Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The latest RICS global property survey points to some signs of life in European commercial property occupier markets. Unfortunately, however, rising tenant demand does not appear to be offsetting new supply and surveyors’ expectations for rental values, …
4th November 2010
One of the most striking aspects of Q3’s RICS global property survey was the marked improvement in surveyors’ expectations for German capital values. We find it hard to take issue with the new, more upbeat tone as it brings the survey broadly in to line …
3rd November 2010
The recovery in European investment volumes appears to have reached a plateau. Unfortunately, yesterday’s ECB Bank Lending Survey, which showed a further net tightening of credit standards to firms, together with the fact that the region faces a painful …
29th October 2010
The recovery in European commercial property investment volumes seen since early 2009 seems to have reached a plateau. Although euro-zone property assets still look relatively attractively priced compared to bonds and equities, restricted finance and …
28th October 2010
October’s fall in economic sentiment in the Czech Republic suggests that a recovery in occupier demand for commercial property is not yet imminent. Indeed, rental value prospects for office, retail or industrial property have not improved and we are …
25th October 2010
We suspect that Q3’s halt to Paris’ prime office rental recovery is a temporary blip on a generally upward trend. Indeed, although service sector sentiment has remained broadly flat for the past few months, firms appear to be gradually increasing …
21st October 2010
Q3’s sharp slowdown in the pace of Dutch retail yield falls supports our view that there is little value left in the market. Although sound public finances and a solid labour market are positive factors for the Dutch retail sector, fragile confidence and …
20th October 2010
The experience of the early 2000s was that the Brussels office market prospered in a weak macroeconomic environment. With the euro-zone economy now facing another protracted period of subtrend economic growth, we think that office rental values in …
14th October 2010
The relatively attractive pricing of the Polish commercial property market compared to markets in the West appears to have driven a surge in investment market activity. Looking ahead, we think that investment demand may remain buoyant, but there is …
13th October 2010
Commercial property occupier markets in most of non-euro-zone Europe appear to have bottomed out a little earlier than we had previously anticipated. Our forecasts now reflect this. Nevertheless, occupier market recoveries will be held back by weak …
6th October 2010
We suspect that euro-zone commercial property yields may fall a little further by the end of this year. However, the bulk of the investment market recovery may well be behind us. Subdued economic growth will prevent a rapid recovery in rental values any …
Compared to US Government bonds and Russian equities, as well as property markets in other countries, Russian property still appears to be attractively priced. As such, investment demand looks set to improve further in H2 2010 and we think that yields may …
1st October 2010
Yesterday’s disappointing Q2 Irish GDP figures support our view that the economy will stagnate at best over this year and next. Although commercial property prices have already fallen by more than 70%, suggesting that a floor may be close, the weak …
24th September 2010
Within Central & Eastern Europe, there have been some signs of a recovery in occupier demand, most notably in Poland. However, despite supply pipelines having been drastically reduced across the region, we do not think demand is yet strong enough to …
23rd September 2010
A shortage of supply in the Central London office market is likely to drive relatively strong rental growth this year and next. In Europe, however, although office development pipelines have also been scaled back, with typically high vacancy rates and …
16th September 2010
The fact that the euro-zone industrial recovery appears to be losing momentum does not bode well for industrial occupier demand or rental values across the region. As such, our forecasts that falls in industrial rents in H1 2010 will be extended in H2 …
14th September 2010
The outlook for office occupier demand looks to be considerably stronger in Warsaw than in Prague. What’s more, completion volumes in Warsaw are finally beginning to slow, suggesting that the vacancy rate could fall next year. As such, we continue to …
9th September 2010
The latest rise in Swedish interest rates may raise concerns that the nascent commercial property market recovery could slow. But that seems unlikely. For one thing, interest rates are still very low, while the pace of further tightening looks set to be …
8th September 2010
The increase in Spanish household spending in the first half of 2010 suggests that the outlook for Spanish retail property may be improving. However, we remain cautious. Among other things, with one-fifth of the workforce unemployed and the full impact of …
3rd September 2010
Recent economic data suggest that the export-led recovery in Germany is spreading to domestic demand. However, there are reasons to remain cautious and our view remains that the scope for the German retail market to outperform is limited. … Time to be …
1st September 2010
The recent sharp fall in Hungarian prime retail yields is encouraging. However, we suspect that the recovery may have got ahead of itself. In our view, the very weak consumer outlook and the potential for further exchange rate volatility suggest that …
25th August 2010
The fact that prime industrial yields in the Czech Republic are lagging the recovery in most of Emerging Europe does not square with the macro data. In addition, with prospects for rental value growth comparatively strong, it seems likely that investment …
23rd August 2010
Boosted by the low level of unemployment and relatively attractive pricing, strong demand among large institutional investors has pushed prime retail yields down in the Netherlands more so than anywhere else. However, in our view, it would be difficult to …
20th August 2010
The recovery in Stockholm’s prime office yields may have got off to a late start, but we do not think their underperformance relative to the neighbouring Nordic markets of Copenhagen and Oslo will continue. Now that it is clear that Sweden is enjoying a …
18th August 2010
