Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The recent return of some international investors to commercial property markets in Spain and Italy seems to reflect the rapid turnaround in sentiment in both economies over the past year or so. Our view is that neither property market is yet out of the …
30th October 2013
Stockholm's office market appears to be in relatively good shape. Economic sentiment is rising, credit conditions for commercial property are strengthening, while this morning's decision by the Riksbank to hold interest rates steady means that monetary …
24th October 2013
Recent data pointing to a sharp upturn in the Polish economy bode well for a gentle recovery in retail and industrial capital values in 2014. But the office market faces rising vacancy rates and a still-substantial supply pipeline. Thus it may take a …
23rd October 2013
Third-quarter agency data show that, overall, office occupier market activity in Germany's major markets has continued to trend lower. But take-up levels remain relatively high, while the positive tone of the latest economic and survey data suggests that …
18th October 2013
There have been encouraging signs lately that international institutional investors might be returning to the Portuguese commercial property market. This would be consistent with the improvement in the economy over the past six months and the fact that …
15th October 2013
Over the next 18 months, Turkey’s shopping centre market faces a 20% rise in supply. Yet unlike 2008 and 2011, when supply rose by a similar margin, occupier market fundamentals should prove more resilient, thus helping to avert a repeat of the rental …
10th October 2013
The factors which have supported the sharp narrowing of the spread between Spanish and German government bond yields over the past year or so should also be supportive of Spanish property values. However, near-term constraints on economic growth mean that …
8th October 2013
The spreads between non-prime and prime yields in some of Europe’s core property investment markets have widened over the past few years. But without stronger evidence of a sustainable economic recovery in Continental Europe, there is not yet much scope …
3rd October 2013
Over the next 5-10 years, we think that capital values in the European logistics sector will be strongest in Hungary, Ireland and the UK, but also above average in Russia and Germany. … Logistics: where are the …
30th September 2013
The resilience of Dutch commercial property markets to very weak economic fundamentals over the past few years may finally be fading. Previous supports such as the solid labour market and an increased use of rental incentives are now unwinding. Capital …
26th September 2013
Last week’s data, which confirmed that the economy took another step forward in the second quarter, was welcome news for Irish property markets. But there was little sign of any material strengthening in the domestic economy. That suggests that the …
23rd September 2013
Changes to the legislation governing German Open-Ended Funds (GOEFs) this year seem to have been well received. The overall value of the sector has stabilised and new fund launches are being planned. Yet the legacy of the crisis is not over and we remain …
19th September 2013
September’s MPC minutes suggest that, despite the arguably disappointing impact of forward guidance, the Committee is happy with its policy stance. A resumption of quantitative easing (QE) before the end of the year now looks less likely, although we …
17th September 2013
Yesterday’s Q2 GDP data from Turkey suggest that retail occupier demand in Istanbul and Ankara is currently pretty strong. Against this backdrop, we think retail yields in both markets could fall substantially by end-2014. If we are right that consumer …
11th September 2013
Our forecasts envisage that by end-2017, office and retail capital values in Prague are unlikely to be materially higher than current levels. By contrast we think that industrial values might rise by around 8%. This reflects an assumption that, having …
10th September 2013
Unlike in Germany, regional labour market data from elsewhere in the euro-zone do not give much of a steer on the likely near-term paths of local office market vacancy rates. However, they do suggest that, in common with their national pictures, office …
6th September 2013
The main issue with UK regional indicators published in August was the poor economic performance that the Labour Force Survey ascribed to several regions, including London. Our view is that the LFS was probably giving a misleading impression, so this …
4th September 2013
The fundamental drivers of commercial property outside of the single currency region have not changed materially since our previous Analyst. However, a widespread rise in business sentiment has greatly reduced the chances of further falls in rental values …
28th August 2013
The economic outlook for the euro-zone has brightened since our previous Analyst, prompting us to increase our forecasts for commercial property capital values and total returns. Indeed, our less pessimistic view on growth prospects point to healthier …
The German economy seems to be getting back onto a solid footing. However, given the normal lags between developments in the economy and the property market, changes already seen in regional labour markets suggest that, over the next year, office vacancy …
22nd August 2013
The last few weeks have brought increased evidence that the Brussels office market is gaining popularity with national and international investors. For now, occupier market conditions remain pretty weak. But the economic outlook has brightened and our …
19th August 2013
The latest data suggest that occupier demand in the Warsaw office market is beginning to strengthen again. But with employment in the Polish capital still low and the near-term office development pipeline still large, our forecast for rents to fall by up …
15th August 2013
Signs of a renaissance in Italy’s commercial property investment market appear to be heavily reliant on investors targeting distressed property. To the extent that most investors are unwilling to buy without a discount to prevailing valuations, this may …
12th August 2013
With domestic demand still weakening, the near-term outlook for Bucharest’s logistics and retail property sectors is subdued. But there is some potential for office-based employment to rise from here, suggesting that Bucharest’s office market could start …
8th August 2013
The recent improvement in euro-zone business surveys is unlikely to mark the start of a strong and broad-based economic recovery. Nevertheless, by helping to underpin sentiment, it will increase thechances of an extended period of stability for euro-zone …
