Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Job creation contracted for the first time since last October. However, the big picture is that the labour market data is still pointing to low, but positive rates of rental value growth next year. … Employment …
15th November 2017
In value terms, investment activity edged lower in October. However, it was encouraging that liquidity showed some tentative signs of improvement. What’s more, despite a smaller contribution from the Far East, net purchases by overseas investors are still …
14th November 2017
The MPC succeeded in striking a dovish tone as it raised Bank Rate for the first time in a decade. While the Committee didn’t frame the hike as “one and done”, it did convince investors not to expect a further increase until early 2019. We agree that …
UK commercial property looks to be on track to deliver total returns of approaching 10% this year, surpassing even our above-consensus forecasts. However, with interest rates now seemingly on a gently rising trajectory, capital value growth and thus …
9th November 2017
October’s improvement in the construction PMI confounded expectations. The improvement was broadbased, but led primarily by the commercial sector. … CIPS/Markit Construction PMI …
2nd November 2017
Reports that the Bank of England is assuming 75,000 office-based would shift away from London following Brexit paints a gloomy picture for office markets. However, not only is London less dependent on banking jobs than in the past, but any losses are …
31st October 2017
September’s figures reported an improvement in net lending to the UK’s commercial property sector. Nevertheless, in the grand scheme of things, the gains were modest. … Lending to commercial property …
30th October 2017
The slight uptick in economic activity, as well as the healthy signs from the monthly property data, bode well for the property segment. What’s more, given that any monetary policy tightening is likely to be small and gradual, the risks of a property …
27th October 2017
The RICS Commercial Survey showed that both tenant and investor demand improved during Q3. However, within the totals, industrial demand is running well ahead of the other parts of the market. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey …
26th October 2017
Driven primarily by part-time positions, job creation during the three months to August was half the level seen in July. Yet, the latest data is consistent with broadly stable rates of rental growth. … Employment …
18th October 2017
The latest poll from Thomson Reuters suggests that investor demand for UK property could be on the brink of a drop. Yet, a more comprehensive survey by Hodes Weill/Cornell University suggests that the weight of capital facing the UK’s property markets is …
17th October 2017
Mortgage credit availability rose in Q3, but banks appear to have retreated from the provision of riskier home loans. And credit availability to commercial property was broadly flat on the year. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
12th October 2017
Investment activity in September fell compared to August. However, not only did the £3.7bn total comfortably surpass the average figure for September in the previous 14 years, but it also brought the quarterly total to just over £12bn, 15% higher than the …
11th October 2017
The headline construction PMI fell back into contractionary territory, despite a relatively muted fall in the commercial sector. Even so, September’s commercial construction data suggests that rental values may fall next year, a conclusion that stands in …
3rd October 2017
Despite some reports of open-ended funds increasing their cash reserves, the data for net flows into such funds offer little support for the idea that investor sentiment towards commercial property has turned. … Is the tide turning for investor …
2nd October 2017
Net lending to commercial property contracted for a third consecutive month. While the fall was primarily down to standing investments, riskier development lending was in the red too. … Lending to commercial property …
29th September 2017
In contrast with the mixed signals on the economy, the post-referendum recovery in property markets has gathered momentum of late. Indeed, barring a sharp turnaround over the closing stages of 2017, the most recent monthly property data suggest that our …
27th September 2017
The jump in interest rate expectations and bond yields over the past week is consistent with our view that the MPC is poised to raise Bank Rate at its November meeting. And while higher rates will eventually be reflected in rising property yields, the …
21st September 2017
In contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail investment activity has continued to contract. This seems consistent with a soft retail rental outlook which seems unlikely to change quickly. However, with valuations considerably less stretched, …
19th September 2017
Today’s Labour Force Survey data painted a healthy picture for occupier markets. July’s data posted the largest three-month increase in employment since December 2015, as well as another fall in the unemployment rate. That said, with nominal wage growth …
13th September 2017
After a very weak July, August’s 17%m/m increase in the value of commercial property investment activity is encouraging. Nevertheless, the market still appears to be dependent on large deals and overseas investor demand. … Commercial property investment …
12th September 2017
On past form, the latest agency data suggest that IPD office rental values are on the cusp of a fall of at least 10%. However, such an outcome is best treated as a downside risk as the fall in prime rents seems to have run a little too far relative to …
11th September 2017
In contrast to some forecasters who have suggested that the pound could reach parity with the euro before the end of the year, we expect sterling to reverse some of its recent losses against the euro. For a start, we don’t share other forecasters’ …
6th September 2017
Unlike the manufacturing sector, construction activity failed to rebound in August. And within the total, activity in the commercial sector contracted for the second consecutive month. Therefore, it seems as though the economy’s weak start to the year has …
4th September 2017
In August, IPF Consensus forecasts for total returns in 2017 were revised up for the fourth consecutive quarter, to stand at 6.7%. But the figures for 2018 and 2019 were left more or less unchanged. The Consensus is factoring in sub-5% returns, thanks to …
1st September 2017
