Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
In net terms, bank lending to commercial property remained firmly in negative territory in August. In turn, that reflected continued caution on the part of lenders to finance new development. … Lending to commercial property …
29th September 2015
The upswing in the rental recovery continues to strengthen. But, offsetting this, the contribution of yield impact is steadily is steadily fading and capital value growth is slowing. But with few signs that a rise in UK interest rates is imminent and the …
24th September 2015
In mid-2015, capital value growth in the Rest of the UK office market was roughly half that seen in the South East or London. Yet Manchester and Birmingham are delivering rather stronger rates of growth than that aggregate suggests. What’s more, both …
23rd September 2015
Experience suggests that shifts in demand, rather than supply, tend to act as the trigger for major rental value downturns. So, although the London office development pipeline has surged and is heavily skewed towards the City, without a sustained drop in …
17th September 2015
After disappointing in May and June, job creation staged a recovery in July. The data offered further evidence that demand for office space should be comparatively strong, and that the demand for distribution space is still improving steadily. … …
16th September 2015
The latest drop in the value of UK commercial property investment left it at a 15-month low. But this largely reflects a return to more normal market conditions after the record breaking totals seen in the first half of 2015. … Commercial property …
11th September 2015
Visitor numbers to the UK recently reached record levels, an encouraging development for the UK hotel sector. But spending by overseas visitors was less buoyant, suggesting that prime retail and leisure markets may not have benefitted to the same degree. …
10th September 2015
There is almost nothing to choose between our own forecasts for 2015 and those ofthe IPF Consensus. But we believe that a strong recovery in productivity will keep inflation subdued and allow the MPC to keep rates very low for the foreseeable future. As a …
4th September 2015
The latest upturn in the commercial construction PMI does little to change the picture of a sector that has come off the boil. As such, it suggests that commercial property development activity is unlikely to gather significant momentum over the remainder …
2nd September 2015
July’s dip in net lending to commercial property does not imply that credit for property acquisition or development is unavailable. But the data do suggest that lenders remain relatively cautious about the sector and that they are happy to carry on …
1st September 2015
For many years we have argued that UK markets were pricing in too early and too fast a tightening of monetary policy. But now, markets, which currently expect the MPC to leave interest rates on hold for at least another year and to take more than a decade …
27th August 2015
The pace of commercial property capital value growth eased again in July. But as the contribution from yield compression continues to fade, that was always to be expected. More encouragingly, there is little sign that the rental recovery is running out of …
Yesterday’s sharp falls in global equity markets and the value of UK real estate equities have not altered the outlook for the UK commercial property market over the next year or so. Commercial property values are likely to grow at a rather slower pace, …
25th August 2015
Investor demand for UK property shows few signs of waning. So with yields edging lower and occupier market fundamentals strong, the market is unlikely to slow materially in the second half of this year. However, with room for further yield compression …
18th August 2015
The slump in investment market activity in July was largely seasonal and needs to beseen in the context of June’s exceptional strength. As a result, there is little in thedata to suggest that the appetite for UK property is moderating. … Commercial …
17th August 2015
The gap between prime and non-prime yields has fallen in seven of the past eight quarters and by roughly a third over that period. Yet there is little in this data to ring alarm bells. After all, unlike in the mid-2000s, the latest data do not suggest …
13th August 2015
From a property perspective the latest dip in job creation needs to be offset against the corresponding rise in productivity and profits that it implies. And if we are right that the falls in employment will be reversed in due course, they should not have …
12th August 2015
Distribution warehouse rental value growth hit 2.9%y/y in Q2, a 15-year high. But with output in the distribution sector growing at above-average rates and real rental values more than 10% below a simple trend, we see little reason to expect a major …
6th August 2015
Activity rates in the commercial construction sector inched up in July, but are well below the levels that were typical in the middle of last year. However, with the outlook for occupier demand still solid and availability deteriorating in most sectors …
4th August 2015
The latest data on the commercial property sector offer few signs that values are approaching a peak, or even a plateau. A decent economic backdrop is supporting occupier demand and rental value growth and with investor appetite still robust, yields are …
31st July 2015
The latest upturn in construction sector workloads is encouraging. Yet such headline survey measures almost certainly overstate the contribution that the sector is likely to make to the wider recovery over the next few quarters, as well as the speed at …
30th July 2015
The spread between government bond yields in Germany and the UK is less indicative of the relative strength of the two countries’ economic outlooks than it was in the past. As such, in contrast to most of the last 15 years, the spread between German and …
29th July 2015
July’s Colliers/REC pricing survey contained evidence of a more cautious tone among the survey’s respondents. For one thing, for the first time in several years, a sizeable minority thought that it was a good time to sell London offices. Meanwhile, cuts …
With capital values buoyant, investor sentiment strong and reports that availability is becoming a pressing issue in many markets, June’s drop in net property lending is unlikely to be a sign that the lending environment has soured. It is more likely to …
Shopping centre rental values have yet to find a floor. But with rental values for in-town centres still struggling, while out-of-town rents appear to be staging a recovery, the data are most useful as a reminder of how polarised the retail property …
