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At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed th rough and that output gradually increases from October, pushing the crude market …
4th June 2024
OPEC+ keep screws tight for another quarter The agreement by OPEC+ to rollover voluntary production cuts for another quarter will, in our view, push the crude oil market into a sizeable deficit in Q3. Oil supply will be more constrained than we had …
3rd June 2024
The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production cuts into the second half of this year. But a host of …
31st May 2024
Natural gas bucks the trend In a week dominated by sharp falls in oil and precious metals prices, the 12% jump in European natural gas prices has been a notable outlier. Although the front-month TTF benchmark price has slipped back in trading today, at …
24th May 2024
The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as traditional demand for both metals has in the past. That said, …
23rd May 2024
The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power within Iran means that there is unlikely to be a major …
20th May 2024
Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry consolidation, productivity improvements running out of steam, and …
The second consecutive monthly reduction in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2024 oil demand growth forecast this week further widened the wedge between the IEA’s and OPEC’s near-term outlooks. Against the backdrop of the recent falls in oil prices …
17th May 2024
This interactive dashboard allows you to explore our energy market forecasts through to 2050, which are characterised by continued growth in energy consumption and an accelerating shift to renewables . The dashboard was last updated on 23rd April 2024. …
The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking even more overstretched. Although the fundamentals will …
15th May 2024
This interactive dashboard displays the commodity charts to watch and allows you to explore our price forecasts. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this redesigned dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top right of …
This note answers some of the most frequently asked questions that we received from clients during a recent online briefing about the latest US tariffs on China. Watch the original briefing here . What has been announced? Yesterday was the end of a …
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
With less than a month to go until OPEC+ meets to decide upon its next policy move, rumours are heating up as to what its move will be. Last week, anonymous OPEC+ sources suggested that the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts would be extended once again, …
10th May 2024
We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. ( View a recording here .) This Update answers several of the questions that we received. Q1: What Middle East escalation scenario do you consider …
The surplus in the zinc market will shrink a little this year, as recovering raw material supply and a pick-up in refined output is offset by a boost to demand from a cyclical recovery in China. That said, prices are likely to fall this year from their …
9th May 2024
We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect oil supply have eased. Natural gas prices in the US …
8th May 2024
The fall in oil prices since Iran and Israel’s back-and-forth attacks suggests that some of the risk premium in prices has now unwound. Prices continue to be supported by OPEC+ production cuts but we suspect that members will gradually unwind these cuts …
7th May 2024
The strong rally in industrial metals prices seems stretched and, as a result, we expect prices to ease lower by end-year. After all, while industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by a combination of interest rate cuts, a recovery in …
The 6% fall in the price of Brent oil this week, to around $84 per barrel at the time of writing, was at least partly driven by receding fears that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East could imperil oil supply. That said, geopolitics in the …
3rd May 2024
China’s PMI surveys for April suggest the economy continues to grow at a faster pace than a few months ago which is providing support for commodity demand. Today’s Politburo statement signalled that the policy support that has lifted the economy will be …
30th April 2024
Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough factor to alter the global oil market balance. What’s …
In a mixed week for commodity prices, one interesting development is that, after the tin price reached multi-year highs at the end of last week, copper followed suit this week by topping $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the …
26th April 2024
A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall throughout the rest of this decade. All this supports our view …
23rd April 2024
In a week that started with Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel and which ended with Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran , it is somewhat surprising that the price of Brent crude fell by over 3% w/w. It would be easy just to explain the move by …
19th April 2024
Recent increases in natural gas prices in Europe have predictably been mirrored in the EU carbon price, which has risen from a 31-month low of €52 per tonne in February to €71 at the time of writing. The rise in European natural gas prices has been driven …
18th April 2024
The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower rates should be positive for commodity prices but, …
16th April 2024
Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one expires on Thursday. A rise in key oil exports would help the …
This year’s falls in iron ore prices are likely to have been a dress rehearsal for what's ahead. Our China team’s forecast for the property sector to halve by the end of the decade does not bode well for iron ore producers’ plans to ramp up production. …
We think that any impact from the suspension of trading of Russian metal on the LME and CME is likely to be muted, given that trade flows have already shifted markedly and it is unlikely to impact supply. The US and UK announced fresh sanctions on Russia …
15th April 2024
There are clearly many ways in which tensions between Iran and Israel could escalate and push up oil prices following the Iranian drone strike at the weekend. But the risk that a conflict involving Iran disrupts oil production in the Gulf states is much …
The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week, with gold prices breaking a new intra-day record …
12th April 2024
We think the price of gold will ease back from current record highs by end-2024, but falling US Treasury yields and some softness in the US dollar will keep the price elevated. Similarly, we expect the silver price to fall, but it will outperform gold. We …
China’s energy and industrial metal imports were generally strong in the first quarter. We expect them to hold up well in the coming months as fiscal stimulus continues to support construction activity, but we expect import growth to subside later in the …
In light of our China team’s new non-consensus view that an aggressive slowdown in property sector construction seems almost inevitable in the years ahead, we have revised our price forecasts. We now expect prices to generally flatline in 2025, before …
10th April 2024
A resurgence in hydropower in China this year combined with the continued rapid expansion of its wind, solar and nuclear power capabilities may pave the way for 2024 to mark the start of a steady decline in China’s coal demand. But a contraction in demand …
Wheat prices have been in decline for most of the past two years. We think that they are now near their trough, but the prospect of another good global harvest in 2024/25 means that we shouldn’t see a notable uptick in prices any time soon. Wheat prices …
9th April 2024
The prices of oil and gold increased sharply this week . The price of Brent rose to over $90 per barrel on fears that Iran could start to play a greater role in the Israel-Hamas conflict. And earlier in the week, OPEC+ reaffirmed its output restraint in …
5th April 2024
US steelmakers are preparing for robust growth in steel demand over the next few years, however we think those expectations will fall flat. Steel demand from property construction is likely to fall further and we expect softer demand for consumer durables …
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent months and this should continue to support …
4th April 2024
China’s PMI surveys in March are consistent with some improvement in economic activity and solid commodities demand. We think that government stimulus will continue to boost economic activity in the coming months and in turn support the prices of most …
2nd April 2024
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are tiny. More coal is exported from Baltimore, but the scale …
28th March 2024
Further attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refining sector were the major driver of crude prices this week with the price of Brent remaining firmly above $85 per barrel. Reports that the US had urged Ukraine to halt the strikes may have tempered the price …
22nd March 2024
Production records a bright start to 2024 The robust increase in global steel production since the beginning of the year probably has a bit further to run since there are few signs that the two largest producers – China and India – will slow their supply …
China to drive output growth in coming months The drop in global aluminium production in February should be a blip now that output curbs in China’s Yunnan province due to power constraints have been lifted. According to the International Aluminium …
20th March 2024
It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s oil refineries. While, in …
15th March 2024
We expect global crude production to rise by around 2.5% in 2025 as the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary supply cuts stretches all through next year. But non-OPEC+ oil producing nations will also play their part in raising supply even if we think US oil …
14th March 2024
The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain. Our central case is that sanctions don’t prevent …
13th March 2024
We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under prices. Natural gas and coal prices will also fall owing …
12th March 2024
Oil prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. Prices were supported by the OPEC+ decision to roll over production cuts until Q3. We expect that the group will gradually unwind …
11th March 2024