6th August 2013
The sharp fall in investment volumes in Emerging Europe in the second quarter may prove only temporary. But it also seems consistent with the drop in consensus forecasts for Poland and Russia. Elsewhere, growing momentum in the UK economy should help to …
1st August 2013
In contrast to most euro-zone markets, the downturn in Milan and Paris office rental values was extended in the second quarter. The comparatively high level of rents in each market, the rising trend in vacancy rates and the weak prospects for occupier …
30th July 2013
Despite recent signs that the euro-zone recession is easing, the tone of the latest occupier market data remains soft and there has been no observable upward shift in investment market activity. Even so, neither this nor the recent global financial market …
26th July 2013
Agency data show that prime euro-zone retail rental value growth came to an abrupt halt in Q2. With the underlying macroeconomic drivers of retail occupier demand still poor, we think that retail rents will now start to fall in most member states. Germany …
23rd July 2013
Preliminary data that show prime office yields in Brussels fell in Q2 are hard to square with the weak picture of underlying occupier demand. Given this, we would not be surprised if the fall in yields is revised away or reversed over the coming months. …
19th July 2013
Switzerland’s robust domestic economy is supporting retail occupier demand and rental values. By contrast, falling exports and slowing employment growth mean that the office and industrial occupier markets are in poorer health. We expect these trends to …
17th July 2013
Over the past five years, investors’ preference for property in Warsaw above Prague has been mirrored by yields in the Polish capital moving the lower of the two. But now that occupier market conditions in Poland have worsened and the outlook for both …
12th July 2013
Our view that logistics property in Germany will underperform the other main commercial property sectors over the coming years is underpinned by the fact that, in both an international and historic context, we think logistics yields look too low and rents …
9th July 2013
The structural slowdown in Russian economic growth suggests that commercial property rents will enter a lower growth phase. This is a concern given that sustained, decent rates of rental growth are likely to have been a key factor supporting convergence …
5th July 2013
News that the Irish economy is back in recession is a reminder that Dublin’s property market still faces significant headwinds. Indeed, all-property capital values in Dublin could yet suffer another modest reverse. But a complete relapse in Dublin’s …
2nd July 2013
The recent rise in bond yields is unlikely to feed automatically into higher European property yields. But to the extent that it increases concerns about the growth outlook and debt burdens, the upside risks to property yields are probably greatest in the …
26th June 2013
The post-credit crunch underperformance by logistics capital values in France relative to the office and retail sectors may leave scope for a period of outperformance. Yet this morning’s business survey data point to worsening economic conditions to come …
25th June 2013
Improvements in Spanish economic sentiment suggest that the recession has eased in the second quarter. Given that there is plenty of headroom for Spanish office and industrial capital values to rise from current low levels, the property market might be …
20th June 2013
The low level of Stockholm office yields reflects safe haven demand and Sweden’s comparatively strong economy. These factors are likely to support yields for the next year or so. On a five-year view, however, the balance of probability points to Stockholm …
19th June 2013
The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in Emerging European currencies and rise in local financial …
13th June 2013
Growing civil unrest is one factor which we have previously highlighted as a risk to the medium-term outlook for Turkish commercial property returns. For now, we are sticking with our central, relatively upbeat view. But with no sign yet that protests are …
12th June 2013
Recent Czech data seem to show that activity in the external sector is on the up. That bodes well for Czech industrial property. But the domestic economy is still fragile and demand from consumer-facing occupiers is likely to be lacklustre. Thus, while …
6th June 2013
The growing differential between office and retail yields in Brussels does not seem sustainable. But if, as we suspect, it primarily reflects investors’ views that retail has the best defensive characteristics given the uncertain economic outlook for …
5th June 2013
Yesterday’s cut in official interest rates in Hungary is good news for property markets in Budapest. But we are sceptical that the latest easing cycle is sustainable. And if, as we expect, interest rates go into reverse later this year, Budapest retail …
29th May 2013
The low level of prime office yields reported in Zurich could be a sign of strong investor confidence in that city. We suspect, however, that they have been artificially depressed by a small number of exclusive prime deals concluded during a period of …
28th May 2013
The outlook for economic growth in the economies outside the single currency region are typically a little brighter than for those within it. Hence we are a little bit more upbeat about near-term occupier and investment market prospects in Emerging Europe …
23rd May 2013
The euro-zone recession shows few signs of easing and we have yet to see its full impact on European property values. At the aggregate level, capital values have been supported by further small falls in yields in some core markets and the strength of …
The impact of the 2009 Polish economic slowdown on commercial property prices was exaggerated by the huge boom in rents and ‘over-convergence’ of property yields that characterised the preceding few years. Now that rents and yields in Warsaw look neither …
15th May 2013
In contrast to our forecast for a modest fall during 2013, German office rental values began the year by posting another rise. Yet with economic sentiment in Germany deteriorating and office take-up falling by a third in the first quarter, we suspect that …
13th May 2013
The signs from the first quarter are that, while the trend for investment demand in Emerging Europe might have turned the corner, in Scandinavia it remains stagnant. The latest survey and hard economic data point to more of the same in the current …
9th May 2013
