Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Irish household debt looks high relative to both international and historical comparisons. Yet servicing costs are low, and rising house prices will boost net worth. Together with the positive economic outlook, that suggests consumption should improve. …
31st March 2015
A more balanced economy and improvements in public institutions have reduced the risk of investing in Romania. And, given that industrial yields remain close to 10% despite strong levels of activity in the occupier market, there seems ample scope for …
26th March 2015
Euro-zone consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2007. While the long-term consumption outlook remains challenging, elevated sentiment should nevertheless help support retail rental value growth in 2015. The biggest winners look set to be the …
24th March 2015
The ECB’s QE programme will be a modest boon for some financial firms. And it should help to sustain the recent rise in financial sector confidence. In turn, that should feed through into occupier demand in Frankfurt. As such, we suspect rents will rise …
19th March 2015
A gradual recovery in Dutch house prices will support retail sales growth in the Netherlands. This will drive a rise in prime retail rents in 2015 in both Amsterdam and Rotterdam. However, the slow deleveraging process is likely to prevent rapid rates of …
17th March 2015
Low inflation and historically low interest rates in the Nordic region will support real wage growth and rising house prices in every market bar Finland. With consumer spending growth set to benefit, particularly in Sweden, we envisage solid rates of …
13th March 2015
Historically, all-property yields in Madrid have tended to be higher than those in Milan. Yet over the past year, that spread has reversed. Given Spain’s stronger economic prospects and the outlook for decent rental growth in Madrid, over the coming years …
11th March 2015
With monetary policy being loosened across Europe, we expect bond yields to hover close to their current levels. This will continue to drive investors into higher-yielding asset classes, such as real estate, where the yield premium over bonds is close to …
6th March 2015
Recent economic developments in the euro-zone suggest increased scope for yield compression in commercial property markets. As such, in our latest Analyst we have increased our forecasts for capital value growth across most markets. … QE to boost …
4th March 2015
Although French employment growth is forecast to remain lethargic, the limited development pipeline and occupiers’ preference for modern, centrally-located space will drive an improvement in the balance between supply and demand in the Paris CBD. As such, …
26th February 2015
Weak economic fundamentals are leading to a growing divergence in the performance of Helsinki property types. While the wider market is likely to struggle further, CBD rents are set to rise gradually and strong investor demand for these assets will ensure …
23rd February 2015
Dublin office take-up reached a seven-year high in 2014, helping to drive rental values up by 34%. And, with the economic outlook strong and office supply conditions tightening rapidly, 2015 looks set to be characterised by another year of strong rental …
19th February 2015
A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big exception was Moscow, where occupier markets declined …
18th February 2015
Euro-zone commercial property investment volumes reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2014. Such strong investment flows meant that competition for assets was strong, which in turn led to yields narrowing in many markets. With property values …
13th February 2015
Brussels office vacancy has been falling, but this is mostly attributable to the conversion of obsolete stock to residential uses, rather than expansionary activity. And with economic growth in Belgium appearing to falter in recent months, we have cut our …
10th February 2015
Calculating implied yield expectations from RICS commercial property survey results suggests that respondents believe yields are close to their troughs in most office markets. Yet given that the spreads of office yields over bonds are close to record …
5th February 2015
As oil prices have continued to fall, the prospects for economic growth and occupier demand in the Norwegian property markets have softened. However, with the krone now beginning to look cheap, growing demand from international investors will compete …
3rd February 2015
Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty complicates our forecasts, but a further fall in all-property …
29th January 2015
The real impact of the ECB’s new QE programme on GDP growth and occupier demand will initially be stymied by the Greek election results and the ensuing debt re-negotiations. However, investors will be further driven from low-yielding fixed income assets …
27th January 2015
The growing risk of a deflationary spiral means the Polish Central Bank is likely to reduce interest rates to support demand. But the fall in the zloty against the Swiss franc could nevertheless dampen occupier demand for retail and office space, as …
21st January 2015
Last week’s substantial Swiss franc appreciation has significantly dented the outlook for economic growth and occupier demand. It has also made Swiss property look even more expensive, especially to foreign buyers. Accordingly, Swiss property markets are …
20th January 2015
With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong growth in 2015. Further ahead, however, constrained …
15th January 2015
Despite Germany’s recent slowdown, logistics operators and customers report that market conditions are above average. And, despite our forecasts for overall soft economic growth this year, trade and consumption should fare relatively well, thus helping to …
14th January 2015
Strong growth in Italian logistics occupier market activity suggests that rental values may finally have found a floor. Yet with the Italian economy set to stagnate this year, and with ample spare capacity, there’s little to suggest that rents will now …
9th January 2015
