Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Overview – Following upward revisions to our forecasts for policy rates and bond yields, we have raised our forecasts for prime property yields in Europe and now expect increases of around 20-25bps by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, despite a slightly …
27th March 2025
To see how our latest European property forecasts stack up against the other regions we cover and against other asset classes, please see our new Global Returns Dashboard here . Overview – The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will …
12th December 2024
After two disappointing years, recent data suggest Europe’s commercial real estate market is stabilising. But will recovery follow and how strong will it be? Join our 20-minute online session on Wednesday 25th September at 10:00 BST as we discuss the …
23rd September 2024
NB. Our new and improved interactive Europe Commercial Property dashboard, home to key macro and commercial real estate forecasts, can be found here . Overview – The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, …
13th June 2024
Note: We will be discussing the outlook for European commercial real estate markets in a 20-minute online briefing at 10am BST on Wednesday 10th of April. (Register here .) Overview – Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the …
21st March 2024
Overview – A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests it is too early to call the bottom in prices. …
8th December 2023
Overview – With economic activity weakening, we expect rental growth to continue trending downwards over the next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched despite property yields continuing to rise at a steady pace. As a result, we have …
4th October 2023
Overview – The slowdown in rent growth at the start of this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop. And although the property price correction has slowed, we think stretched valuations will push yields higher and drive further …
3rd July 2023
Overview – Property values fell sharply in Scandinavia and Switzerland last year, but with valuations still stretched and financing set to remain challenging, we think yields will climb higher. And with economic activity weakening and supply increasing, …
4th April 2023
Overview – Emerging Europe has seen less steep falls in values than elsewhere so far, but will not be immune in 2023. Higher interest rates and economic weakness mean these markets will have a challenging year and recent financial disruption only …
31st March 2023
Click here to read the full report Overview – With valuations still highly stretched and rent growth likely to slow as the region falls into recession, we think capital values will fall further in 2023. While the 4.5% decline forecast at the all-property …
24th March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Property values in Scandinavia and Switzerland have taken a hit as yields jumped in recent quarters. With valuations still stretched, we are forecasting a further 50bps and 30bps of rises at the …
16th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Property yields have risen on the back of higher interest rates and have started to drag materially on values. We expect this to continue in 2023, as valuations are still highly stretched. Given downgrades to …
14th December 2022
Overview – Higher interest rates have already resulted in a sharp property repricing in 2022. And with valuations still highly stretched and rental prospects weaker given the imminent recession, we think values will fall further next year. However, as …
9th December 2022
Overview – A further deterioration in the economic backdrop is set to weigh on property rental growth, especially in the consumer-facing retail sector where we have revised down our rental forecasts in the near term. This comes at a time when higher …
23rd September 2022
Overview – The latest data suggest that a property repricing is already underway in response to higher interest rates and stretched valuations. We expect a cumulative rise in all-property yields of 35bps-40bps across the Scandinavian and Swiss markets …
22nd September 2022
Overview – The economic backdrop has deteriorated, with the euro-zone set to enter recession this year, while inflation has continued to beat expectations. This will weigh on property demand across all sectors, especially retail, for which we have …
16th September 2022
Overview – Weaker economic activity and higher interest rates as a consequence of the war in Ukraine will weigh on property performance in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Shifts in investor sentiment and a sharp deterioration in valuations are expected …
30th June 2022
Overview – The rapid turnaround in the interest rate environment has led us to revise down our expectations for property performance in Scandinavia and Switzerland. Property valuations deteriorated sharply in Q1 and are expected to come under more …
27th June 2022
Overview – The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think that property yields will reach their troughs …
23rd June 2022
Overview – The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on property demand, while inflation and …
30th March 2022
Overview – Property demand in the Scandinavian and Swiss markets is expected to hold up this year, as they are more insulated from the negative impacts of the war in Ukraine on economic activity. However, structural shifts will continue to cloud the …
24th March 2022
Overview – While the direct impact of the war in Ukraine is likely to be small, we think there will be indirect consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on property demand. But as …
18th March 2022
Overview – With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming quarters . Nevertheless, we think that both …
16th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks to keep interest rates on hold. While the …
14th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023, allowing interest rates to remain low. This …
9th December 2021
Overview – Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office and retail rents to end this year lower. …
