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South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell slightly m/m in April but has returned to pre-strike levels. While this could adversely impact platinum and palladium prices in the short-term, we believe that continued power disruptions, coupled …
11th June 2015
While global grain and soybean markets remain well-supplied, prices are likely to be determined by weather-related factors over the coming months. Nevertheless, we believe that the medium-term price risks lie to the downside, especially for soybeans … …
US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week, registering the largest weekly decline since July last year. This was in contrast to the previous three weeks of data which had suggested the pace of the stock drawdown was easing. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
10th June 2015
Last month’s small increase in supply from OPEC just adds to the glut of oil already in the market and underlines the cartel’s commitment not to cut output just to support prices in the short term. … OPEC production boosted by surging Iraqi …
Data released today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that crude palm oil production continued to grow in May, albeit at a slower pace than the previous two months, while inventories hit their highest level in six months. … Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil …
Exchange stocks of base metals have generally been falling over the last month. Although some metal is merely being moved into off-market locations, low stocks could be an additional factor boosting prices when demand strengthens. … Lower stocks to help …
The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But a rebound in Ghana’s 2015/16 harvest should put downward pressure on prices later this year. … Cocoa prices to ease as Ghana’s production …
9th June 2015
The most significant event in global energy markets over the last month was the biannual OPEC meeting, where the cartel confirmed that it would maintain the current output quota of 30 million barrels per day. Elsewhere, the rally in US natural gas prices …
Global growth in apparent steel usage was just 0.6% in 2014 and was concentrated in the advanced economies. Consumption in China and a number of other key emerging markets fell. As we expect China’s usage to fall again this year, global steel demand will …
8th June 2015
Global central banks continued to buy gold for diversification purposes in April. Buying was mostly concentrated among emerging markets’ central banks, with Russia once again particularly active. … World Gold Official Reserves …
China’s commodity import volumes slipped in May but we think this was a temporary dip related to the surge in prices early in the month. We continue to expect industrial metal import demand to rebound later in the year in tandem with rising investment and …
We expect official purchases to be one of several factors that boost gold prices in the next year or two, despite the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and renewed strength in the dollar against other major currencies. The case for emerging economies …
Commodity prices have remained under pressure from continued dollar strength, although supply concerns in the past week have supported some agriculturals – notably wheat and coffee. US lumber prices continue to benefit from signs of economic recovery. …
5th June 2015
In the short term it is often hard for the price of gold to decouple from movements in US bond and currency markets – as the initially negative reaction to today’s strong US payrolls report has once again shown. Nonetheless, other factors can be more …
It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today. Oil prices even ticked up a little on the news as late speculation of an increase in the target proved unfounded. Nonetheless, renewed discussion of a “fair” price for oil, of $75 …
Over the past month investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities has continued to deteriorate. After turning negative in April, the total number of net-long non-commercial positions for eight key commodities has now fallen to the lowest level since …
We believe the prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) will benefit from increased autocatalyst demand. However, palladium is likely to outperform platinum due to the limited penetration of diesel cars in the US. … Strong US auto sales to boost PGMs …
4th June 2015
Copper demand is set to pick up strongly later in the year as US economic activity rebounds and policy loosening in China lifts demand there. Meanwhile, subdued mine supply growth will curb refined copper output. As such, we continue to expect the price …
US crude oil stocks continued to fall last week. However, the drop was the smallest since stocks began declining at the start of May … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
3rd June 2015
The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell sharply in May and under-performed other commodities. Renewed strength in the dollar coupled with subdued Chinese economic data undermined investor sentiment. … US dollar strength undermines the price …
Despite renewed strength in the US currency, precious metals prices held up well in May compared to other commodities. Silver outperformed gold (by nearly 4%), as is usual when the prices of both metals are rising. … Silver continues to outshine other …
US weekly production figures have been distorted in the last two weeks by pipeline shutdowns and statistical revisions, but they can still offer some insight into trends in US oil production. … How helpful are the US weekly oil production …
2nd June 2015
R enewed strength in the US currency undermined most commodity prices again last month, with ample supply dragging down crude oil and many agricultural too. Lingering concerns over the risk of a “hard landing” in China also weighed on some industrial …
1st June 2015
Commodity prices mostly fell in the past week, dragged lower by renewed strength in the US currency. Leading the falls, natural gas prices reversed their weather-related gains from earlier in the month, while crude oil prices softened on ample supply. … …
29th May 2015
China’s trade data for April go some way to explaining the generally weak tone of agricultural commodities prices. For the most part, import volumes were lower in year-on-year terms, in some cases reflecting high in-country stocks. … Anaemic Chinese …
