Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Monday’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey received a reasonable amount of media coverage due to the more upbeat tone of its results. At first glance, that might appear to suggest an imminent upturn in office occupier demand. However, a composite …
1st July 2009
Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for thinking that credit supply right across the economy will not …
26th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession likely to end this year, but property will lag behind (Jul …
25th June 2009
It has recently been put to us by a few clients that, counter to the Government’s best intentions, the Asset Protection Scheme (APS) will actually encourage lenders to foreclose on existing commercial property loans, thereby raising the risk of an …
18th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Financial & Business Services Employment (2009Q1) …
17th June 2009
Yesterday we revised up our economic forecasts. (See various Updates, available to clients on our website, for more details.) Although we still expect growth to remain weak, at the margin, the new forecasts imply a slightly less negative outlook for …
9th June 2009
Financial markets appear to have taken the recent signs that the downturn in the UK economy is past its absolute worst at face value, with equities, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate all rising to at least six month highs. But while the movements …
Tenant default and loss of rental income are now perhaps the foremost concerns for commercial property investors. As such, it is far from clear that property is undervalued, even though yields are now a record 400bps or so above government bonds. Indeed, …
8th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit construction PMI (May) & Mergers/acquisitions (Q1) …
2nd June 2009
Structural changes to commercial property leases in the UK (e.g. more break clauses) have meant that landlords’ incomes are now more exposed to market forces than they once were. On the basis of the same sized fall in open-market rental values that was …
29th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Construction Survey, 2009Q1 …
28th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rental values falling at fastest pace in 15 years, worse to come (Jun …
26th May 2009
Anecdotal evidence that commercial property yields have peaked is steadily accumulating. To be sure, it is only a very narrow and select portion of the market in which yields are reported to have stopped rising. That said, if this evidence is accurate, …
21st May 2009
Broadly speaking, the De Montfort review for 2008 supports our long-held view that commercial property lending will remain weak for a prolonged period. The sanguine attitude of lenders towards breaches of loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) remains in place, but …
15th May 2009
All else equal, the recent falls in office development pipelines in Central London would be positive for the outlook for rental values. However, take-up has fallen at an even faster rate, meaning that in relative terms the pipelines have in fact risen. …
14th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank lending to commercial property (2009Q1) …
8th May 2009
Sentiment towards commercial property has improved of late and some anecdotal evidence suggests that yields have stabilised. However, to date, the improvement in sentiment appears modest and the stabilisation in yields limited to a small part of the …
6th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Commercial Survey (Q1) & CIPS/Markit PMI (Apr.) …
5th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI/GVA Grimley Corporate Real Estate Survey, 2009H1 …
1st May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Forecasts for rental values in 2009 starting to look too optimistic (May …
27th April 2009
To date, the recession has triggered a larger fall in commercial property rental values than past experience suggests is typical. The abrupt drop in financial and business services employment, with its knock-on effects for office rental values (especially …
24th April 2009
This Budget was a holding operation which left the really tough decisions required to sort out the public finances to be taken by whoever is Chancellor after the next election. The tax increases and spending cuts announced today are just the tip of the …
22nd April 2009
We expect all-industrial rental values to decline by 9% this year and by a further 13% in 2010. However, the experience of the early 1990s suggests that the worst performing regions could see annual falls in rental values that are around five percentage …
16th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Credit Conditions (Q1) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI (Mar.) …
2nd April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Colliers CRE/EG Capital Property Pricing Survey …
31st March 2009
In our view, neither Government intervention in the banking sector nor quantitative easing (QE) is likely to alter the subdued outlook for commercial property lending. Not only will gross new lending flows be low, perhaps even zero, but lenders may also …
30th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Quantitative easing may help, but economic outlook still poor (Apr 09) …
27th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Institutional investment in property (2008Q4) …
26th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Financial & business services employment (2008Q4) …
18th March 2009
We continue to believe that IPD hotel total returns will be worse than the all-property average in 2009. However, in recognition of the changed economic circumstances, by contrast with what we predicted when we first looked closely at the hotel sector in …
13th March 2009
Financial markets appear finally to have grasped the severity of the economic outlook over the last few months. The steep falls in equity prices, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate have left them all looking much more consistent with current …
9th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … IPF Consensus Forecasts, 2009Q1 …
6th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mergers/acquisitions (‘08Q4) & CIPS construction (Feb ’09) …
3rd March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investment activity falls back; recovery remains some way off (Mar 09) …
26th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Construction Survey, 2008Q4 …
The economic outlook has deteriorated even further over the past three months. As a result, we now expect GDP to contract by 3% this year and by a further 1% in 2010. Accordingly, we have downgraded our forecast from a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital …
17th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey, 2008Q4 …
9th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank lending to commercial property (2008Q4) …
5th February 2009
We have long expected commercial property rental values to fall and, in our view, the decline of almost 1.5%y/y in 2008 is just the tip of the iceberg. With GDP set to shrink by 3% this year and by 1% next year, we continue to believe that all-property …
3rd February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit construction PMI (January) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rents now falling in all sectors; pace of decline to accelerate (Feb …
26th January 2009
Our view is that the sharp rise in the value of commercial property deals in December does not herald markedly more buoyant investment market activity in 2009. Admittedly, activity may lift a bit this year as some equity-rich buyers find the yields on …
15th January 2009
Today’s cut in interest rates to record low levels confirms that, for now at least, monetary policy remains focused on reducing the cost of money. We still expect rates to get down to zero, or very close, before the emphasis switches to boosting the …
8th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit construction PMI (December) …
5th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Institutional investment in property (2008Q3) …
19th December 2008
The latest De Montfort University report on bank lending to commercial property, if anything, only adds to the gloom hanging over the sector. What’s more, since it relates only to the first half of the year, its downbeat contents and message are likely to …
18th December 2008
The recent dreadful news on the UK economy and the fall in US interest rates very close to zero have convinced us that UK interest rates are set to fall even further than we had previously thought. Rates are effectively heading to zero on this side of the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling rents to keep the downward pressure on capital values (Jan 09) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Financial & business services employment (2008Q3) …
17th December 2008
The depreciation of the pound has been one of the few positives for the UK commercial property market over the past year. After all, for overseas investors, the pound’s fall has made UK property far cheaper, both in absolute terms and relative to property …
11th December 2008
