Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The Dutch retail sector is grappling with changing consumer habits and will struggle to provide a positive return to investors. But, with online sales set to grow rapidly and supply chains still adjusting, we expect logistics property to perform well in …
11th November 2019
Although occupier demand appears to be holding up in Germany, a combination of structural and cyclical factors has weighed on retail rents. And with meagre economic growth expected until at least the middle of next year, the prospects for retail rents are …
6th November 2019
Office-to-residential conversions in the Nordic capitals have started to lose their appeal given the pick-up in office capital values and softening in house prices. However, we don’t think that this poses a major risk to our forecast for relatively strong …
1st November 2019
While the risk of a no deal Brexit has diminished, lingering uncertainty and structural headwinds are likely to put downward pressure on prime retail rents in Dublin over the next two years. After holding up relatively well compared to its euro-zone …
29th October 2019
As valuations have improved this year and investors have become willing to accept lower yields, demand for quality Paris assets has ballooned, most likely driving a record year for French investment. This has begun to push prime yields lower and we now …
23rd October 2019
We expect the upturn in consumer confidence in Greece this year to feed through to a pick-up in retail sales growth, supporting retailer demand in Athens. Coupled with further yield falls, Athens high street capital values are set to significantly …
18th October 2019
The outperformance of Budapest’s office sector is coming to a close, but we still expect the retail and industrial sectors to beat their CEE peers in terms of total returns. Hungary’s economy has weathered the euro-zone slowdown so far, but we think that …
17th October 2019
Demand for Swedish property has been on a tear this year, even as the economy has faltered. This likely reflects investor expectations that growth will be supported by even looser monetary policy over the next few years. In this environment, competition …
11th October 2019
While Paris prime retail rents rose in 2018, we doubt this marks the start of a prolonged upward trend. With tourist flows set to stagnate due to a weak global economy, rents will not rise by much before 2023, but the continued attraction of Europe’s …
9th October 2019
South Korean capital flows into European commercial property have surged so far this year. Against the backdrop of cheap credit and robust fundamentals in many markets, these flows look set to continue for at least another couple of years. However, …
3rd October 2019
There has been a dramatic expansion in the co-working office sector globally over the last five years. As these operators use a different approach to traditional landlords, this brings new risks to office markets, though we feel it is probably too soon to …
2nd October 2019
A further downgrade to the euro-zone growth outlook means that additional monetary loosening is on the cards. While this doesn’t substantially shift our expectations for property yields over the next few years, it will keep the supply of capital strong …
27th September 2019
Following a bold start to the year, office take-up in Barcelona looks set to record its strongest year since 2005 which, coupled with falling vacancy rates, should boost rental growth. Indeed, Barcelona is set to outperform its peers for the next few …
25th September 2019
Executive Summary – Our new forecasts reflect Scandinavian prime office yields falling in 2020 and into 2021, on the back of our lower bond yield profile. But retail property in the region faces slight yield rises as risk premia rise. In emerging Europe, …
20th September 2019
Overview – With the euro-zone slowdown underway, we think that the ECB will loosen monetary policy before the year is out, meaning bond yields are set to remain negative for some time. As a result, yield compression in the office and industrial sectors …
11th September 2019
Plummeting bond yields in 2019 have dramatically improved property valuations, supporting the outlook for property prices. Indeed, we now think that euro-zone prime office yields can extend their falls over the next few years, taking the total shift in …
28th August 2019
A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the lowest proportion since the end of 2017. With bond yields …
23rd August 2019
After almost a decade of ultra-low interest rates and rising real estate valuations, concerns have been voiced about the outlook for property. In our view, these worries are not completely unfounded and returns are likely to moderate, but crash fears are, …
21st August 2019
Slower growth in both developed and emerging economies has started to filter through into property occupier markets, with office demand generally lower than a year ago and fewer cities registering rental value increases in the retail and industrial …
19th August 2019
There has been a gradual slowing in rental growth in the last couple of quarters, with a particularly large drop-off in retail rental growth. This has been echoed in the investment market, with all-property yields falling at marginal rates and retail …
As consumer spending growth slows in Poland, we expect retail spending to slow. The effect of this on physical retail outlets will be compounded in secondary locations by a growing share of sales migrating online, as well as the full implementation of the …
12th August 2019
The latest data for German offices suggest a better-than-expected start to 2019, as a result of solid employment growth and tightening supply. This has led us to revisit our office forecasts for the top cities, though we still expect a slowdown of …
5th August 2019
Commercial property investment activity looks likely to drop back slightly from the highs seen last year. But, rather than pointing to a downturn in pricing, we believe that this reflects investors re-evaluating the implications of the softer …
1st August 2019
We have upgraded our forecasts for Portugal’s economy and now expect growth to be above trend in 2019 and 2020. Along with a halving in the size of the Lisbon office development pipeline in the next few years, this has led us to upgrade our rental growth …
29th July 2019
