Filtered by Subscriptions: Commodities Use setting Commodities
US stocks of oil and gasoline unexpectedly rose again last week. However, the rise in oil stocks was much smaller than in the previous week and the recent fall in oil prices should boost demand further. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
8th July 2015
The price of silver has been a notable casualty of the sell-off in commodity markets in the last few days. This is in line with the traditional pattern of under-performance by silver when the prices of other metals, especially gold but also industrials, …
We remain broadly positive on the outlook for most industrial metals prices in 2015-16 as we expect demand to pick up in the second half of this year and believe that some metals in particular may face tightening supply. But we are revising down a number …
The past month has seen a huge reversal of investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities. Surging grain and oilseed prices, on account of poor growing conditions in the US and Europe in particular, have been the catalyst for investors moving from a …
7th July 2015
The slump in equity prices in China has damaged confidence in global commodity markets, including oil and especially industrial metals. However, we think that the current negativity is overdone. While there are a few channels by which falling stock …
Exchange stocks of some base metals are at very low levels and could be a factor boosting prices later in the year. However, stocks of copper and aluminium, in particular, remain high and will act as a cushion in the event of any supply disruption. … …
The prices of precious metals have not responded as we had anticipated to the growing risks of a Greek exit (“Grexit”) from the euro. We are therefore revising our end-year forecasts for gold, silver, platinum and palladium lower, largely to reflect the …
6th July 2015
The combination of a Greek “no” vote, signs of rising US oil production, positive signals of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West as well as slowing Chinese demand for imported oil means that we are nudging down our oil price forecasts for this year …
Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and signs of recovery in the US rig count. We have been …
A lack of safe-haven flows, despite the crisis in Greece, has left the gold pricevulnerable to the prospect of US interest rate hikes later in the year. Silver hasunderperformed, as is usual when sentiment towards precious metals isnegative. The more …
3rd July 2015
It was another strong week for the prices of many agricultural commodities as the USDA’s latest report on planting and stocks stoked concerns about a deteriorating supply outlook. However, given high current stocks, we think these fears are overdone and …
High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. … Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica …
We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if it did, the EU is in a good position to cope as stocks are reasonably high and increasing, and alternative supplies are …
The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell for the second consecutive month in June. Persistently subdued Chinese economic data and the risk of a messy Greek default and exit from the euro-zone undermined investor sentiment. … Concerns about global growth …
Gold faces important challenges as China rebalances its economy. Higher consumer spending should be positive for jewellery demand. A corresponding reduction in savings might reduce demand for gold as an investment vehicle, but the precious metal only …
2nd July 2015
The use of coal has become increasingly frowned upon in recent years with regions which account for 75% of demand actively trying to move away from the fuel and an increasing number of supranational bodies, such as the World Bank and some private funds, …
The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supplyfears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite additional Chinese policy stimulus, as a slump in Chinese …
1st July 2015
Wet conditions and lower-than-expected stocks in the US have pushed the price of soybeans to its highest level this year. But with plentiful global supplies, we don’t think the recent rally will last. … Soybean prices now more likely to fall than …
The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supply fears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite additional Chinese policy stimulus, as a slump in Chinese …
US stocks of oil unexpectedly rose last week after eight consecutive weeks of falls. However, stocks of gasoline resumed their downward trend. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
The price of palm oil has struggled to find asense of direction this year, falling below MYR2,100 per tonne in April, before recovering to MYR2,300 by early June. In this Agricultural Commodities Watch we discuss the current state of the world palm oil …
30th June 2015
The price of nickel has fallen by nearly 10% from last Friday, despite early signs of a pick-up in globalnickel demand. Given that we expect supply to become more constrained in the second half of theyear, nickel prices now have plenty of scope to rebound …
Despite “loosening” its rare earths (REE) export regime, China will continue to control global supply. As such, our view remains that REE prices are unlikely to fall much further. … China still controls its REE exports, despite “looser” …
Expectations of a strong increase in mine supply,coupled with abundant above-ground stocks,have prompted many analysts to revise down theirforecasts for platinum and palladium prices thisyear and investors to shy away. In this PreciousMetals Watch we …
29th June 2015
The prices of many agricultural commodities rose this week as adverse weather, notably in the US but also in Europe, clouded prospects for forthcoming harvests. Meanwhile, the prices of industrial commodities drifted, reflecting the uncertainty …
26th June 2015
A sharp rise in mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong in May could have been driven by fears of a further correction in Chinese equities. While imports from India were up 16% y/y in May, they were 23% below the record level seen in April. … China’s …