Net lending to commercial property by banks and building societies fell by over £1bn in July, following June’s fall of £240mn. While this might reflect a more cautious approach by financial institutions, the £172mn rise in net lending to developments …
30th August 2017
Economic indicators have painted a mixed picture for a couple of months. For example, the composite PMI pointed to a slight pick-up in GDP growth at the start of the third quarter, to perhaps 0.4%q/q. Yet, healthy job creation and a further fall in the …
29th August 2017
June’s LFS made for some positive reading. Wage and employment growth rose and the unemployment rate edged down. But the bigger picture is that real incomes are still under pressure, which should weigh on retail property for some time yet. … Employment …
16th August 2017
Commercial property activity fell in both value and number terms in July. Yet this drop was not particularly alarming given the seasonality in the data. But most importantly, there is little indication that overseas investors – the main engine of recent …
14th August 2017
The latest data on both the economy and property markets have done little to change our outlook. One exception is the industrial sector where, on the back of healthy occupier demand, we have upgraded our forecasts. With the economy growing at a modest (if …
10th August 2017
The CIPS/Markit Construction PMI dropped significantly in July. And while we agree that rental value growth is likely to slow, we suspect that the latest commercial balance is overstating the risk of a fall in rents next year. … CIPS/Markit Construction …
2nd August 2017
Net lending to commercial property by banks and building societies fell by £239m in June. This meant that during the second quarter as a whole, net lending to property came in virtually flat, at minus £11m. … Lending to commercial property …
31st July 2017
Today’s RICS Commercial Survey showed that occupier and investment demand present a subdued outlook for office and retail property. However, the industrial sector looks poised to outperform the rest of the market. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey …
27th July 2017
John Lewis’ announcement that it may utilise some store space to provide co-working office facilities is a reminder that department store tenant demand is soft. As such, while still high by past standards, we doubt that the yield gap between department …
25th July 2017
The fact that activity levels in both the leasing and investment markets has improved was encouraging. Both of these observations chime well with our view that the current, low but positive rates of capital value growth will be sustained over the coming …
21st July 2017
Today’s RICS Construction Survey for Q2 showed that private commercial and industrial construction activity reversed the gains made during the first quarter. … RICS Construction Market Survey …
20th July 2017
Unlike the rest of the commercial property market, rental value growth in the industrial sector has recently regained fresh momentum. There are also no signs that demand is set to ease, or that increased supply is doing more than keeping pace with that …
13th July 2017
Credit conditions in the residential mortgage market eased a touch in Q2. But with lenders’ risk appetites set to contract, Q3 may be a little tighter. Meanwhile, there is little evidence to suggest that credit conditions are shifting in the commercial …
The value of UK commercial property investment activity rose for the second month on the trot in June. But while encouraging, there are also good reasons to think that this is not the start of a much stronger trend. … Commercial property investment …
12th July 2017
May’s LFS survey was mixed. Job creation improved and the unemployment rate fell to another multi-decade low. However, the squeeze on real household incomes worsened. The implication is that the retail property sector is likely to suffer …
The dip in the commercial construction PMI in June only partially reversed the previous month’s rise. As such, it does not alter the impression that developers see little risk that the current softness in most occupier markets represents a major downside …
4th July 2017
Rising food prices are not a sign of growing pricing power for supermarket chains. Rather they are another sign of increased pressure on margins, implying that the unprecedented two-year decline in supermarket rental values almost certainly has further to …
30th June 2017
At £190m in May, net lending to the property sector more than reversed last month’s fall. Moreover, the broad-based nature of May’s improvement, along with lenders’ limited exposure to property assets, suggest that they are not unduly concerned about the …
29th June 2017
All in all, there was still little, if any, evidence to suggest that the Brexit process is having a major impact on property market sentiment or activity levels. And there was little to alter our view that rental value growth will drive muted, but …
23rd June 2017
Today’s labour market data were full of mixed signals. Job creation was healthy and consistent with gently rising rents at the all-property level. But, with the squeeze on real incomes intensifying, the prospects for retail property are less positive. … …
14th June 2017
After a subdued month in April, UK commercial property investment activity picked up in May. It was also encouraging that, at least in this months’ figures, there were tentative signs of improving liquidity. … Commercial property investment …
12th June 2017
It’s not hard to find bearish views on the prospects for UK commercial property. But neither real estate equity prices, nor equity market volatility provide compelling support for the bears. And with no sign of a recession or a surge in risk-free rates, …
8th June 2017
During the three quarters since the referendum, Rest of UK office rental values have done relatively little to counteract the yield-driven falls in capital values seen after the vote. However, survey evidence suggests that rental growth should turn more …
7th June 2017
Stock markets have shrugged off the uncertainty created by Brexit, with the FTSE 100 rising by 19% since the EU referendum last year. However, the key supports of the rally have now faded. First, the pound looks set to consolidate its recent gains, …
2nd June 2017
The Construction PMI for May provided a welcome surprise on the upside. And from a commercial property perspective, it provided the first indication that, in line with our view, rental value growth is likely to pick up in 2018. … CIPS/Markit Construction …
