Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Encouraging results expected to be a false dawn UK housing market activity rose again in February according to the RICS. But as the survey was conducted before the escalation of the coronavirus crisis and related financial market turmoil, we expect any …
12th March 2020
High LTV lending eases at the end of 2019 The latest mortgage statistics show an easing in the share of higher LTV loans at the end of 2019, though there was evidence that high LTI loans have risen slightly. Overall, our view remains that high house …
10th March 2020
Coronavirus fears will cut short the housing market recovery, and we have reduced our forecasts for house price growth in response. What’s more, the risks to the market – particularly housing transactions – are now firmly on the downside. Recent months …
6th March 2020
House price pressures cool Annual house price growth on the Halifax index cooled in February, suggesting that the market has lost steam. Looking ahead, with the coronavirus likely to affect sentiment as well as economic activity in the coming months, the …
Sharp rise in construction output The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed to the strongest rise in construction since December 2018. This was driven by improvements in both commercial property and housing. But with the economic outlook weak and …
3rd March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
Post-election lending surge in January House purchase mortgage approvals surged in January, and leading indicators point to further gains in the coming months. But with house prices high, economic growth set to stay weak and uncertainty to return later …
House prices gather momentum House prices gathered momentum in February, and leading indicators point to further near-term gains. But this latest boost reflects sentiment, while the fundamentals argue against a sustained acceleration. We expect house …
28th February 2020
The next few months could see a modest jump in London house prices, and we have upgraded our forecast to a 4% gain for 2020. But with the house price to earnings ratio still exceptionally high, any recovery in the capital is unlikely to be sustained. Once …
25th February 2020
Leading indicators could be understating the coming recovery in housing sales. While we maintain our view that the recovery in transactions and lending will be modest, this suggests that the risks to our forecasts are on the upside. The housing market …
21st February 2020
The post-election housing market recovery is likely to last a few more months, and we have upgraded our 2020 forecasts in response. But the housing market fundamentals were unchanged by the election. As a result, we expect the surge in activity to subside …
14th February 2020
Boris bounce extends into January Housing market activity rose again in January, driven by a post-election rise in sentiment. This bodes well for the near-term, but the upward momentum can’t be sustained indefinitely. Indeed, we expect any surge in …
13th February 2020
No signs of acceleration in January Annual house price growth was broadly flat in January according to the Halifax index, suggesting that the surge in prices around the election may be short lived. Indeed, with house prices still high relative to incomes, …
7th February 2020
House price growth and transactions picked up, as political uncertainty eased following December’s general election. In the near term, leading indicators hint at a further recovery over the remainder of Q1. But with house prices high and interest rates …
6th February 2020
Construction output falls at slower pace The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed towards a slower decline in construction in January 2020. Improved balances in commercial property, civil engineering and housing signalled a post-election bounce, but …
4th February 2020
Rising owner occupation in part reflects government policy – tax hikes on buy-to-let landlords and support from Help to Buy. As a result, landlord taxation is unlikely to be eased anytime soon. And it suggests that Help to Buy will probably continue …
3rd February 2020
House purchase lending recovers in December Improving sentiment pushed house purchase mortgage approvals to a 29-month high in December. But Boris Johnson’s election win has done nothing to improve the housing market fundamentals. With house prices very …
31st January 2020
Partial recovery in housing starts Housing starts rose in Q3, but construction is still down sharply on an annual basis. Looking ahead however, improving sentiment suggest that further falls in construction will be limited. There were 39,500 housing …
29th January 2020
Further signs of a Boris bounce January’s house price data show further evidence of a Boris bounce. But while faster price growth reflects improved sentiment, the election did nothing to lower house prices, boost incomes or loosen credit constraints. So, …
Overview – We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU will hold …
28th January 2020
Mortgage approvals rise in December The UK Finance mortgage approvals data provides further tentative evidence that demand picked up at the end of 2019. But with Brexit-related uncertainty set to intensify later this year and with the housing fundamentals …
27th January 2020
Overview – While the decisive election result could lead to a modest increase in housing demand over the next couple of years, we doubt that this will translate into a substantive pick-up in transactions or house prices. Indeed, any improvement in …
23rd January 2020
Commercial and residential credit availability diverges Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals …
16th January 2020
Strong end to 2019 according to RICS Despite the RICS data pointing to a jump in active demand and supply in December, we doubt that will translate into a substantive increase in either transactions or house price growth this year. Indeed, with the …
Lower than expected interest rates would do little to boost house prices. After all, a shallower path for Bank Rate would reflect weaker than expected economic conditions. And in any case, there is only limited scope for further rate cuts, while mortgage …
10th January 2020
Second jump in house prices The Halifax index recorded another jump in house prices in December. This could signal a Boris bounce, but with price gains on the other main indices much weaker, today’s data probably overstate the strength of the market. …
8th January 2020