Tightening supply, as a number of large mines close, is often cited as a key reason why investors and analysts have been positive on the outlook for zinc prices. However, the expected market tightness has so far failed to materialise. In this Metals & …
A mountain of sugar has been the catalyst for prices falling to a six-and-a-half year low. However, higher ethanol output in Brazil and a small world sugar deficit in 2015/16 should help to lift the price. … Slightly sweeter times ahead for the price of …
25th June 2015
In the short to medium term, rising incomes will remain the key driver of changing dietary patterns in China, particularly for meat demand. However, a shift towards consumption-led growth and increased “westernisation” of lifestyles are likely to benefit …
24th June 2015
The likely easing of sanctions on Iran is one of several downside risks to global oil prices over the remainder of the year. Admittedly, it may not be until 2016 before Iran can meet its side of any comprehensive agreement with the Western powers, so a …
The pace of the fall in crude oil stocks accelerated this week. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose but there were more positive indicators of demand with an upturn in refinery activity and strong petroleum product consumption. … US Weekly Petroleum …
China’s efforts to rebalance its economy away from investment, manufacturing and exports towards a more consumer-led growth model are likely to have major implications for all types of energy commodities. Oil demand is likely to benefit, although perhaps …
23rd June 2015
China’s import data continue to suggest that, in general, demand for agricultural commodities remains weak. The main exception is sugar, where imports surged on low world prices. … A closer look at China’s import …
Early business survey evidence for June supports our relatively positive view on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, especially metals. The latest euro-zone data are encouraging too, although we remain wary of the potential fall-out from a renewed …
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), rural households in India allocate 7-8% of their annual savings to gold. Good harvests raise income levels and translate into greater gold demand. However, the opposite is also true. A worse-than-normal monsoon …
22nd June 2015
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production grew by nearly 12% y/y in May, led by a marked increase in China’s output. Excluding China, global production rose by a more subdued 1.5% y/y. … Global Aluminium Production …
World Steel Association (WSA) data for May show a 2.1% y/y decline in global steel output, with falls in most of the largest producers. However, some recovery can be expected in coming months, notably in Japan. … Global Steel Production (May. …
The escalating crisis surrounding Greece’s negotiations with its creditors and its potentially negative implications for the euro-zone economy weighed on investor sentiment this week. Industrial metals prices were particularly hard hit as Chinese economic …
19th June 2015
A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone remain high, especially if default is followed by Greek …
Agricultural commodity prices have had mixed fortunes since mid-May, with roughly half seeing rises and half seeing falls. While concerns about supply constraints have helped support cocoa and robusta prices, the opposite is true for sugar which …
The US central bank is edging towards a first interest rate hike, most likely in September. Thereafter, we expect rates to rise faster than the markets (and Fed officials themselves) generally anticipate. Nonetheless, we think there are many good reasons …
18th June 2015
After a sharp drop last week, the pace of the fall in crude oil stocks slowed this week. At the same time, there was a modest uptick in gasoline stocks, which are now in the upper half of their long-run range. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
17th June 2015
After a strong performance between mid-April and mid-May, all four commodity sub-indices fell over the past month. The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell particularly sharply, largely due to persistently subdued demand from China. … Commodity markets …
The potential impact on precious metals demand of China’s transition to a consumption-led growth model could be substantial. We believe that palladium and platinum in particular will benefit due to their extensive use in the auto sector. … What does …
Temporary supply bottlenecks and falling stocks at Chinese ports have prompted a rally in iron ore prices since early-April. However, supply is expected to pick up strongly, at a time of only subdued demand, which should lead to a renewed downturn in …
16th June 2015
The disposal of Thailand’s remaining high-quality rice stocks should keep prices under pressure in the near-term. However, with the world market expected to tighten in 2015/16, prices should start to recover towards the end of the year. … Deterioration …
Over the past month, precious metal (PM) prices have dropped sharply. Gold has fared better than its peers, as lingering risks in Europe have cushioned the price from further losses. Both the technical outlook and investor sentiment have substantially …
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are highly sought-after chemical elements which are essential components of a wide range of products, ranging from smart phones to wind turbines and cancer-treating drugs. Data on supply, demand and even some prices are scarce, …
15th June 2015
Most commodity prices have moved in narrow ranges in the past week. US natural gas prices continued their see-saw pattern, buffeted by weather and other seasonal factors. But other markets were largely quiet. Encouragingly, the price of gold held steady …
12th June 2015
The sources of industrial metals demand will alter as China shifts away from investment-led growth, but demand should not collapse. Indeed, demand for metals used in consumer goods could benefit. … The impact of China’s “new normal” on metals …
