Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Markets Use setting UK Markets
The narrow M0 measure of the money supply is still being kept high by the Bank of England’s asset purchases, but the broad money aggregates remain much weaker. That said, September’s figures on money and lending were the most encouraging in several …
20th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances (Sep.) …
The recent rise in consumer confidence may not be sustained. But for now, it is big-ticket items that seem most likely to benefit from the improvement in sentiment. … Big-ticket items benefit most from rising consumer …
19th October 2009
At its September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee noted the importance of earnings growth for the inflation outlook and suggested that firms had in part squeezed pay to offset the effect of rising import costs. Without a further fall in sterling, …
14th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (Aug./Sep.) …
There are have been suggestions that the adverse impact on the economy of the coming fiscal tightening will be largely or wholly offset by the positive effects of the fall in the sterling exchange rate. Indeed, the Conservative Party has advanced this …
The recent improvement in consumer confidence might give Gordon Brown hope that he can emulate John Major and pull off an unlikely election victory in the aftermath of a deep recession. But much hinges on how the economic recovery develops and whether …
13th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Sep.) …
The yield on inflation-indexed bonds may increase at the outset of a recovery if markets expect the authorities to raise interest rates in real – as well as nominal – terms. However, real yields have fallen sharply recently – especially in the UK. This …
12th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Aug.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) …
9th October 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has made it clear that it wants to wait until November before re-assessing its programme of asset purchases, so today’s no-change decision was of little surprise. But with the economic recovery fragile and quantitative …
8th October 2009
The latest Nationwide consumer confidence survey supports the upbeat message from the other main measures of consumer sentiment. Whilst this will clearly boost hopes of a decent consumer recovery, the pick-up in confidence needs to be interpreted with …
7th October 2009
The proposed cuts in public spending set out by the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne at the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester are likely to be just the first small step towards the biggest and most painful fiscal squeeze seen …
6th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Sep.) …
5th October 2009
Headlines over the past month have been dominated by the steps needed to reduce the public sector deficit, with Prime Minister Gordon Brown finally uttering the “c” word and talking about cutting government spending. The public finances have continued to …
2nd October 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has made it fairly clear that it will wait until November before deciding whether to extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme again. This will coincide with the completion of the current set of asset purchases and …
1st October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit manufacturing (Sep.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Index of Services (Jul.), Cons. Conf. (Sep.) & Productivity (Q2) …
30th September 2009
The Q2 National Accounts suggested that households have gone some way to repairing their finances. However, we think that this process has much further to go. … Saving rate still some way from …
29th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts (Q2), M4 & H’hold borrowing (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Sep.) …
23rd September 2009
Despite the recent rise in share prices, firms’ pension funds remain in a sorry state. This is just one of the reasons why domestic demand is unlikely to help to drive the economic recovery. … Pension deficits another constraint on investment …
21st September 2009
There are still only tentative signs that quantitative easing (QE) is starting to boost the broad money supply. Money growth is certainly still below the rates consistent with a decent economic recovery. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
18th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances (Aug.) …
Corporate bond spreads have ground even tighter over the past month. Aside from the improvement in the incoming economic data, which has reduced required compensation for the risk of default, the ongoing rally has been aided by better liquidity. This can …
17th September 2009
The recent strength of high street spending has been impressive, but we may now be seeing the first signs of a slowdown. Even if the resilience lasts a bit longer, the outlook for next year looks pretty bleak. Not only is unemployment still rising and pay …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Aug.) & CBI Ind. Trends (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (Jul./Aug.) …
16th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Aug.) & MPC Testimony …
15th September 2009
The maintenance of historically low levels of short-dated bond yields alongside the strong rally in the equity market has prompted much talk of a “bond-equity conundrum”, in which the two markets appear to be anticipating vastly different outcomes for the …
11th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Aug) …
10th September 2009
Having only extended its quantitative easing programme last month, the Monetary Policy Committee was always likely to sit on its hands today. But with the economic outlook still highly uncertain and few signs that its previous asset purchases are having …
The recent improvement in the tone of the domestic economic data and some upward revisions to our global economic forecasts have led us to nudge our forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2010 a bit higher. But we still expect the UK recovery to lag behind those …
9th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Jul.) …
8th September 2009
August’s UK car registration figures showed that the scrappage scheme introduced in May is giving a sizeable boost to new car sales. But it is likely to give only a minimal boost to the overall economy. … Scrappage scheme boosts car sales – but wider …
4th September 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to alter its quantitative easing (QE) programme at this meeting, given that it was only last month that it voted to extend the policy. Nonetheless, we see scope for the policy to be extended again later this …
3rd September 2009
CPI inflation was unchanged in July and is still being slow to fall compared with other countries. However, this primarily reflects the impact of the lower pound and this effect should now be easing. The more important influence on inflation over the …
Today’s figures on banks’ debt write-offs are a reminder that, whilst the biggest losses on so-called “toxic” assets may be behind us, the recession-related losses on conventional loans to firms and households are only just starting to come through. … …
1st September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK M4, Lending & CIPS/Markit Manufacturing (Jul./Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q2) …
28th August 2009
