularly if Brexit turmoil results …
18th July 2018
The UK House Price Index recorded a broad-based slowdown in May, with house price inflation cooling in every region over the last three months. … UK House Price Index …
Credit availability for residential mortgages edged up in Q2, but only for lower LTV mortgages. And while the credit conditions for commercial property were broadly unchanged, for the first time since 2015, lenders expect credit availability to rise next …
12th July 2018
New sales instructions rose for a second consecutive month in June. But with new buyer enquiries flat and the stock of homes for sale still close to a record low, a meaningful recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions before the end of 2018 looks …
Data revisions left Q1 GDP at 0.2% q/q, an improvement over the previous estimate but still weak. However the PMI data showed further improvement in June. As a result, economic growth is likely to have bounced back in the second quarter, to perhaps 0.4% …
6th July 2018
Annual house price growth cooled in June, driven by a gentle decline in prices over the last few months. With buyer interest in decline and further interest rate hikes ahead, we think house price growth will cool a little more over the rest of the year. … …
May’s rise in mortgage approvals was too small to suggest that a revival in the lending market is underway. Not only was the number of mortgages approved comfortably within the range which has typified the last four years, but it was still lower than the …
29th June 2018
Housing starts fell in Q1, as the wider housing market slowdown caught up with the newbuild sector. Indeed, with newbuild transactions now falling, we think the housebuilding recovery has reached a hiatus, with starts unlikely to see a meaningful rise …
28th June 2018
House price inflation slowed to 2% in June – the slowest result since 2013. And with prices down by 1.9% y/y in Q2, the fall in London prices accelerated. That said, with tentative signs that activity levels in the housing market may have stopped falling, …
27th June 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals rose gently in May – for a second consecutive month. But lending is still down compared to a year ago. And while the recent trend of falling mortgage market activity seems to be ending, a meaningful recovery may still be …
26th June 2018
The housing market slowdown has finally caught up with housebuilders – with both transactions and house prices in the newbuild sector feeling the pinch. As a result, we expect the current stagnation in housing starts last for the remainder of 2018. What’s …
20th June 2018
New sales instructions grew in May, for the first time in over two years. That could be a sign that the sell-off among landlords is intensifying. In any case, with new buyer enquiries still declining, it seems increasingly likely that house price …
14th June 2018
The official index showed house price growth cooling in April. And while the rate of house price growth in London returned to positive territory, there are few reasons to think this will be sustained. … UK House Price Index …
13th June 2018
Today’s detailed mortgage lending data suggest that the slowdown in net lending has been driven primarily by buy-to-let. This suggests that the sell-off among landlords has, if anything, intensified over the last year. … Mortgage Lenders and …
12th June 2018
The decline in housing market activity slowed in April. That said, the data are some way short of pointing to a meaningful recovery in either house price growth or transactions. On balance, we expect house price inflation to slow a touch more, dropping to …
7th June 2018
According to the Halifax index, house prices saw a fairly strong rise in May. Even so, the latest rise only partially reversed the large drop seen last month. As a result, house price inflation edged down below 2%. And looking ahead, with prices in London …
Abstracting from the effects of the snow in Q1, the big picture remains one of very feeble consumer spending. But things are starting to look up. CPI inflation now appears to be on a firm downward trajectory. And there have been clearer signs of a revival …
4th June 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase weakened again in April, while house prices edged down in May. But with real incomes growing once more and Q1’s weak GDP growth unlikely to be repeated, activity in the housing market may soon stabilise. … Mortgage …
31st May 2018
Landlords are trimming their portfolios, reducing the number of privately rented homes in the dwelling stock for the first time in 18 years. For now, there are few signs that these additional sellers will trigger a collapse in house prices. But the risks …
25th May 2018
March’s dip in house purchase approvals was reversed in April, suggesting that a renewed slide in lending is not underway. That’s said, with buyer enquiries and newly agreed sales still softening, mortgage approvals will likely stay muted until the end of …
UK house prices are still growing, albeit at a subdued pace. But prices in London are falling, while rental growth there has also paused. Looking ahead, we expect price growth across the country to slow further, in large part because we think price falls …
23rd May 2018
Transactions fell sharply in March. But that was probably down to a combination of weak activity from the end of last year, as well as the recent bout of extreme weather. As a result, we think the fall in transactions is probably close to bottoming out. … …
17th May 2018
Q1’s weakness in mortgage advances was driven primarily by the buy-to-let sector. With changes to mortgage interest tax relief and rising interest rates set to erode landlords’ returns, the prospect of a recovery in BTL activity is looking increasingly …
16th May 2018
The housing market slowed further in March – mortgage approvals slipped, transactions took a surprisingly large tumble and house price growth was lacklustre. April’s data from the RICS implied that the pace of decline in activity may have eased a touch. …
11th May 2018
The MPC held off from raising Bank Rate in May, suggesting that the next rise in mortgage rates may also have been deferred. But interest rates remain on an upward trajectory, suggesting that today’s decision will do nothing to reanimate the housing …
10th May 2018
Data from the RICS suggest that the decline in housing market activity eased off in April. But there is little reason to believe that either transactions or house price pressures will soon recover. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
According to the Halifax index, house prices fell sharply in April, more than reversing March’s gain. And with buyer demand and housing market activity falling, we expect house price inflation to edge downwards over the remainder of the year. … Halifax …
8th May 2018
The shortage of willing buyers is most evident at the top end of London’s housing market. So in 2018, we expect house price falls to be concentrated in the more expensive central London boroughs. In 2019, however, price falls are likely to spread to outer …
4th May 2018