The surprisingly strong rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 2010 is probably less supportive for occupier markets than it appears at first sight. For a start, the region remains vulnerable to a slowdown in global demand, while spare capacity should act as a brake …
13th August 2010
Investment market activity strengthened in the second quarter across the UK, Scandinavia and Emerging Europe with the result that initial yields fell a little further in a number of office, retail and industrial markets. While the spread between property …
10th August 2010
Compared to offices, history suggests that retail property yields in Paris are too low. The weak outlook for consumer spending and the stronger outlook for office rental value growth point to the same conclusion. But any normalisation in the retail/office …
5th August 2010
Our analysis of the recent recession confirms that the volatility of headline retail rents in Emerging Europe can be exacerbated by swings in the exchange rate. Indeed, we estimate that each 1% fall in the exchange rate pushed headline retail rental …
3rd August 2010
The gradual recovery in European commercial property investment volumes extended into Q2 2010. As a result, with the exception of Greece, property yields were either stable or fell slightly in all euro-zone markets over the quarter. But with escalating …
29th July 2010
The Q2 2010 RICS global commercial property survey points to a divergence in commercial property performance between Italy and the rest of the so-called “PIIGS”. That is consistent with our view that, although rental value decline in Italy is likely to be …
26th July 2010
The increase in Moscow office rental values in Q2 is likely to prove a one-off. Although the occupier market has seen a continued improvement over the past few quarters, we think that the main driving force – the economic recovery – is going to lose …
23rd July 2010
The fact that rises in Greek property yields have accelerated recently highlights the increasing perception of investment risk associated with the country. And with fears of a government default showing no signs of subsiding, risk premiums are likely to …
22nd July 2010
Recent data releases support our view that the Polish retail property market will outperform that of the Czech Republic over the next few years. Indeed, although we do not expect a blistering recovery in occupier demand in either market any time soon, the …
16th July 2010
Fading risk appetite among property investors may put the brakes on the current investment market recovery in Emerging Europe. Indeed, while recent falls in property yields have been encouraging, the pace of further falls is likely to slow or, in some …
13th July 2010
While it is not unreasonable to suggest the Spanish retail property market could be boosted by the national team’s World Cup success, unfortunately we think other factors will continue to provide far more significant influences on occupier demand. As …
12th July 2010
The emerging recovery in Swedish property yields looks set to continue in the near-term. Indeed, we now think that the economic outlook in Sweden is one of the brightest in Western Europe, while property valuations look relatively attractive. That said, …
8th July 2010
Following the plunge in May, June’s small rise in Spanish consumer confidence does little to improve the outlook for the Spanish retail property market. Indeed, with retail sales volumes unlikely to recover in the foreseeable future, occupier demand for …
6th July 2010
The euro-zone commercial property market outlook has been clouded by the sovereign debt crisis, but some markets are more exposed than others. Our latest forecasts envisage a growing divergence among member states. … Mixed economic growth prospects point …
1st July 2010
Since the previous Analyst, we have become a little more optimistic about the outlook for commercial property returns in 2010 and 2011. This mainly reflects the fact that, although the economic and occupier market outlook remains subdued, rental values …
We think that the nascent recovery in French office rental values probably has further to run. Indeed, with business confidence approaching long-run average levels and a risk of undersupply emerging, rental growth of around 6% this year looks plausible. …
23rd June 2010
Commercial property derivatives pricing may be giving too negative a steer on the outlook for French and German capital values. Indeed, in projecting flat or falling property prices, derivatives markets seem to be not only lagging developments on the …
22nd June 2010
Our recent GDP growth forecast downgrade for Romania has strong implications for its property market outlook. This Update analyses the prospects for rental values and yields this year and next. … Romania’s property outlook is …
18th June 2010
Our more upbeat forecasts for the Swiss economy relative to the euro-zone do not imply that Swiss property will continue to outperform. Indeed, we see yields staying put until 2012, meaning that its property market recovery will struggle to get off the …
14th June 2010
Despite a stronger recovery in German industrial production, the French industrial property market is performing better than Germany’s. While we suspect that the extent of that relative outperformance will ease over the next few quarters, we think it is …
10th June 2010
To date, Dutch office rental values have proved remarkably resilient to the sharp spike in vacancy rates. Yet, with demand still weakening and new supply still running at uncomfortably high levels, if anything, we now think that our forecast for a 2.6% …
8th June 2010
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone is bound to weigh heavily on the outlook for Emerging Europe, moderating, if not reversing, hopes for an occupier and investment market recovery. Thus, in our view, with the exception of Turkey, we suspect that …
3rd June 2010
The sharp fall in Belgian industrial rental values in Q1 was probably just a delayed response to the depth of the recession. In any event, we expect the Belgian economy to grow a little faster than the euro-zone average this year. Additionally, Belgian …
2nd June 2010
Although French retail rental values have barely fallen to date, we do not think that their resilience will last. With the economic recovery faltering, and figures released today showing that consumer confidence slipped back again in May, we expect rental …
27th May 2010
Some valuation measures indicate that Emerging European commercial property markets now offer good value. However, the deepening fiscal crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked drop in risk appetite. As a result, we remain cautious over Emerging …
25th May 2010