Despite growing concerns about the euro-zone economic outlook, we expect rental growth to improve in 2015. Indeed, with the bund yield and the euro both falling further in the last month, there may be a small upside risk to capital value growth from lower …
6th January 2015
Given below-trend consumer spending growth in the Czech Republic until mid-2016, the short-term outlook is for only limited growth in retail rental values. While stronger growth will then push rents up faster, these gains will fail to match the rental …
22nd December 2014
The outlook for consumption growth in the Southern peripheral euro-zone economies is fragile. Yet there seems potential for rents to rise, given that the current level offers decent value for retailers. … What’s the outlook for peripheral retail rental …
18th December 2014
The subdued outlook for German GDP growth suggests that occupiers will be cautious with regard to expansion plans in 2015. Nevertheless, relatively tight office and retail supply conditions imply that rental values should continue to rise. … Subdued …
17th December 2014
Historically low bond yields and a gradually improving rental growth outlook should mean that prime office yields set new lows in this cycle. However, in the absence of frenzied lending on Danish real estate and above-trend growth, the retail and …
11th December 2014
The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems increasingly likely that prime property yields can continue …
8th December 2014
Further monetary easing from the ECB is unlikely to be decisive enough to put the euro-zone on a stronger growth trajectory, implying that the outlook for occupier markets is subdued. Nevertheless, with euro-zone bond yields set to stay lower for longer, …
4th December 2014
Recent cuts to our Bund yield forecasts reflect our view that the euro-zone economy will struggle to gain traction over the next year or two. Yet, on balance, by creating the scope for property yields to edge lower still, they are likely to give a further …
2nd December 2014
Polish retail sales growth will continue to improve as labour market conditions strengthen. While this will support further retailer expansion, the volume of shopping centre space being developed and extended will dampen rental growth, particularly …
28th November 2014
A weak economic outlook for the euro-zone means that we do not expect particularly strong rental growth in the coming years. But, with interest rates on hold and bond yields expected to stay low, prime property in the region will see further yield falls …
27th November 2014
Italy’s weak economic outlook suggests that occupier demand in Milan will continue to be driven by companies seeking to consolidate space. As such, over the coming quarters the vacancy rate will probably rise further. That leaves little potential for …
20th November 2014
Office rental values in Vienna have ticked up over 2014 despite weak take-up. That seems to be down to the low availability of modern office space, as companies seek efficiency savings in light of the subdued economic growth outlook. Equally, however, a …
19th November 2014
Economic indicators generally pointed to slower growth across both Western European and Emerging European economies in Q3. That helps to explain why occupier market data were soft, with rents unchanged in most cities. Yield changes were more numerous, and …
14th November 2014
The decline in Russia’s macroeconomic outlook suggests that Moscow occupier demand will fall further. With an influx of new supply also undermining rental values, and property yields set to come under pressure from rising interest rates, the outlook for …
13th November 2014
There are a number of reasons to think that the German office occupier market is stronger than third quarter take-up data suggest. And, with vacancy rates low and the majority of upcoming developments already pre-let, the outlook for rental values remains …
7th November 2014
Economic indicators point to a slowing of the euro-zone economic recovery, particularly in the core economies. Nevertheless, the search for property investment opportunities has carried on unabated, with total euro-zone investment reaching its highest …
6th November 2014
Despite only tepid economic growth in Belgium, strengthening occupier demand has caused industrial vacancy rates to fall. With vacancy at frictional levels, prime rental value growth will soon widen to the Brussels market, further supporting positive real …
29th October 2014
A low volume of “bad asset” sales helps to explain why Italy’s investment growth has lagged behind other countries. Yet the recent bank stress tests, combined with changes to the Italian REIT structure, should be the catalyst required to kick-start this …
28th October 2014
Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the risks to logistics property pricing outside of the core …
22nd October 2014
The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and indeed, pricing, will not be negatively impacted in …
21st October 2014
With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest impact on property to be in the office sector, where upwards …
15th October 2014
In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production data increases the risk that occupier market recoveries …
14th October 2014
Despite a weak outlook for the occupier markets, we expect Swiss prime office yields to mark time at their current levels for at least another 12 to 18 months as bond yields stay close to historic lows and investment activity from local pension funds …
9th October 2014
Gradually improving economic growth and tightening supply in prime locations is set to produce rental growth in the next 12 months. With industrial yields elevated relative to both office yields and risk-free rates, the prospects for this sector make …
8th October 2014
Net absorption is likely to fall well short of the increase in new supply in the Prague office market over the next couple of years. Therefore, we have downgraded our rental growth forecasts for the next few years and no longer expect a return to positive …
1st October 2014
The significant fall in the Turkish lira, coupled with a consumer-sector slowdown, will ensure that landlords of secondary schemes continue to face downwards pressure on rents. However, Turkey’s prime high streets are expected to achieve rental growth of …
30th September 2014
