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High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. … Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica …
3rd July 2015
We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if it did, the EU is in a good position to cope as stocks are reasonably high and increasing, and alternative supplies are …
The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell for the second consecutive month in June. Persistently subdued Chinese economic data and the risk of a messy Greek default and exit from the euro-zone undermined investor sentiment. … Concerns about global growth …
Gold faces important challenges as China rebalances its economy. Higher consumer spending should be positive for jewellery demand. A corresponding reduction in savings might reduce demand for gold as an investment vehicle, but the precious metal only …
2nd July 2015
The use of coal has become increasingly frowned upon in recent years with regions which account for 75% of demand actively trying to move away from the fuel and an increasing number of supranational bodies, such as the World Bank and some private funds, …
The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supplyfears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite additional Chinese policy stimulus, as a slump in Chinese …
1st July 2015
Wet conditions and lower-than-expected stocks in the US have pushed the price of soybeans to its highest level this year. But with plentiful global supplies, we don’t think the recent rally will last. … Soybean prices now more likely to fall than …
The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supply fears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite additional Chinese policy stimulus, as a slump in Chinese …
US stocks of oil unexpectedly rose last week after eight consecutive weeks of falls. However, stocks of gasoline resumed their downward trend. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
The price of palm oil has struggled to find asense of direction this year, falling below MYR2,100 per tonne in April, before recovering to MYR2,300 by early June. In this Agricultural Commodities Watch we discuss the current state of the world palm oil …
30th June 2015
The price of nickel has fallen by nearly 10% from last Friday, despite early signs of a pick-up in globalnickel demand. Given that we expect supply to become more constrained in the second half of theyear, nickel prices now have plenty of scope to rebound …
Despite “loosening” its rare earths (REE) export regime, China will continue to control global supply. As such, our view remains that REE prices are unlikely to fall much further. … China still controls its REE exports, despite “looser” …
Expectations of a strong increase in mine supply,coupled with abundant above-ground stocks,have prompted many analysts to revise down theirforecasts for platinum and palladium prices thisyear and investors to shy away. In this PreciousMetals Watch we …
29th June 2015
The prices of many agricultural commodities rose this week as adverse weather, notably in the US but also in Europe, clouded prospects for forthcoming harvests. Meanwhile, the prices of industrial commodities drifted, reflecting the uncertainty …
26th June 2015
A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they were 23% below the record level seen in April. … China’s …
Tightening supply, as a number of large mines close, is often cited as a key reason why investors and analysts have been positive on the outlook for zinc prices. However, the expected market tightness has so far failed to materialise. In this Metals & …
A mountain of sugar has been the catalyst for prices falling to a six-and-a-half year low. However, higher ethanol output in Brazil and a small world sugar deficit in 2015/16 should help to lift the price. … Slightly sweeter times ahead for the price of …
25th June 2015
In the short to medium term, rising incomes will remain the key driver of changing dietary patterns in China, particularly for meat demand. However, a shift towards consumption-led growth and increased “westernisation” of lifestyles are likely to benefit …
24th June 2015
The likely easing of sanctions on Iran is one of several downside risks to global oil prices over the remainder of the year. Admittedly, it may not be until 2016 before Iran can meet its side of any comprehensive agreement with the Western powers, so a …
The pace of the fall in crude oil stocks accelerated this week. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose but there were more positive indicators of demand with an upturn in refinery activity and strong petroleum product consumption. … US Weekly Petroleum …
China’s efforts to rebalance its economy away from investment, manufacturing and exports towards a more consumer-led growth model are likely to have major implications for all types of energy commodities. Oil demand is likely to benefit, although perhaps …
23rd June 2015
China’s import data continue to suggest that, in general, demand for agricultural commodities remains weak. The main exception is sugar, where imports surged on low world prices. … A closer look at China’s import …
Early business survey evidence for June supports our relatively positive view on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, especially metals. The latest euro-zone data are encouraging too, although we remain wary of the potential fall-out from a renewed …
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), rural households in India allocate 7-8% of their annual savings to gold. Good harvests raise income levels and translate into greater gold demand. However, the opposite is also true. A worse-than-normal monsoon …
22nd June 2015
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production grew by nearly 12% y/y in May, led by a marked increase in China’s output. Excluding China, global production rose by a more subdued 1.5% y/y. … Global Aluminium Production …
World Steel Association (WSA) data for May show a 2.1% y/y decline in global steel output, with falls in most of the largest producers. However, some recovery can be expected in coming months, notably in Japan. … Global Steel Production (May. …
