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Crude oil stocks rose last week, despite production falling and demand from refineries increasing. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell sharply. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (3rd Aug. …
3rd August 2016
The recent falls in oil prices have raised concerns that the fuel could be entering a new bear market. However, we think that oil prices are more likely to rebound a little by the end of the year than continue to fall as non-OPEC production declines and …
2nd August 2016
The prices of industrial and precious metals generally rose in July, despite a strengthening dollar for much of the month and only subdued economic data out of China. However, with investors more comfortable with risk, the recent rally in the gold price …
A sharp downturn in oil prices dragged the broad commodities indices lower last month so that equities outperformed. That said, there were pockets of strength, with nearly all the industrial metals rising in July on hopes of further policy stimulus in …
1st August 2016
Commodity prices generally drifted lower over the past week, although some support came later from a weaker US dollar. Indeed, the markets shrugged off disappointing US Q2 GDP data on Friday, given the subsequent fall in the value of the dollar and the …
29th July 2016
It has been a mixed bag for energy commodities this month, with oil and US natural gas prices falling back due to oversupply, a stronger dollar and cooler weather. On the other hand, coal prices surged, despite some disappointing economic data from China. …
After dipping in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU (Brexit), the prices of most industrial metals have rallied strongly since. They have shrugged off disappointing economic news out of China, the increased likelihood of interest rate rises in the …
28th July 2016
Increases in domestic production and net imports helped US crude stocks build last week, while inventories of petroleum products fell on strong demand. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (27th Jul. …
27th July 2016
The rally in oil prices over the first half of the year, combined with the recent pull-back, has mirrored the movements in prices in the first half of 2015. However, rather than prices continuing to slump as they did in 2015 we expect them to remain at …
LME metal stocks have fallen since the start of the year, while for the most part ShFE stocks have risen. However, summing stocks on all the major exchanges, the big moves have been a 25% drop in global aluminium stocks and a 30% rise in tin stocks. …
26th July 2016
Commodity prices have had a good few months, which is consistent with our relatively positive views on the medium-term outlook. The easing of fears about China’s economy has helped industrials, while commodities in general have benefited from hopes of an …
Gold imports by China and India fell sharply in June. However, local gold premiums point to somewhat stronger demand in July. Higher prices and temporary factors have played a role in the weakness in demand from the two largest consumers so far this year. …
We have created a Capital Economics Demand Proxy (DP) to enhance our insight into the demand fundamentals of the aluminium market and to inform our near-term price forecasts. … Shining a light on aluminium …
22nd July 2016
With a few exceptions, the prices of industrial commodities have taken another hit this week, pressured by profit taking and renewed strength in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB’s decision to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday weighed on the prices …
We expect a combination of looser monetary policy in the euro-zone, the UK and Japan and building inflationary pressures in the US to boost the prices of gold and silver over the next year or so. Admittedly, prices could drop back in the short term if the …
21st July 2016
The tightening of the oil market since the start of the year has been the main driver of the price rally over the last few months. However, there are valid concerns that stocks of oil products are rising rapidly as refineries turn excess crude into excess …
June was another strong month for China’s metals imports. In some cases, volumes dipped, but this may have been a response to rising prices rather than a sign of weaker underlying demand. … Higher prices could dampen China’s metals …
Higher demand from refineries helped to pull down crude stocks last week. But greater production of gasoline caused motor fuel inventories to rise. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (20th Jul. …
20th July 2016
World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show that global steel output was flat in year-on-year terms in June. But the weak start to the year meant that production still fell by 1.9% y/y in the first half of 2016. … Global Steel …
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output declined by 1.2% y/y. However, daily average production continues to recover in response to rising prices. … Global Aluminium Production …
The metals, both industrial and precious, have been the star performers this month as investor sentiment improved. Meanwhile, the return of supply that had been lost to unanticipated outages weighed on the oil price. And while gold initially benefitted …
19th July 2016
The price of nickel has surged in recent weeks, primarily on concerns about lower supply due to greater regulation of ore mining in the Philippines. However, stocks remain high and demand is subdued at best, suggesting that the latest rally may fade. … …
18th July 2016
The prices of riskier assets, including industrial metals as well as equities, have been boosted by hopes of additional fiscal and monetary support to mitigate any global fallout from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. As it happens, we think expectations of …
15th July 2016
South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in May, but PGM output grew strongly. This perhaps reflects producers building up their stocks in preparation for the wage negotiations with trade unions that are now underway. … South Africa’s Mine …
