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Higher aluminium prices and lower production costs should incentivise Europe’s smelters to restart some production in both 2024 and 2025. The introduction of CBAM in 2026 means prices will then probably trade at a premium to other regions, particularly as …
15th February 2024
The precipitous drop in US natural gas prices won’t persist for the rest of the year. Prices should rise by Q4 as US production growth slows and LNG exports rise. US natural gas prices have collapsed recently, falling around 18% week-on-week and 23% …
14th February 2024
The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices means that, if anything, overall incomes are likely to …
We think the huge expansion in nickel supply will keep the market balance in a sizeable surplus this year. Accordingly, we don’t think the price will muster a recovery from its recent slump. The nickel price has been under consistent downward pressure …
12th February 2024
The price of cocoa was the star performer this week in commodity markets , rising by 16% on the week. The price has risen by 40% since the start of this year, on the back of consistently poor harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Meanwhile, conflict in the …
9th February 2024
After a sweet start to the year, sugar prices should take on a more sour note over the rest of 2024. Prices will fall back as El Niño comes to an end and the supply outlook improves but any relaxation of India’s sugar export curbs will only be modest. …
8th February 2024
Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary policy in most major economies is loosened. By …
6th February 2024
Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile is likely to struggle to substantially raise copper and …
Energy prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. If energy production continues to be largely unaffected, we expect most prices to fall further by the end of the year. Greater …
5th February 2024
We have revised down our forecast for US natural gas prices this year, as the outlook for domestic supply has improved. In the near term, a perfect storm of impediments to exports has emerged and sent spot prices tumbling. Henry Hub was down by over 20% …
2nd February 2024
Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic growth in advanced economies. In addition, construction activity in China is robust and we think support for property developers will stabilise the sector and …
China's PMI surveys showed some signs of strengthening in January. But we still think they understate the strength of metals demand, which we expect to hold up fairly well this year. The latest China PMI surveys continue to tell slightly different …
1st February 2024
We forecast that global lithium demand will roughly double by 2025 (from 2022). But supply will increase at a slower pace, which is why we forecast that prices will rise. Demand for lithium has surged in recent years, from 50,000 tonnes per year in …
31st January 2024
Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to raise production capacity to 13mn bpd, we think looming …
30th January 2024
JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption paint a nuanced picture of global energy demand. While oil demand growth slowed towards the end of last year, consumption of natural gas was recovering from the worst of the energy price crisis. We …
29th January 2024
It was generally a positive week for commodity prices and particularly for industrial metals prices. (See Chart 1.) All major industrial metals finished the week higher, with gains in the region of ~5% for some such as tin and zinc. Chart 1: S&P GSCI …
26th January 2024
Output stagnant last year, more of the same in 2024 Global steel production reportedly stagnated last year. We think it probably will again in 2024 as a drop in production in China should offset increasing output by most other producers. According to the …
25th January 2024
Compared to their pre-pandemic averages, metals prices are high even after adjusting for inflation. We think that as green transition-related demand increases and monetary easing gets underway, real metal prices have further to rise in the coming years. …
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
Production growth will probably soften further in 2024 Global aluminium production growth slowed to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.9% in 2022. We think softening output growth in China will cause global growth to fall back again this year. According to the …
22nd January 2024
Why are natural gas markets so sanguine? Qatar’s decision to avoid sending LNG tankers through the Red Sea, and the continued exchange of military strikes between the US and Houthis did little to stop natural gas prices falling this week. In Europe prices …
19th January 2024
After a subdued 2023, we think the copper price will fare much better this year. We expect supply growth to moderate, while demand growth will be bolstered by the green transition. The copper price ended 2023 almost flat on the year. Consumption growth, …
Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, gas prices are still very high in the EU and …
Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the tide is turning once again. This partly reflects declines in key input costs such as lithium, as well as huge growth in global manufacturing capacity, particularly …
18th January 2024
The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy-intensive activity in the bloc set to stay weak, and …
17th January 2024