Since last July, the development pipeline in Brussels has grown and prospects for economic growth and thus, occupier demand have nudged lower. While the low availability of Grade A stock will support prime office rental values, Brussels has lost its …
22nd July 2019
With bond yields falling, euro-zone property yield spreads have widened and remain high by historical standards. Admittedly, not all markets enjoy low bond yields, but even in Italy, where spreads have narrowed the most, we do not see any immediate upward …
18th July 2019
The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents already coming under upward pressure due to rising land and …
16th July 2019
IPF Consensus office rent forecasts for 2019 were generally upgraded in their latest iteration, with central Europe seeing a particularly large rise. We also made widespread upgrades to our forecasts in the same six-month period. While our overall …
10th July 2019
With euro-zone bond yields falling, this creates the potential for a further compression of property yields. In our view, there will not be much of an immediate impact, though it is becoming more likely that any upturn in euro-zone property yields further …
5th July 2019
Paris office take-up is likely to drop back a little this year, but with economic growth staying steady, it’s unlikely to fall off a cliff. A fairly restricted supply outlook means that vacancy can stay close to current lows over the next few years, …
4th July 2019
Prague prime high street yields ticked up in Q1 on the back of stretched pricing. Yet, given that bond yields have fallen and the next move for interest rates is expected to be downwards, we think that this will be the full extent of the correction, and …
25th June 2019
The poor performance of retail is the main story in Scandinavian and Swiss markets, contrasting with solid industrial and office returns. In emerging Europe, the retail sector is expected to do better, thanks to solid rental growth and yield compression. …
21st June 2019
With the ECB likely to loosen monetary policy before too long, government bond yields look set to stay at very low levels for some time. As a result, we think that yield compression has a little further to run this year and next. That is, with the …
18th June 2019
Concerns about rental growth prospects appear to be behind rising prime shopping centre yields. While we anticipate high street yields to rise also, a smaller correction will see the yield spread widen further. … Shopping centre yield spread over high …
5th June 2019
With Russian government bond yields expected to continue falling this year, we think that the rise in Moscow office yields in Q1 will prove temporary and that they will end the year at 9%, down from 9.3%. … Rise in Moscow office yields to be …
30th May 2019
Lower government bond and equity dividend yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property assets in Q1. Indeed, less than half of the 93 property markets now appear overvalued, with the office sector recording the largest improvement. With …
29th May 2019
A further slowdown in the rate of yield compression suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about pricing at this late stage of the cycle. We expect this to continue, especially given the softer economic environment. Euro-zone office and …
24th May 2019
Occupier demand is strong in all three sectors, with solid economic growth supporting expansion, although we expect this to slow through the course of the year, dampening rental growth in all sectors. Retailers are facing pressures on costs and, with …
Prime office yields in Berlin have been stable over the past 18 months, in spite of strong rental growth expectations. With tighter monetary policy now some way off, and yields on assets with a similar level of risk back at historical lows, we think …
17th May 2019
Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. … Have Warsaw office rents really turned a …
14th May 2019
In spite of healthy occupier demand of late, poor rental growth prospects mean that total returns from Dublin offices will continue to be amongst the lowest in the euro-zone. … Returns from Dublin offices to slip …
10th May 2019
Western European office rents grew by 5.3% p.a. in 2016-18. We expect them to grow by little more than that over the next three years combined , as occupier demand slows and development completions pick up. This will see the sector’s rental growth …
2nd May 2019
A period of low, but stable growth and historically low interest rates will be supportive of demand for French assets over the next few years. While the retail sector is seeing evidence of some re-pricing, continued growth in demand for logistics assets …
26th April 2019
Limited availability and a small pipeline will support further logistics rental growth in Barcelona. As a result, total returns will outperform those of Madrid and be amongst the highest in the euro-zone. … Rental growth to boost Barcelona logistics …
25th April 2019
With prime rents in Rotterdam expected to grow by 7.5% in the next three years, we expect strong investor demand for the city to drive some of the largest office sector yield falls in Europe. This will see Rotterdam produce total returns of 10% p.a. in …
18th April 2019
Demand for CBD space is starting to reignite prime rental growth in Geneva and Zurich. But a weakening economy and competition from new, well-connected developments will limit further gains in rents. … Swiss office rents to rise, but challenges …
17th April 2019
The continued growth of Copenhagen’s logistics market, set against its low vacancy rate and limited new supply, means that it is one of our strongest markets for both rental growth and yield falls in the next two years. What’s more, over the full forecast …
12th April 2019
A weak economic environment, and occupiers prepared to look outside traditional industrial locations which offer better value for money, will hold back the growth in prime industrial rents. But tight industrial availability around Germany’s main urban …
11th April 2019
Driven by falls in capital values, total returns from office and retail assets in Italy are forecast to be at the bottom of the euro-zone pack. Industrial returns will be better, but still just below the euro-zone average. … Returns from Italian assets to …
4th April 2019
Our latest forecasts paint a bright picture for Stockholm office returns over the next few years, supported by “lower for longer” bond yields and another upgrade to rental value growth. … Stockholm offices deserve renewed …
2nd April 2019
