Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Despite only tepid economic growth in Belgium, strengthening occupier demand has caused industrial vacancy rates to fall. With vacancy at frictional levels, prime rental value growth will soon widen to the Brussels market, further supporting positive real …
29th October 2014
A low volume of “bad asset” sales helps to explain why Italy’s investment growth has lagged behind other countries. Yet the recent bank stress tests, combined with changes to the Italian REIT structure, should be the catalyst required to kick-start this …
28th October 2014
Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the risks to logistics property pricing outside of the core …
22nd October 2014
The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and indeed, pricing, will not be negatively impacted in …
21st October 2014
With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest impact on property to be in the office sector, where upwards …
15th October 2014
In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production data increases the risk that occupier market recoveries …
14th October 2014
Despite a weak outlook for the occupier markets, we expect Swiss prime office yields to mark time at their current levels for at least another 12 to 18 months as bond yields stay close to historic lows and investment activity from local pension funds …
9th October 2014
Gradually improving economic growth and tightening supply in prime locations is set to produce rental growth in the next 12 months. With industrial yields elevated relative to both office yields and risk-free rates, the prospects for this sector make …
8th October 2014
Net absorption is likely to fall well short of the increase in new supply in the Prague office market over the next couple of years. Therefore, we have downgraded our rental growth forecasts for the next few years and no longer expect a return to positive …
1st October 2014
The significant fall in the Turkish lira, coupled with a consumer-sector slowdown, will ensure that landlords of secondary schemes continue to face downwards pressure on rents. However, Turkey’s prime high streets are expected to achieve rental growth of …
30th September 2014
The relationship between retail sales growth and prime high street rental growth in Italy has broken down in recent years as occupier demand has been driven mainly by luxury retailers. Accordingly, we do not believe that the weak consumer outlook for …
25th September 2014
Given an environment of relatively muted economic growth in the Netherlands and its main trading partners, we think that office property returns have more potential to deliver a positive surprise than industrial or retail, thanks in part to the greater …
24th September 2014
The short-term blip in German growth will not significantly impact office markets and, although development pipelines are growing, we expect to see continued office rental value growth in the next few years as absorption of new space remains strong. … Do …
16th September 2014
Despite weak economic and employment growth, prime office rents in Helsinki should rise a little further in the next couple of years. Further ahead, however, centrally-located office markets may then underperform emerging out-of-town locations. … What …
15th September 2014
Facing some of the highest industrial build costs in Europe, developers are unlikely to find it profitable to speculatively construct industrial space in Sweden in the next few years. Therefore, with vacancy already tight and demand set to improve, we …
11th September 2014
Today’s historically low Belgian retail yields cannot be explained by strong rental growth prospects. Rather, in a market with a high proportion of international retailers, investors’ preference for low risk investments have been key. But this is likely …
10th September 2014
Provided that Hungary’s apparent slowdown in the pace of economic growth is short-lived, industrial rental values are more likely to continue to mark time over the next few quarters than to fall. But it may take a year or so before vacancy rates drop far …
4th September 2014
Over the first half of the year, capital values in the Emerging European commercial property markets were little changed, while values in non-euro-zone Western markets edged a little higher. Over the next 18 months or so, we expect the outperformance of …
3rd September 2014
The euro-zone’s economic problems show few signs of easing and a rapid recovery in economic growth and job creation over the next few quarters seems unlikely. The good news is that the dip in bond yields over the first half of the year has lent additional …
The recent sharp drop in Portuguese property yields has not been excessive. But with yields no longer at a level that is obviously too high and the economic outlook still fragile, yield impact, capital value growth and total returns are all poised for a …
28th August 2014
Recent, disappointing euro-zone economic data reaffirm our view that a meaningful, demand-driven commercial property rental upturn is not yet on the horizon. Given a looming floor for yields, this means that the near-term outlook for capital values across …
21st August 2014
To date, the stronger recovery in office-based employment in Barcelona has yet to be reflected in a rise in rental values. But over the next couple of years, we suspect that rents in Barcelona will rise a touch more rapidly than in Madrid. … Will office …
19th August 2014
The recent fall in office take-up across the main CEE markets is a concern given the region’s large office development pipelines. But at the same time, the recent strength of office-based employment growth should drive occupier demand higher over the …
14th August 2014
Solid Norwegian retail sales growth over the past few years seems to explain the rise in Oslo retail rental values. Granted, other factors such as changing retail trends are also at play. Nevertheless, the recent slowdown in retail sales growth means that …
12th August 2014
Parisian office take-up grew by 55%y/y in the second quarter, but fell in three of the top four German cities, including a 45%y/y fall in Frankfurt. Nevertheless, the underlying weakness of the French economy means that Parisian take-up could yet drop …
7th August 2014