The escalating crisis surrounding Greece’s negotiations with its creditors and its potentially negative implications for the euro-zone economy weighed on investor sentiment this week. Industrial metals prices were particularly hard hit as Chinese economic …
19th June 2015
A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone remain high, especially if default is followed by Greek …
Agricultural commodity prices have had mixed fortunes since mid-May, with roughly half seeing rises and half seeing falls. While concerns about supply constraints have helped support cocoa and robusta prices, the opposite is true for sugar which …
The US central bank is edging towards a first interest rate hike, most likely in September. Thereafter, we expect rates to rise faster than the markets (and Fed officials themselves) generally anticipate. Nonetheless, we think there are many good reasons …
18th June 2015
After a sharp drop last week, the pace of the fall in crude oil stocks slowed this week. At the same time, there was a modest uptick in gasoline stocks, which are now in the upper half of their long-run range. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
17th June 2015
After a strong performance between mid-April and mid-May, all four commodity sub-indices fell over the past month. The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell particularly sharply, largely due to persistently subdued demand from China. … Commodity markets …
The potential impact on precious metals demand of China’s transition to a consumption-led growth model could be substantial. We believe that palladium and platinum in particular will benefit due to their extensive use in the auto sector. … What does …
Temporary supply bottlenecks and falling stocks at Chinese ports have prompted a rally in iron ore prices since early-April. However, supply is expected to pick up strongly, at a time of only subdued demand, which should lead to a renewed downturn in …
16th June 2015
The disposal of Thailand’s remaining high-quality rice stocks should keep prices under pressure in the near-term. However, with the world market expected to tighten in 2015/16, prices should start to recover towards the end of the year. … Deterioration …
Over the past month, precious metal (PM) prices have dropped sharply. Gold has fared better than its peers, as lingering risks in Europe have cushioned the price from further losses. Both the technical outlook and investor sentiment have substantially …
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are highly sought-after chemical elements which are essential components of a wide range of products, ranging from smart phones to wind turbines and cancer-treating drugs. Data on supply, demand and even some prices are scarce, …
15th June 2015
Most commodity prices have moved in narrow ranges in the past week. US natural gas prices continued their see-saw pattern, buffeted by weather and other seasonal factors. But other markets were largely quiet. Encouragingly, the price of gold held steady …
12th June 2015
The sources of industrial metals demand will alter as China shifts away from investment-led growth, but demand should not collapse. Indeed, demand for metals used in consumer goods could benefit. … The impact of China’s “new normal” on metals …
South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell slightly m/m in April but has returned to pre-strike levels. While this could adversely impact platinum and palladium prices in the short-term, we believe that continued power disruptions, coupled …
11th June 2015
While global grain and soybean markets remain well-supplied, prices are likely to be determined by weather-related factors over the coming months. Nevertheless, we believe that the medium-term price risks lie to the downside, especially for soybeans … …
US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week, registering the largest weekly decline since July last year. This was in contrast to the previous three weeks of data which had suggested the pace of the stock drawdown was easing. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
10th June 2015
Last month’s small increase in supply from OPEC just adds to the glut of oil already in the market and underlines the cartel’s commitment not to cut output just to support prices in the short term. … OPEC production boosted by surging Iraqi …
Data released today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that crude palm oil production continued to grow in May, albeit at a slower pace than the previous two months, while inventories hit their highest level in six months. … Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil …
Exchange stocks of base metals have generally been falling over the last month. Although some metal is merely being moved into off-market locations, low stocks could be an additional factor boosting prices when demand strengthens. … Lower stocks to help …
The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But a rebound in Ghana’s 2015/16 harvest should put downward pressure on prices later this year. … Cocoa prices to ease as Ghana’s production …
9th June 2015
The most significant event in global energy markets over the last month was the biannual OPEC meeting, where the cartel confirmed that it would maintain the current output quota of 30 million barrels per day. Elsewhere, the rally in US natural gas prices …
Global growth in apparent steel usage was just 0.6% in 2014 and was concentrated in the advanced economies. Consumption in China and a number of other key emerging markets fell. As we expect China’s usage to fall again this year, global steel demand will …
8th June 2015
Global central banks continued to buy gold for diversification purposes in April. Buying was mostly concentrated among emerging markets’ central banks, with Russia once again particularly active. … World Gold Official Reserves …
China’s commodity import volumes slipped in May but we think this was a temporary dip related to the surge in prices early in the month. We continue to expect industrial metal import demand to rebound later in the year in tandem with rising investment and …