24th September 2021
Overview – The economic recovery and strong investor demand are supporting the property market upturn in Scandinavia and Switzerland. However, we expect 2021 to mark the peak for returns in most markets, except for Oslo where the start of the monetary …
23rd September 2021
Overview – While the Delta variant has slowed economic activity in other parts of the world, this has not yet been the case in the euro-zone, and we are cautiously optimistic that the bloc will continue to grow. This will support the property market …
16th September 2021
Overview – With virus restrictions set to be eased further, we expect the recovery in economic activity to gather pace from Q3, which should give occupier markets a lift. But the pick-up will not be enough to prevent falls in office and retail rents this …
25th June 2021
Overview – With the recovery in economic activity already underway and further easing in virus restrictions to come, the outlook for occupier demand is encouraging. However, with structural factors also at play, this is likely to provide more support to …
24th June 2021
Overview – The easing of virus restrictions has brightened the economic outlook and prospects for occupier markets. And with rises in inflation expected to be temporary, we think monetary policy will remain highly accommodative over the next five years, …
18th June 2021
Overview – Following a year marked with sharp falls in retail rents and rising retail and office yields, the next few months for property values will continue to be dismal. We have pencilled in another drop in all-property capital values this year. With …
26th March 2021
Overview – The Swiss and Scandinavian economies and their property markets are likely to weather the pandemic better than many others in Western Europe. We expect all-property values in the region to hold steady or see small falls this year. However, even …
25th March 2021
Overview – Euro-zone prime property will likely get off more mildly than many expected at the start of the pandemic. We forecast another small fall in all-property capital values this year, with yields holding steady and rental values extending their …
18th March 2021
Overview – While vaccine developments have improved the economic outlook for the latter half of next year, the near-term weakness in economic activity means that property values will remain under pressure over the coming quarters. But even once occupier …
18th December 2020
Overview – The positive news on the vaccine has improved the economic outlook and should allow output in the Swiss and Scandinavian economies to recover to their pre-virus levels in late 2021. This will support the rental recovery. However, structural …
17th December 2020
Overview – Although the near-term economic outlook remains weak, vaccine developments pave the way for a rebound in mid-2021. However, we think that the rental recovery in property markets will be more gradual. This reflects that structural headwinds …
10th December 2020
Overview – Investment activity and rents have felt the impact of the virus, with the retail sector bearing the brunt. Indeed, after falling by around 2% this year, we think that Scandinavian retail rents will end 2020 4% lower than in 2019. And with …
28th September 2020
Overview – While economic growth is expected to continue to recover over the second half of the year, albeit at a slower pace than initially post-lockdown, it won’t be the end of falls in Emerging European property values. The sharp decline in retail …
25th September 2020
Overview – As widely expected, Q2 brought a range of disappointing data, from plunging investment volumes to further falls in retail rents. And while property values outside of retail have generally held up so far, fragile occupier demand and rising …
18th September 2020
Overview – While property values have so far been slow in responding to the virus-related fallout, economic indicators suggest that occupier demand took a hit in Q2. As a result, we think that it is only a matter of time for a repricing of property, with …
26th June 2020
Overview – The sharp reduction in economic activity over the first half of the year and prolonged uncertainty have negatively impacted investment activity and occupier demand. We expect this will flow through to rental falls and higher yields this year, …
Overview – Thin deal evidence and market uncertainty has meant that the disruption from the virus has been slow to feed through to property values. However, significant falls in economic activity in H1 and continued uncertainty about the outlook have …
19th June 2020
Overview – Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, the hit to real estate markets is still uncertain. The drop in economic output expected in the first half of this year, along with deteriorating investor sentiment will …
27th March 2020
Overview – The fast-moving pace of developments means that the impact of COVID-19 on Emerging European real estate is highly uncertain. We expect the sharp decline in economic activity and deterioration in sentiment to weigh on rental values and cause …
Overview – The ever-changing economic effects of COVID-19 mean that the impact on real estate markets is highly uncertain. It is clear that the sharp contraction in economic activity and deterioration in sentiment over the first half of the year will …
20th March 2020
Overview – A weaker outlook for bond yields in Scandinavia and Switzerland means that falls in office and industrial yields are likely to extend into 2021. However, with rental prospects weak and yields rising, retail property is expected to underperform. …
13th December 2019
Overview – We expect a further slowdown in euro-zone economic growth in 2020 to weigh on rental growth. However, with interest rates set to be cut next year and remain at this low level, there isn’t likely to be much upward pressure on bond yields over …
5th December 2019
Executive Summary – Our new forecasts reflect Scandinavian prime office yields falling in 2020 and into 2021, on the back of our lower bond yield profile. But retail property in the region faces slight yield rises as risk premia rise. In emerging Europe, …
20th September 2019