Economic indicators in the non-euro-zone Western European economies were generally positive in Q2, but there are signs that growth slowed across the board in Emerging Europe. That wasn’t enough to put off investors however, with CEE Q2 investment volumes …
6th August 2014
Economic indicators paint a mixed picture of the euro-zone recovery. On the one hand, the situation in the peripheral economies is improving. But at the same time, growth in the core economies appears to be faltering. As a result, there was relatively …
1st August 2014
We envisage only a modest improvement in office occupier demand in the Netherlands over the next year or two as economic growth and job creation disappoint. Yet office rents are likely to drift higher as occupier demand focuses on the limited supply of …
28th July 2014
Poland’s strengthening labour market and rising consumer confidence bode well for retail occupier demand in Krakow and Warsaw. And, with little new supply in the pipeline, the prospects for rental growth in both cities look positive. … Rental growth in …
24th July 2014
Belgium’s weak economic fundamentals mean it sits near the bottom of the rankings in terms of core euro-zone commercial property investment destinations. While Italy suffers from an even weaker economic backdrop, the fact that the property market did not …
22nd July 2014
The latest data showing that Dublin’s employment and housing market recovery are running ahead of the rest of Ireland bode well for retail occupier demand in the Irish capital. And, with tight supply conditions, and yields still high relative to other …
17th July 2014
Recent data confirm that a slowdown in euro-zone export orders has led to slowing of industrial production growth in the CEE region. Nevertheless, with rental values yet to rebound from post-crisis lows, and given scope for further yield compression, the …
14th July 2014
Over the past six years, office-based employment growth in Munich has outperformed the other major German cities. In contrast, job creation in Frankfurt has been below par. This helps to explain the relative underperformance of office rental value growth …
10th July 2014
France’s large shopping centre pipeline is consistent with the below average level of existing stock. Although it is unlikely to result in a supply overhang, given the weak retail demand fundamentals it is another reason to expect French retail rents to …
9th July 2014
Subdued take-up combined with speculative development mean that the short-term risks for rental values in Geneva and particularly Zurich lie to the downside. Nevertheless, with GDP set to grow strongly and most sectors looking to hire more workers, rental …
3rd July 2014
Ireland, Portugal, Hungary and Romania all registered strong improvements in JLL’s 2014 Global RealEstate Transparency Index. As such, in these countries the scope for yields to narrow seems to haveimproved a touch due to the increased potential for a …
2nd July 2014
Temporary factors seem to be behind the recent strength of Hungarian retail sales growth, while the relatively high risk premium for Budapest retail yields seems merited. As such, over the next year or two there seems little potential for strong gains for …
27th June 2014
We expect household spending growth in Norway to be subdued by past standards as households grapple with exceptionally high levels of debt. Coupled with last year’s double-digit rental value increases, this implies little if any scope for further gains in …
25th June 2014
Based on historical patterns alone, it might seem that there is ample scope for a strong rebound in rental values in both Dublin and Lisbon. Yet once other economic factors are taken into account, the potential for a large rise in Lisbon rental values …
18th June 2014
Paris industrial occupier conditions continue to be challenging. Yet the increasing need for modern stock could still drive rental growth. And, with increased investor appetite for logistics exposure, over the next year or two further yield compression …
12th June 2014
Last year’s fall in Bucharest capital values seems at odds with Romania’s strong economic growth. But it does appear consistent with the large degree of spare capacity generated by the prior economic downturn and a pre-crisis development boom. …
11th June 2014
Euro-zone occupier markets stand to benefit as economic growth becomes broader based across the region. Yet while property investment in most countries should increase as a result, over the next year there are a number of reasons to expect Germany to …
5th June 2014
Despite dropping by 40% since 2008, we are not convinced that prime rental values in the main Spanish office markets are now obviously too low. While we do envisage a recovery over the next few years, with rents forecast to grow by an average of 3% per …
3rd June 2014
Recent data suggest that the Turkish economy is in good health, and beginning to show signs of a welcome rebalancing. However, as a consequence, retail sales are starting to suffer from measures to reduce credit growth. Such a slowdown will increase the …
30th May 2014
A surge in Austrian property investment has helped to drive Vienna office and retail yields to record lows. These yields will not be sustainable once interest rates and bond yields normalise. But given how well occupier markets have performed since the …
28th May 2014
Over the next few years, a gradual recovery in economic activity should support rising occupier demand and rental values in most non-euro-zone European commercial property markets. But with high levels of spare capacity still evident in many markets, that …
22nd May 2014
We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral economies begins to unwind. Yet the predominantly …
In the past few quarters, modest gains in services employment have helped to put a floor under Milan office rents. But the most recent employment expectations data have weakened and we doubt that the Italian economy as a whole will grow at all this year. …
15th May 2014
Despite the slowdown in industrial production, the outlook for euro-zone logistics property remains positive. In particular, the improved outlook for consumers, as well as the growing penetration of e-commerce, will boost logistics occupier demand. Yet …
12th May 2014
Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul offices and Prague logistics saw yields drop by more than …
8th May 2014