20th July 2015
Today’s employment data present the first fall in employment for two years. However, the broader trend is one of improvement in the labour market. In particular, strong earnings growth is likely to benefit the retail sector. … Employment data …
15th July 2015
Non-mainstream sectors took centre stage in another bumper month for property investment in June. Six deals involving petrol stations, hotels, leisure and student housing accounted for half of the £8.7bn total of deals struck. … Commercial property …
9th July 2015
As we move into the second half of the year, it seems a good time to review our 2015 forecasts and to assess whether they could yet be knocked off track by the ongoing saga in Greece. Fortunately, even after yesterday’s vote, the risks of a major downside …
6th July 2015
The latest CIPS/Markit construction PMI shows that supply in the commercial property sector is now rising at its fastest rate since 2008. But with most evidence also suggesting that availability is deteriorating rapidly, there is little danger yet of a …
2nd July 2015
April’s rise in net lending to the commercial property sector was more than reversed in May. But the small rise in development lending activity suggests that confidence in the lending environment is still improving. Thus further gains in overall net …
29th June 2015
Development activity in the industrial property sector has picked up sharply over the past year or so in response to a doubling in the pace of industrial rental value growth. But with the economy set to grow by between 2.5% and 3% for the foreseeable …
25th June 2015
The prevailing view in the markets that the MPC can raise interest rates extremely gradually over the coming years seems right to us. Granted, wage growth has begun to pick up and the Fed looks set to start raising interest rates from September. But we …
For a given rate of economic growth, boosting productivity requires a slower rate of job creation, which in turn will tend to moderate the rate of rental value growth. Over the medium term, however, any short-term softening in occupier markets would be …
18th June 2015
Employment rates are already at record highs, so the moderation in the pace of job creation in the three months to April is not an obvious cause for alarm, especially as the data show a healthy spread of new creation across sectors and regions. … …
17th June 2015
Offices accounted for the lion’s share of UK commercial property investment activity in May, and drove almost half of the increase from April. However, it was also notable that investor appetite for non-mainstream property, and in particular student …
11th June 2015
Taking 2015 to 2017 as a whole, further yield compression combined with steady growth in rental values should mean that South East offices deliver stronger capital value growth and average total returns than any of the main IPD sub-sectors. … South East …
9th June 2015
The surge in leisure services spending shown in the latest data is not as positive for the broader leisure sector as it first appears. Nevertheless, after tracking sideways for the past six years, the conditions are now in place to allow leisure rental …
5th June 2015
The stock of commercial property debt rose marginally in April, ending a run of 27consecutive monthly contractions. The data thus echo the recent DeMontfortfindings which suggest that the property lending environment has turned a corner. … Lending to …
2nd June 2015
May’s IPF Consensus survey shows that most forecasters now recognise that the commercial property market has more momentum than they previously thought. Yet despite the latest upgrades, we suspect that the Consensus is still too cautious about the outlook …
29th May 2015
The De Montfort University Lending Survey confirms anecdotal reports of an increasingly buoyant and competitive commercial property lending market. But it also suggests that lenders’ risk appetite is limited, with development finance and smaller ticket …
22nd May 2015
Schemes aiming to deliver a total of 4.4m square feet of new office space to Central London were launched in the past six months. That was the second highest level of development starts in 20 years. Nevertheless, there is little immediate risk that the …
21st May 2015
The outlook for the commercial property market is favourable and the recovery is likely to be extended over the forecast horizon. Yields will play a role by continuing to edge down, but consistent with the favourable prospects for economic growth and job …
18th May 2015
The start of the year has seen further improvement in the labour market, with unemployment falling further and real pay now growing strongly. This suggests that the positive momentum in rental value growth will be sustained. … Employment data …
13th May 2015
The value of commercial property deals struck in April slumped by 54%m/m. But the bulk of that decline can be accounted for by the fact that March’s total was boosted by two huge one-off deals. In fact, April’s total was only just lower than the figures …
11th May 2015
Gauging the impact of safe-haven demand on the pricing of Central London property is not easy and any estimates carry sizeable health warnings. But we think it is plausible that Central London office and retail yields incorporate a safe-haven premium that …
8th May 2015
April’s dip in the commercial construction PMI could be a sign that developers sense that the recovery in occupier demand is fading. But such a conclusion seems premature to us. Therefore, it is possible that slower growth in new supply will act to …
5th May 2015
The economy slowed in the first quarter of the year, but survey evidence typically indicates that activity and confidence strengthened again in March. Moreover, although core inflation took a step lower in March, there are few signs that consumers are …
29th April 2015
In contrast to this morning’s GDP data, the RICS commercial property survey implies that business confidence and activity levels are healthy. At the margin, this adds weight to our view that the slowdown in GDP in Q1 will prove temporary. … RICS …
28th April 2015
At face value, the RICS construction survey appears to show that commercial property development is expanding strongly, even if it did moderate a touch during the first quarter. Yet the improvement is coming off a very low base and activity levels on the …
23rd April 2015
The record low spread between industrial yields and the all-property average is not a sign that industrial property is too expensive. Rather it largely reflects the fact that retail yields are still comparatively high. If anything, relative to offices, …
22nd April 2015