14th July 2016
While inventories of US crude fell again last week on the back of falling net imports, sizeable increases in gasoline and distillate fuel stocks grabbed the headlines. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Jul. …
13th July 2016
The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. … Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price …
China’s commodity import volumes continued to grow strongly in June, despite relatively subdued activity indicators. In some cases, arbitrage opportunities are encouraging Chinese buying but it also looks likely that fiscal and monetary stimulus measures …
Platinum group metals (PGMs) are primarily used in the automobile sector as catalysts for air pollution abatement in light- and heavy-duty vehicles. Auto sales in the three biggest markets, China, the euro-zone and the US, are now growing again after …
12th July 2016
Despite a spectacular 287,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, Fed funds futures are still only pricing in a 50% chance of a US interest rate hike by the end of 2017. This dovish spin allowed the price of gold to rebound on Friday after an initial …
8th July 2016
The slump in oil prices since 2014 poses a bigger threat to North Sea output than the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, heightened uncertainty, potential tax changes and the possibility of another Scottish independence referendum could all …
US crude and gasoline stocks fell again last week, but the dramatic fall in US crude oil production has stolen at least some of the limelight. … US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (7th Jul. …
7th July 2016
The latest data suggest that gold demand from the official sector remained subdued in May. However, we expect this to be only temporary as central banks continue to diversify away from the US dollar. Gold’s appeal as a reserve asset also continues to be …
The UK’s decision to vote in favour of leaving the European Union in a nationwide referendum on 23 rd June – or ‘Brexit’ – has already boosted the prices of precious metals. The prospects for both gold and (riskier) silver over the coming years are …
6th July 2016
The price of palm oil rallied strongly in early 2016 on a combination of smaller harvests, rising soybean (and soy oil) prices and a rally in crude oil prices. These factors more than offset the negative impact of lacklustre demand. However, we forecast …
5th July 2016
The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels which may start to tempt some of that supply back to the …
We are now even more positive on aluminium demand in the near-term, based partly on our new Capital Economics Demand Proxy, but believe that supply growth will put a lid on prices by end-year. … Aluminium demand is stronger than often …
4th July 2016
The prices of both industrial and precious metals have jumped in the last month, despite falling initially in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on 23rd June. Prices subsequently recovered on hopes that signs of weak economic activity in China will …
The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by nearly 20% in US dollar terms in the past month to within …
1st July 2016
Commodities outperformed equities in June as the UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union sapped risk appetite in global markets. Gold prices predictably benefited from the heightened uncertainty, with silver the star of the month. But industrial …
The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by 20% in US dollar terms in the past month to within touching …
With fears over the impact of the UK’s potential exit from the EU having faded, the focus of commodity markets may soon return to China’s economy and currency. The third successive monthly fall in China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI does not bode well …
The sharp drops in the prices of riskier assets, including oil, after the UK voted to leave the EU have dominated headlines. However, oil prices are now more or less back to their pre-Brexit levels, whilst natural gas and coal prices have been more …
US inventories of crude oil fell sharply in the week to 24 th June, on the back of constrained supply and higher refinery demand, but gasoline stocks rose again. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
29th June 2016
Disruptions to oil supplies in Canada and Nigeria have been behind most of the rally in oil prices over the past month. However, demand has also been growing strongly and we do not think that Brexit will dampen it by much, if at all, in the near term. …
Following downward revisions to our projections for China’s growth, we are also nudging down our forecast for the price of copper. Despite sizeable policy stimulus in China, it has become apparent that credit allocation has been relatively inefficient …
Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan, three major car makers , have recently announced plans to start selling long-range affordable electric vehicles (EVs) over the next few years. This could potentially be a game-changer for the global auto market as it could …
28th June 2016
China’s gold imports rebounded strongly in May, after a weak start to the year. While premiums in the local market have recently turned negative, Brexit fears could spur a fresh wave of safe-haven buying over the coming months. Meanwhile, India’s imports …
27th June 2016
Unsurprisingly, the prices of most commodities have fallen in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The main exception is gold, which has benefitted from renewed safe-haven demand as well as the expectation that the uncertainty created by the UK vote …
24th June 2016
The UK’s vote to leave the EU has predictably undermined the prices of industrial commodities, including oil (which initially fell by around 5% in US dollar terms) and copper (-3%), while boosting those of safe havens such as gold (+5%). However, these …
US inventories of crude oil fell again last week, but by less than expected. On the other hand, gasoline stocks rose as refineries pumped out more fuel. … US Weekly Petroleum Status …
22nd June 2016