The lure of a soaring stock market has surely dampened Chinese investors’ demand for gold. Correspondingly, even though we are not predicting an imminent crash, the precious metal should benefit when enthusiasm for Chinese equities does eventually cool. …
Base metals prices have struggled since the start of this year, but many have still managed to make modest gains. In contrast, tin prices have fallen. In this Metals & Mining Watch , we discuss the current state of the tin market and look at the trends …
Today’s US data provide mixed signals, with stocks of crude oil falling and demand from refineries increasing, but production rising sharply. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
28th May 2015
A fall in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in April has been more than offset by higher imports of the metal by India. Hence, we believe fears of a slowdown in demand from key emerging markets are overblown, especially if Chinese equities …
Environmental issues are becoming increasingly important drivers of demand for, and supply of, all types of energy commodities. We continue to expect demand for coal to be most negatively impacted, and oil usage is also coming increasing scrutiny, despite …
After several years of declines, we believe 2015 could be a turning point for the silver price. Lower mine supply, coupled with an increase in demand for jewellery and industrial applications, should play in favour of higher silver prices. We also …
The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 5 th June, is set to be almost as closely watched as the previous one in November. The recent rebound in oil prices has taken some of the strain off OPEC members, but …
27th May 2015
China’s detailed trade data for April paint a broadly positive picture of industrial metals demand. Meanwhile, the export surge associated with the Qingdao port scandal, as stocks were moved into more visible locations, appears to have largely run its …
26th May 2015
The past week has been a good one for commodity prices, with most recording at least a small increase. Adverse growing conditions boosted the prices of coffee and wheat, while silver again outperformed gold. However, over-supply and high stocks weighed on …
22nd May 2015
We believe that platinum and palladium markets will be significantly tighter than the consensus currently anticipates in 2015. This should lead to further price rises in the second half of the year. … Platinum and palladium markets to remain …
21st May 2015
China’s flash PMI remains subdued but the index rose for the first time since February, suggesting that recent policy stimulus could be starting to have an effect. Meanwhile, the uptick in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI could be positive for industrial …
Last week’s fall in US weekly oil stocks all but confirms that April’s highs marked the peak. What’s more, US oil production declined by the most significant amount in almost a year and demand picked up slightly. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
20th May 2015
Aluminium demand is strong and stocks are falling, but overproduction continues to constrain prices. However, the ongoing fall in price premiums is hurting the profitability of both producers and exporters and may lead to output cuts. This should boost …
Over the past month, precious metal prices have posted decent gains, led by silver. While the technical outlook is improving, investor sentiment remains broadly bearish. This suggests further price upside if speculative demand returns to the market. The …
We think that the recent surge in US natural gas prices is set to persist, driven by higher demand from power plants, lower production and the first gas exports from the US to Asia and Europe. … US natural gas prices to continue to …
19th May 2015
Weakness in the US dollar and rising oil prices would normally be considered positive for agricultural commodity prices. However, despite a 3.5% fall in the value of the US currency and a 5% rise in the price of Brent crude since the middle of April, most …
Energy and industrial metals prices have risen strongly since the middle of April, buoyed by further weakness in the US dollar and improved investor sentiment. Crude oil prices have also been supported by falls in US oil stocks and signs that US …
18th May 2015
The rebound in oil prices over the last few months has vindicated our view that oil prices had fallen too far, even if they have bounced back a little more sharply than we had anticipated. We expect stronger demand to help soak up some of the surplus …
Commodity prices have generally had a good week, helped by further soft economic data from theUS and a renewed decline in the value of the dollar against other major currencies. Thestabilisation in global bond markets after a sharp sell-off also helped …
15th May 2015
Strong demand prospects will support cobalt prices in 2015-16. However, for now, the supply picture is more than comfortable suggesting only limited scope for significant price gains. … The future looks bright for …
Weak US housing starts and high lumber imports are likely to be behind the large fall in the price of US lumber this year. But a rebound in starts over the coming months should support the price. … Is there any hope for the price of US …
The World Gold Council depicts a broadly stable picture of the gold market in Q1 in its latest World Demand Trends report, published today. While jewellery demand fell by 3% y/y, investment demand rose, as concerns over the future of the euro-zone boosted …
14th May 2015
An El Niño event does not automatically translate into higher commodity prices. Its impact on production and prices will largely depend on its strength and duration, as well as the prevailing conditions in individual commodity markets. … Which commodities …
The big news over the last month has been the ongoing rise in oil prices. The price of Brent almost touched $70 per barrel in early May on news that US oil stocks had fallen and despite being volatile prices, remain around these levels. In contrast, …
There is a renewed risk of strike action at South Africa’s platinum mines as companies are forced to restructure, leading to job cuts. We believe that the platinum market is already quite tight after last year’s strikes and any disruption to production …
13th May 2015