House purchase lending edges up in November November saw a marginal rise in house purchase mortgage approvals, suggesting that pre-election uncertainty had little effect on housing market activity. Looking ahead, given high house prices, a lack of homes …
3rd January 2020
House prices rose by 1.4% in 2019 Annual house price growth accelerated in December, ending the year a little faster than expected. But that pick-up largely reflected base effects. Looking ahead, with house prices still very high and mortgage interest …
Downward price pressures in London have eased, driven by a slump in homes coming up for sale. But with house prices high and mortgage interest rates close to their floor, that is unlikely to drive a recovery in prices soon. Rather, we expect a 1% fall in …
20th December 2019
Political uncertainty has eased following the election result, but the housing market fundamentals leave little room for a recovery in price growth or transactions in 2020. Combined with waning support from Help to Buy, weak housing market conditions will …
16th December 2019
Gloomy month for housing demand November’s survey data support our view that the housing market will struggle to gain any upward momentum next year. After all, with house prices high and mortgage interest rates unable to fall much further, we expect …
12th December 2019
High LTV lending hits 11 year high Lower prices have encouraged borrowers to take out higher LTV loans. But lenders have maintained their credit scoring standards and maximum LTI ratios, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Combined with the …
10th December 2019
Housing market activity and house price growth showed few signs of improvement at the end of 2019. Indeed, activity has, if anything, been cooling. (See Chart 1.) That partly reflects economic and political uncertainty. But the big picture is that high …
9th December 2019
The Halifax index once again an outlier The sharp acceleration in house price growth recorded by the Halifax in November was an outlier, and is unlikely to be repeated in the coming months. Indeed, we expect house price growth to stay at or below 2% y/y …
6th December 2019
Relative to past norms, returns on residential property will underperform over the next few years. But with commercial capital values dragged down by the retail sector, institutional investment in the residential private rented sector will nonetheless …
5th December 2019
Construction falls for seventh consecutive month November’s headline construction PMI increased from last month, which pointed towards the slowest decline in construction output since July. Nevertheless, it continues to point to a deterioration. The …
3rd December 2019
Labour and the Conservatives have pulled their punches on housing policy. Indeed, only Labour’s pledge to boost social housing construction would materially affect the market. As a result, we expect the outcome of the election to have little impact on …
29th November 2019
Drop in mortgage approvals House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October. Looking ahead, even if uncertainty were to lift at the start of next year, the housing market fundamentals do not support a pick-up in activity. We think growth in …
House price growth accelerates in November We wouldn’t read too much into November’s pick-up in house price growth. Indeed, the big picture is that, even if the economic and political uncertainty eases next year, house price growth will pick up only a …
28th November 2019
Mortgage approvals edge down in October Given the political and economic uncertainty, October’s drop in house purchase mortgage approvals came as little surprise. And even if uncertainty were to clear in the coming months, high house prices will keep …
26th November 2019
With housebuilders already close to capacity, the sector will struggle to sustain a further surge in output. As a result, if elected, we think Labour would likely to miss their manifesto commitment to build 150,000 council and social homes per year by the …
22nd November 2019
Housing completions have reached their highest level in over three decades. But timelier data on housing starts point to a weakening pipeline of construction. On that basis, we think housing completions could fall by 10% over the next three or four years. …
15th November 2019
Housing market activity faltering Against the uncertain political backdrop and with the economy weakening, the RICS survey data point to a weak near-term outlook for the housing market. Indeed, with house prices already very high and set to stay that way, …
14th November 2019
After a brief mid-year recovery, economic and political uncertainty is once again discouraging housing market activity. In all, the near term outlook for both housing sales and house prices is therefore weak. But beyond that, even if Brexit uncertainty …
8th November 2019
Annual house price growth slips below 1% Slowing house price growth on the Halifax index brought it closer to the other main price measures. With house prices high compared to incomes and interest rates close to their floor, we don’t expect a pick-up in …
7th November 2019
First increase in four months, but no recovery in sight October’s headline construction PMI increased for the first time in four months. But it continues to point to a deterioration in construction activity. Further, with Brexit-uncertainty prolonged, a …
4th November 2019
The Brexit extension and general election leaves the housing market outlook even more uncertain than a week ago. What’s more, given the vast distance between the two main political parties’ approach to the housing market, the December election could prove …
1st November 2019
Lending struggles to grow in September Mortgage approvals for house purchase and remortgaging rose in September, but annual growth in both were still weak. Looking ahead, the outlook is subdued. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, house purchase …
29th October 2019
House prices continue to stagnate House prices saw subdued growth in October. And while in wage-adjusted terms, prices are on a gradual downward trajectory, any meaningful downward adjustment will take time. Looking ahead, we expect house price inflation …
Overview – Regardless of what happens with Brexit in the months ahead, a revival in the owner occupier housing market is unlikely. Even if a Brexit deal is agreed soon, we expect to see only a small improvement in housing market transactions and house …
24th October 2019