Perhaps surprisingly, the latest escalation in Middle East tensions has not prompted a surge in oil prices. We think this is because, so far, oil output is unaffected. Moreover, we suspect it also reflects concerns about weak demand, strong supply growth …
16th January 2024
The Middle East continued to be the focus of commodity markets although most prices ended the week either relatively unchanged or lower. The escalation of Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent retaliatory military strikes by the US and UK did support …
12th January 2024
China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. China’s export volumes edged up in December and remained close to a record high fuelled …
The surge in US exports of energy over the coming five years will ensure that the US remains a major supplier of fossil fuels to the rest of the world. A large proportion of these exports will be LNG, as new export terminals come online. But exports of …
10th January 2024
This week was a mixed bag for commodities . Gold and silver prices fell as US interest rate expectations rose and the dollar strengthened. By contrast, natural gas prices in the US and Europe edged higher on the back of forecasts for colder weather in the …
5th January 2024
Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not been directly affected, but the Israel-Hamas conflict together with the tensions in the Red Sea have increased volatility in energy markets. We expect oil …
4th January 2024
Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote refinery and President Tinubu’s broader plans to …
Interest rate cuts across advanced economies this year will give some boost to economic activity, although it will remain relatively subdued. Nonetheless, industrial metals demand growth will pick up. Supply growth will cap price rises for some metals, …
3rd January 2024
China PMI surveys suggest that the economy lost momentum in December, but we suspect that the surveys are not reflecting economic reality. Activity and import data all point to resilient commodity demand. Either way, the construction PMI rose again last …
2nd January 2024
While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was seemingly driven by the shipping chaos . A perfect storm …
22nd December 2023
The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy consumption will increase markedly, fossil fuel usage is …
21st December 2023
Another monthly fall in China, but the US and India to remain at full blast The monthly falls in China’s steel production continued in November, but output over the year is almost certain to be higher than in 2022. Production in India grew quickly and …
More subdued production growth likely over the coming months After hitting a new record in October, global aluminium production slipped back in November. We suspect that the new record will not be toppled in the coming months owing to power rationing in …
20th December 2023
The attacks in the Red Sea are the third major disruption to maritime transport this year, alongside low water levels in the Panama Canal and collapse of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Much will depend on how long the disruptions last, but we think that they …
19th December 2023
This week was a tale of two halves. In the first, prices generally came under pressure , including oil which continued its post-OPEC+ meeting plunge as concerns of oversupply persist. There were signs later in the week that those concerns have some good …
15th December 2023
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to rise in 2024 as major central banks loosen monetary policy and economic activity starts to pick up. Meanwhile, China’s policymakers have taken steps to support the ailing property sector, which should be less …
The target from COP28 to triple global renewable generating capacity this decade is encouragingly ambitious. But as our Climate Reporting Tools show, the goal will be easier to achieve in some countries than others, and attention will also be needed on …
14th December 2023
The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades. While we wouldn’t go as far as classifying the greenback …
12th December 2023
Europe’s natural gas price will continue its downward trend in 2024-25 as more LNG supply enters the market . And while there may be some recovery in demand as prices fall, we think there has been a structural shift down in European gas consumption. While …
8th December 2023
In the absence of major news, the majority of commodity prices drifted lower this week. Oil prices fell 4-5% as scepticism around the effectiveness of OPEC’s latest production cuts took hold, and China’s trade data showed a marked drop in oil imports in …
China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of looser fiscal policy, but current high stocks could …
7th December 2023
Even though zinc supply growth is likely to remain solid owing to strong growth in China and easing input cost constraints in Europe, we think that those factors will be outstripped by a recovery in demand. As such, our forecast is for the zinc price to …
Cocoa prices neared a 45-year high in November on the back of concerns about supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Constrained supply alongside high seasonal demand will, in our view, continue to support high cocoa prices through 2024, until new supply …
6th December 2023
Rising OPEC+ output in Q2 2024 should leave global crude supply less constrained than we had previously expected. This, together with only modest growth in global oil demand, should push the crude market into a small surplus in Q4. Accordingly, we have …
4th December 2023
